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Comparison of oil price growth during 1st and 2nd oil shock in the 1970's with current situation : Is there a treat of third oil shock?
Murková, Viera ; Hlaváček, Michal (advisor) ; Cahlík, Tomáš (referee)
Bachelor thesis on Comparison of oil price growth during 1st and 2nd oil shock in the 1970's with current situation: Is there a threat of 3rd oil shock? consists of three main parts. The first part describes the state of economy in the 1970's, reasons causing the oil shocks, how they affected the developed countries and how these countries settled up with related problems.The second part focuses on the situation in the 21st century, high oil prices and its consumption and effects on economies that have tried to learn from the previous mistakes, which they made in the 1970's. The last part focuses on predictions to the future and possible alternatives to oil. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Identification of Asset Price Misalignments on Financial Markets With Extreme Value Theory
Kadlčáková, Narcisa ; Komárek, Luboš ; Komárková, Zlatuše ; Hlaváček, Michal
This paper examines the potential for concurrence of crises in the foreign exchange, stock, and government bond markets as well as identifying asset price misalignments from equilibrium for three Central European countries and the euro area. Concurrence is understood as the joint occurrence of extreme asset changes in different countries and is assessed with a measure of the asymptotic tail dependence among the distributions studied. However, the main aim of the paper is to examine the potential for concurrence of misalignments from equilibrium among financial markets. To this end, representative assets are linked to their fundamentals using a cointegration approach. Next, the extreme values of the differences between the actual daily exchange rates and their monthly equilibrium values determine the episodes associated with large departures from equilibrium. Using tools from Extreme Value Theory, we analyze the transmission of both standard crisis and misalignment-from-equilibrium formation events in the foreign exchange, stock, and government bond markets examined. The results reveal significant potential for co-alignment of extreme events in these markets in Central Europe. The evidence for co-movements is found to be very weak for the exchange rates, but is stronger for the stock markets and bond markets in some periods.
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Global Economy Outlook - June 2013
Zeisel, Viktor ; Benecká, Soňa ; Klíma, Milan ; Hlaváček, Michal ; Komárek, Luboš ; Babecká, Oxana ; Adam, Tomáš ; Novotný, Filip
Výhledy HDP, inflace, předstihových ukazatelů, úrokových sazeb, měnových kurzů a cen komodit. V rámci rubriky „Zaostřeno na…“ obsahuje zpráva analýzu Roční vyhodnocení předpovědí obsažených v GEVu, která mimo jiné ukazuje na optimističtější výhled ekonomické výkonnosti eurozóny ve srovnání s následnou skutečností.
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Global Economy Outlook - May 2013
Zeisel, Viktor ; Benecká, Soňa ; Klíma, Milan ; Hlaváček, Michal ; Komárek, Luboš ; Babecká, Oxana ; Adam, Tomáš
Výhledy HDP, inflace, předstihových ukazatelů, úrokových sazeb, měnových kurzů a cen komodit. V rámci rubriky „Zaostřeno na…“ obsahuje zpráva analýzu Vývoj cen bytů ve vybraných zemích a m etropolích střední a východní Evropy.Analýza ukazuje na relativně rozdílný vývoj cen bytů v těchto zemích po roce 2000, který byl způsoben zejména odlišnou dynamikou reálné ekonomiky a demografickými faktory.
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Economic research bulletin (2007, No.1)
Heřmánek, Jaroslav ; Hlaváček, Michal ; Jakubík, Petr ; Geršl, Adam ; Derviz, Alexis ; Podpiera, Jiří ; Šmídková, Kateřina
This issue of the CNB Research Bulletin looks at advances in the area of financial stability. Financial stability issues have attracted the attention of central banks in the last 10 years, mainly due to the rapid development of financial systems, the emergence of new financial products and the increased integration of the financial system across borders. These issues are extremely important for the Czech financial sector as well. One of the most widely used analytical tools for evaluating the stability of the financial sector is stress testing. The first article – by Jaroslav Heřmánek, Petr Jakubík and Michal Hlaváček – describes progress in this area as compared to earlier versions of stress testing. Progress has been made primarily in the areas of modelling credit risk and linking the stress testing to the CNB’s official macroeconomic forecast. The second and third articles – by Adam Geršl and by Alexis Derviz and Jiří Podpiera – are devoted to the issue of cross border-contagion in the Czech Republic. This problem is of great importance for the Czech Republic due to the strong foreign ownership of the Czech banking sector and the increasing crossborder flows of capital. The article by Adam Geršl uses macroeconomic data from BIS and compares the threats of cross-border contagion from other CEECs using a common creditor index. The article by Alexis Derviz and Jiří Podpiera presents the results of a sophisticated microeconomic model of lending contagion within multinational banking groups together with an empirical model of lending contagion using individual bank data from Bankscope.
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What Central Banks Can Learn from It
Brázdik, František ; Hlaváček, Michal ; Maršál, Aleš
This survey gives insight into the ongoing research in financial frictions modeling. The recent financial turmoil has fueled interest in operationalizing financial frictions concepts and introducing them into tools for policy makers. The rapid growth of the literature on these issues is the motivation for our review of the presented approaches. The empirical facts that motivate the inclusion of financial frictions are surveyed.
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Global Economic Outlook - April 2012
Babecká, Oxana ; Klíma, Milan ; Benecká, Soňa ; Adam, Tomáš ; Komárek, Luboš ; Hlaváček, Michal
Výhledy HDP, inflace, předstihových ukazatelů, úrokových sazeb, měnových kurzů a cen komodit. V rámci rubriky „Zaostřeno na…“ obsahuje zpráva analýzu Vývoj nesladěnosti cen nemovitostí ve světě.
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