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Cusp catastrophe theory: Application to the housing market
Kořínek, Vojtěch ; Kukačka, Jiří (advisor) ; Nevrla, Matěj (referee)
The bachelor's thesis applies the stochastic cusp catastrophe model to the housing market of the United States. Weekly data over the period from 2007 to 2017 are used. The current catastrophe theory literature related to the housing market is reviewed, the models found are assessed and expanded. Specifically, we have identified three deficiencies of the catastrophe models applied to housing market in the current literature and our contribution lies in the elimination of these deficiencies. In order to satisfy the constant volatility assumption of the model, the state variable is normalized by the estimated volatility derived from GARCH. Furthermore, multiple control variables are added to the model to represent the activity of fundamentalists and chartists. The results suggest that the cusp catastrophe model fits the data better than the linear and logistic models. The normalization of the state variable improves the model performance while the introduction of the additional control variables does not produce better results. Keywords Housing market, catastrophe theory, stochastic cusp catastrophe model, hous- ing bubble, real estate, fundamental investors, speculation. 1
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The Developmental Typology of the Fastest Growing Portion of the Metropolitan USA in the Decade from 2000 to 2010
Kohl, Ondřej ; Jeleček, Leoš (advisor) ; Ouředníček, Martin (referee)
This text was written as a diploma thesis of master's degree study course "Regional and political geography." It focuses on the development between the last two censuses, of the fastest growing metropolitan areas in the United States. The economic crisis of the late 2000s has been a major turning point of the decade. The goal of the research was to create a developmental typology of the fastest growing metros. The text analyzes "classifiers" data in order to decide what developmental types have been among the metros. A major factor contributing to high population gains in the fastest growing metros was the migration induced by the housing bubble.
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Determinants of residential real estate prices in the Baltic States
Rákosníková, Andrea ; Hlaváček, Michal (advisor) ; Hanzlík, Petr (referee)
The burst of the housing bubble on the US market, that contributed to the start of the Great Recession, was a warning sign to many economists. Consequently, the last decade birthed important studies analysing the real estate market in the search for the driving determinants of the housing prices. This thesis continues these efforts by time series analysis of the determinants of residential real estate prices in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. The VECM analysis showed that the importance of classic housing determinants differs from country to country. The price persistence is a crucial determinant of the Baltics' housing prices in the short run, but only Estonia and Lithuania showed the persistence in the long run. Latvian house price index seems to be very affected by the construction cost index, and therefore supply side of the housing market. The model also suggested an unexpected negative relationship between house and rent prices. The analysis was however done on relatively short time series and that could cause some discrepancies in the results as well. The author also used the P/I and P/R ratios and the Hodrick-Prescott filter to analyse the housing prices in the search of possible overvaluation, and concluded that these measures do not seem to indicate the existence of the housing bubble in...
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Cusp catastrophe theory: Application to the housing market
Kořínek, Vojtěch ; Kukačka, Jiří (advisor) ; Nevrla, Matěj (referee)
The bachelor's thesis applies the stochastic cusp catastrophe model to the housing market of the United States. Weekly data over the period from 2007 to 2017 are used. The current catastrophe theory literature related to the housing market is reviewed, the models found are assessed and expanded. Specifically, we have identified three deficiencies of the catastrophe models applied to housing market in the current literature and our contribution lies in the elimination of these deficiencies. In order to satisfy the constant volatility assumption of the model, the state variable is normalized by the estimated volatility derived from GARCH. Furthermore, multiple control variables are added to the model to represent the activity of fundamentalists and chartists. The results suggest that the cusp catastrophe model fits the data better than the linear and logistic models. The normalization of the state variable improves the model performance while the introduction of the additional control variables does not produce better results. Keywords Housing market, catastrophe theory, stochastic cusp catastrophe model, hous- ing bubble, real estate, fundamental investors, speculation. 1
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The Developmental Typology of the Fastest Growing Portion of the Metropolitan USA in the Decade from 2000 to 2010
Kohl, Ondřej ; Jeleček, Leoš (advisor) ; Ouředníček, Martin (referee)
This text was written as a diploma thesis of master's degree study course "Regional and political geography." It focuses on the development between the last two censuses, of the fastest growing metropolitan areas in the United States. The economic crisis of the late 2000s has been a major turning point of the decade. The goal of the research was to create a developmental typology of the fastest growing metros. The text analyzes "classifiers" data in order to decide what developmental types have been among the metros. A major factor contributing to high population gains in the fastest growing metros was the migration induced by the housing bubble.
