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Study of Thermal Comfort in the Urban Environment
Šubík, Štěpán ; Holtanová, Eva (advisor) ; Zahradníček, Pavel (referee)
This thesis is written to compare indices, which describe the perceived temperature of human body in thermal environment and apply them to study the thermal comfort of city inhabitants. The thesis is divided into five parts. In the first part, many thermal indices are presented and classified into empirical, commercially used or analytical indices by their definition. The practical usage of thermal indices is mentioned in the next chapter. In the third chapter, the most suitable thermal indices for describing the urban ther- mal comfort are found. Those are UTCI, PET, PT, SET* and mPET. Thermal index mPET .has been chosen to be used further in this study. The fourth chapter includes the application of mPET on meteorological data from Prague, Berlin, Hamburg, Nürnberg, Köln and Frankfurt. The frequencies and long- term behaviour are studied as well as the effect of the street canyon for Prague's streets Dělnická, Rohanské nábřeží, Legerova and Vinohradská. The last part discusses the results. The thermal comfort in Prague and Berlin, to- gether with the effects of the street canyon in Prague are studied more closely. It was found that in Prague, Berlin, Hamburg, Nürnberg and Frankfurt, the frequencies of evening thermal discomfort, in terms of heat stress, are higher in the cities than in sur- rounding areas...
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Study of Thermal Comfort in the Urban Environment
Šubík, Štěpán ; Holtanová, Eva (advisor) ; Zahradníček, Pavel (referee)
This thesis is written to compare indices, which describe the perceived temperature of human body in thermal environment and apply them to study the thermal comfort of city inhabitants. The thesis is divided into five parts. In the first part, many thermal indices are presented and classified into empirical, commercially used or analytical indices by their definition. The practical usage of thermal indices is mentioned in the next chapter. In the third chapter, the most suitable thermal indices for describing the urban ther- mal comfort are found. Those are UTCI, PET, PT, SET* and mPET. Thermal index mPET .has been chosen to be used further in this study. The fourth chapter includes the application of mPET on meteorological data from Prague, Berlin, Hamburg, Nürnberg, Köln and Frankfurt. The frequencies and long- term behaviour are studied as well as the effect of the street canyon for Prague's streets Dělnická, Rohanské nábřeží, Legerova and Vinohradská. The last part discusses the results. The thermal comfort in Prague and Berlin, to- gether with the effects of the street canyon in Prague are studied more closely. It was found that in Prague, Berlin, Hamburg, Nürnberg and Frankfurt, the frequencies of evening thermal discomfort, in terms of heat stress, are higher in the cities than in sur- rounding areas...
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System of natural fire risk indicators (verification of various risk assessment procedures occurrence of natural fires) including instructions for the use of the integrated forecast system
Trnka, Miroslav ; Čermák, Petr ; Kudláčková, Lucie ; Balek, Jan ; Semerádová, Daniela ; Brovkina, Olga ; Zemek, František ; Štěpánek, Petr ; Zahradníček, Pavel ; Skalák, Petr ; Bláhová, Monika ; Jurečka, František ; Janouš, Dalibor ; Žalud, Zdeněk ; Marek, Michal V. ; Cienciala, Emil ; Beranová, J. ; Zatloukal, V. ; Albert, J. ; Tumajer, J. ; Možný, M. ; Hájková, L. ; Chuchma, F.
The presented methodology represents an improvement of the currently used system of wildfire monitoring and forecast. Based on extensive testing, it defines two fire weather indices. The method shows how the combination of both indices can lead to robust fire risk estimates. Both indices were uset to generate a forecast of fire weather, but also to quantify th erelationship between the frequency of favorable conditions for the occurrence of natural fires and their observed numbers, in several time steps (from 1 day to the entire season) The methodology has been implemented within the www. firerisk.cz portal, where it serves as a tool for operational fire risk forecasting. The text of the methodology therefore contains instructions for using the menthodology therefore contains instructions for using the firerick.cz portal. Great attention is paid in the methodology to the aspect of climate change and estimating the impact of this phenomenon on the frequency of wildfires in the Czech republic.
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Recommended adaptation and mitigation measures in risk areas of natural occurrence fires in the light of the changing climate
Trnka, Miroslav ; Čermák, Petr ; Kudláčková, Lucie ; Balek, Jan ; Semerádová, Daniela ; Brovkina, Olga ; Zemek, František ; Štěpánek, Petr ; Zahradníček, Pavel ; Bláhová, Monika ; Cienciala, Emil ; Beranová, J. ; Zatloukal, V. ; Albert, J. ; Tumajer, J. ; Možný, M. ; Hájková, L. ; Chuchma, F.
The methodology formulates graded adaptation and mitigation measures to mitigate fire risk and spread fire in the countryside (forest and agricultural land). To this end, a variant assessment procedure is presented fire risk according to the user's data capabilities. The algorithmization of fire risk in forests is based on forest typology to assess habitats, and adds forest vegetation characteristics. On agricultural Soil agronomic factors include crop type, cover cover, habitat and water characteristics regime. For both territorial categories, the expected impacts of climate change on fire risk are given habitat in the medium term (by 2050). Methodology in conclusion on a case study demonstrates the possibilities of using the model tool FlamMap for the analysis of fire characteristics.
