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Gold in Central Bank Reserves and Price Stability
Melnychuk, Olena ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Dědek, Oldřich (referee)
There is a traditional view that central banks should hold enough gold in their reserves to be considered financially secure and keep low inflation. However, after the fall of the Bretton-Woods system, many central banks have been decreasing its gold reserves by converting gold into other assets and still they do not experience high inflation. This thesis aims to answer the question if gold reserves of central banks indeed positively affect price stability. We use the panel data for 110 countries for the period from 2000 to 2016. We find that there is a significant negative effect of central banks' gold reserves on inflation but only if we control the proxy variables for the financial strength of central banks. Furthermore, the significance holds only for the inflation-targeting countries, there are no significant effects for the whole data sample. JEL Classification: E31, E52, E58, F41, G11, G21 Keywords: Gold reserves, Central Banks, Inflation rate, Price Stability Author's e-mail: 73099909@fsv.cuni.cz Supervisor's e-mail: tomas.havranek@fsv.cuni.cz
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Do Central Bank FX Reserves Matter for Inflation?
Keblúšek, Martin ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Holub, Tomáš (referee)
01 Abstract Foreign exchange reserves are a useful tool and a buffer but maintaining an amount that is too large can be costly to the economy. Recent accumulation of these reserves points to the importance of this topic. This thesis focuses on one specific part of the effect of FX reserves on the economy - the inflation. I use panel data for 74 countries from the year 1996 to the year 2017. There is a certain degree of model uncertainty for which this thesis accounts for by using Bayesian model averaging (BMA) estimation technique. The findings from my model averaging estimations show FX reserves to not be of importance for inflation determination with close to no change when altering lags, variables, when limiting the sample to fixed FX regimes nor when limiting the sample to inflation targeting regimes. The most important variables are estimated to be a central bank financial strength proxy, exchange rate depreciation, money supply, inflation targeting, and capital account openness. These results are robust to lag changes, prior changes, and for the most part remain the same when Pooled OLS is used.
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Gold in Central Bank Reserves and Price Stability
Melnychuk, Olena ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Dědek, Oldřich (referee)
There is a traditional view that central banks should hold enough gold in their reserves to be considered financially secure and keep low inflation. However, after the fall of the Bretton-Woods system, many central banks have been decreasing its gold reserves by converting gold into other assets and still they do not experience high inflation. This thesis aims to answer the question if gold reserves of central banks indeed positively affect price stability. We use the panel data for 110 countries for the period from 2000 to 2016. We find that there is a significant negative effect of central banks' gold reserves on inflation but only if we control the proxy variables for the financial strength of central banks. Furthermore, the significance holds only for the inflation-targeting countries, there are no significant effects for the whole data sample. JEL Classification: E31, E52, E58, F41, G11, G21 Keywords: Gold reserves, Central Banks, Inflation rate, Price Stability Author's e-mail: 73099909@fsv.cuni.cz Supervisor's e-mail: tomas.havranek@fsv.cuni.cz
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The position and activities of the European Central Bank
Matoušková, Hana ; Kotáb, Petr (advisor) ; Kohajda, Michael (referee)
The aim of this diploma thesis is to evaluate what influence has the ECB decision-making on the Eurozone economy and above all to consider the ECB's involvement in solving of the recent financial and persisting European debt crisis. First two chapters represent rather a theoretical part of the thesis, in which the author is dealing generally with the importance and the role of the ECB in the course of the European integration, including its origin, its management structure and internal decision-making process. The second chapter focuses in detail on the ECB's tasks and competencies with emphasise mainly on the monetary policy and on the clarification how a so called transmission mechanism enables the measures adopted within the monetary policy to transform into the real economy. There is also more elaborated the primary task of ECB which is to maintain the price stability. The second part of this thesis is more analytical and reflects current trends and development in the EU banking sector with an accent on the ECB's attitudes. The recent financial crisis is discussed in the third chapter together with the new regulatory rules. Financial crisis tend to have some joint characteristics like e.g. the source of their origin that often lies in an excessive and rapid loan expansion, in leverage increase,...