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Krachy na finančních trzích
Tran Dinh, Khanh ; Stádník, Bohumil (advisor) ; Brodani, Jana (referee)
The aim of this work is description and analysis of the phenomena which suddenly cause unexpected and sharp decline in the financial markets, called crashes or collapses. This work is divided into theoretical and practical part. The theoretical part deals with the definition of the financial market and its crash, in addition, this part provides an overview of the theories explaining the origin of the speculative bubble and its bursting. The object of practical part is to describe occurred events in the financial markets in order to determine the possible causes, circumstances and consequences of these crashes.
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The Spanish economic crisis and its influence on the Czech export
Heriánová, Tereza ; Čajka, Radek (advisor) ; Bolotov, Ilya (referee)
This diploma thesis explores the internal economic problems of Spain and their influence on specific sectors of the Czech industry. The aim of the thesis is to evaluate threats and opportunities presented by the Spanish economic crisis to the Czech export. The thesis also selects those sectors of the Czech industry, which have the potential of growth on the Spanish market. The first part of the document describes the development of the Spanish economy after the accession to the European Communities. In this period the first Spanish economic troubles started to appear. The second part is dedicated to the business relations between the Czech Republic and Spain. The influence of the Spanish economic crisis on the Czech export is the main objective of the last, third part of the thesis. In the end of this part we can find the concrete business opportunities for the Czech exporters for the year 2016.
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Impact of the american mortgage crisis on the economy of Iceland
Radilová, Eva ; Antoš, Ondřej (advisor) ; Jílek, Josef (referee)
This paper concentrates on the beginning of the mortgage crisis on the United States mortgage market. It deals with its global and local impacts and explains its origin against the economic background. After that it fluently continues with describing the origins of the Icelandic crisis. It is mentioned in this part that despite the economic boom the origins of the crisis had arisen at that time. After the burst the progression of the crisis including its impacts on macroeconomic indicators is described in this document. In conclusion the Icelandic crisis is being explained on the economic theory basis, compared to the American crisis and the question if Iceland was really a victim of the subprime mortgage crisis is answered there.
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Causes of the American mortgage crisis
Deutschel, Lukáš ; Antoš, Ondřej (advisor) ; Urban, Luděk (referee)
This bachelor work deals with American mortgage crisis and concentrates on causes of this crisis. The first part of the work describes mortgage market in USA and problem segment of subprime mortgages. The second part analyses causes of the crisis with focusing on origin of housing bubble, monetary policy of FED, role of rating agencies and securitization process. The last part of the work touches on anti-crisis government's actions into U.S. economy.
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The Financial Crisis and Impact on the Banking Sector
Parmová, Sandra ; Schönfeld, Jaroslav (advisor) ; Smrčka, Luboš (referee)
This bachelor thesis is focused on the current financial crisis, which started in the USA and now is influencing the global economy as a whole. The first part of the work describes mortgage market in the USA, the problematic segment of sub-prime mortgages, the securitization process and the most important events that lead to the current financial and economic crisis. In the second part I deal with changes and impact on the banking sector. I describe the bank structure in the USA, in western Europe and in the Czech Republic. The last chapter is monitoring the Czech economy and the banking market. This thesis is completed by charts and pictures that should help the reader imagine the progression of this crisis.
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