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WINTER RECREATION AND SNOW
Zahradníček, Pavel ; Rožnovský, J. ; Štěpánek, Petr ; Farda, Aleš ; Brzezina, J.
Climate assessment should not be limited to just statistical analysis, but also look at relationships in data and its uses in other areas of everyday life. One such area is tourism and recreation, which is also to a great extent influenced by the weather. This paper focuses on the winter season and the related possibilities for tourism. One of the key factors is snow conditions of the particular place. This analysis takes into account the amount of new snow and maximum snow depth and changes in these parameters as a result of the current global climate change. Especially in the last 15 years, years with less snow are more frequent and this is especially seen at highest altitudes of the country. The study also analyzed outputs of climate models with regards to winter season, including calculations of the number of melting days.
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DYNAMICS OF WINTER SEVERITY AND ITS EFFECT ON RECREATION
Zahradníček, Pavel ; Rožnovský, J. ; Brzezina, J. ; Štěpánek, Petr ; Farda, Aleš ; Chuchma, F.
Air temperature in winter months and colder half-year is an important factor for wide range of human activities, including recreation. As a result of current climate change, average air temperatures increase in winter as well. This, however, does not mean that there are no frosts. Each winter season can be assessed using several parameters. In this paper we used the sum of effective air temperatures below 0 degrees C and- 5 degrees C. Absolute minimum air temperature was used as an indicator of the extremity of a particular period. Space-time analysis has been performed for both parameters. Air temperatures in winter months are to a large extent influenced by the continentality of the climate. In general, the temperatures in Bohemia rise faster compared to Moravia and the absolute lowest minimum air temperatures are observed in the Western parts of the country. Based on a multiparametric analysis of climate characteristics, the coldest winter and colder half-year was in 1963, in contrast, the mildest winter was in 2007.
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Summary report for providing meteorological forecasts for CEPS company
Farda, Aleš ; Štěpánek, Petr ; Meitner, Jan ; Zahradníček, Pavel
Global Change Research Institute CAS provides CEPS company with outputs from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The cooperation lasts from 2015 up to now. Selected fields of meteorological variables (namely solar radiation - global and direct, and air temperature in 2 m) are processed from grib files into suitable spatial information, like administrative districts (areal averages) or position of grid points of GFS model. NPW models used are ALADIN from Czech Hydrometeorological Institute and GFS model (from NCEP, NOAA). Outputs are provided for several days ahead, and are issued each morning.
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System for monitoring and forecast of impacts of agricultural drought
Trnka, Miroslav ; Štěpánek, Petr ; Chuchma, F. ; Možný, M. ; Bartošová, Lenka ; Hlavinka, Petr ; Balek, Jan ; Zahradníček, Pavel ; Skalák, Petr ; Farda, Aleš ; Semerádová, Daniela ; Meitner, Jan ; Bláhová, M. ; Fiala, R. ; Žalud, Zdeněk
The methodology describes how to predict soil moisture and drought intensity, and at the same time addresses reliability of the predictions and how these can be used. The ability to predict soil moisture values over a period of up to 9 days is presented through using ensemble of models for numerical weather forecasts. This method brings also new opportunities to mitigate impacts during drought events by farmers using such forecasting tools. With regard to the relatively high predictability of soil moisture and drought intensity, the methodology introduces the basic procedures and provides necessary information for the users. In this methodology, the results of 2017 drought event are presented as an example. The drought forecasting system for the Czech Republic is fully functional and is and will be available through www.intersucho.cz.
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Frost Indexes for the Cold Half-year in the Czech Republic
Zahradníček, Pavel ; Rožnovský, J. ; Brzezina, J. ; Štěpánek, Petr ; Farda, Aleš ; Chuchma, F. ; Potopová, V.
The dynamics of air temperatures during cold half-year to a large extent affect all human activities. Most significant damages are caused by minimum air temperatures dropping to very low values. Due to the current ongoing climate change, air temperatures in winter in general are increasing, however, this does not necessarily mean the frequency of these very low temperatures decreases. It is not easy to express the course of air temperatures during cold periods using some simple characteristic. Meteorologists and climatologists use various characteristics, which can be referred to as frost indexes. These include the number of frost, ice or arctic days. Since these indexes not always perfectly reflect reaction of the nature to a particular temperature threshold, the analysis also included number of days with minimum air temperature below -3, -5, -7, -10, -15, -20 and -25°C. In the last 15 years (2001-2015), there has been a decrease in the frost indexes in comparison to the normal period 1961-1990, this trend however, is not always statistically significant. Significant changes were found in particular in case of the number of days with a higher temperature threshold (frost, ice days and minimum air temperature above -3 to -10°C). In contrast, days with extremely low temperatures are relatively rare (sometimes only observed once in several years), so the dominant factor here is rather variability. The paper also includes an analysis of possible future development based on the most recent climatological models.
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