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Czech national bank, legal status and content of activity
Semecký, Petr ; Bakeš, Milan (advisor) ; Kohajda, Michael (referee) ; Karfík, Zdeněk (referee)
disertační práce Petr Semecký Česká národní banka, právní postavení a náplň činnosti 5 Abstract A. Objectives The main goal of the dissertation "The Czech National Bank, legal status and content of activity" is to quantify, qualify and draw as exact as possible conclusions about some aspects of the development, status and activities of the Czech National Bank in the future. To solve this task, the author has used in the introduction of this work three following key questions: 1. What are the implications for the Czech National Bank of the new bodies supervising the financial markets at european level? 2. What are the benefits and negatives of adopting the euro for the Czech Republic and should the Czech Republic actually join the European Monetary Union? 3. What impact will have the amendment of the Capital Adequacy Directive (the "Basel II") on the activities of the Czech National Bank? B. Methods By creating this work was used a wide range of research methods to ensure that there will be drawn conclusions with the best possible informative value. It is possible to mention particularly the method of recherche, abstraction, comparison and synthesis. C. Sources As the most important sources used by creating the work can be mentioned ecpecially, scientific publications, monographs, articles published...
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The Interaction and Compatibility of Monetary and Macroprudential Policy in the Czech Republic
Pfeifer, Lukáš ; Ježek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Mandel, Martin (referee) ; Czesaný, Slavoj (referee)
The thesis deals with the interaction of monetary and macroprudential policy, or with the compatibility of the objectives of these policies in the Czech Republic. The main attention is given to the use of interest rate instruments for the purpose of achieving financial stability during the accumulation phase of cyclical dimension of systemic risk. For this purpose the crucial item is the relationship of financial and price stability in the economy. On the Czech economy data is therefore tested the relationship between credit activity and asset prices, to be subsequently quantified the relationship between the prices of selected assets and consumer prices. The model results open the door to greater use of industrial producer price index for the coordination of monetary and macroprudential policy. The thesis for the same reason also recommends continuing research into the development of the general price level during the financial cycle.
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The Change of Monetary Policy of the ECB during the Financial and Sovereign Debt Crisis
Zábražná, Adela ; Bič, Josef (advisor) ; Karpová, Eva (referee)
The thesis analyses the change of monetary policy of the European central bank during financial and sovereign debt crisis. Main focus of the thesis is given on the analysis of non-standard measures of monetary policy of the ECB. This thesis explains in detail how the ECB has responded to the various phases of the financial and debt crisis, starting with the period of financial turmoil, continuing with the intensification of the financial crisis and the sovereign debt crisis. Finally, the thesis compares these phases and assesses the impact of these non-standard measures.
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Central bank independence
Ďurík, Peter ; Baran, Jaroslav (advisor) ; Zetek, Pavel (referee)
Aim of my thesis "Central bank independence" is closer detail of central bank independence as one of the factors influencing macroeconomic stability from the long term. Before particular analysis of central bank degree of independence and macroeconomic values relationship, it is necessary to clarify development of central banking. At the end, there is approximated current position of central bank. The thesis is divided into five interconnected and logically follow-up chapters.
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What is the Way to Price Stability: Centralization or Liberalization of Banking Sector
Koldus, Miroslav ; Kapinusová, Jana (advisor) ; Štěpánek, Pavel (referee)
This thesis seeks to find an optimal structure for the banking sector from the perspective of price stability, defined as monetary prices that reflect consumer preferences. By comparing the common characteristics of central and free banking theories, four key areas will emerge and will constitute a background for comparative analysis. The key argument in the analysis is a comparison of the relationship between money supply and the information capability of monetary prices across both theories. The result of this analysis will be four conditions for achieving price stability, which together will answer the primary question of this thesis: Which of the two concepts offers better guarantees for price mechanism functioning?
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Inflation targeting in the Czech Republic compared with the Visegrad countries
Gergelyová, Jana ; Mandel, Martin (advisor) ; Zbyněk, Štork (referee)
This thesis is an analysis of inflation in the Czech Republic and the success of the Czech monetary policy compared with inflation targeting in the Visegrad countries. In the first part, I focused on the development of central banking and the role of central banks, the main actors of monetary policy, in relation to inflation. A common feature of the Visegrad Four is a monetary policy based on inflation targeting. The prediction of inflation compared with its actual development in a period of ten years is subject to the practical part, which is supple-mented by a wide range of graphs and tables that I have mainly compiled from data available on the websites of central banks of individual countries and Eurostat, the European Union statistical office.
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