|
|
Economic prospects of Kyrgyzstan from a geopolitical perspective
Loboda, Aleksandra ; Romancov, Michael (advisor) ; Aslan, Emil (referee)
This thesis will analyze the economic and political prospects of Kyrgyzstan based on the geopolitics of the country. This thesis will provide data on Kyrgyzstan's political, economic, and diplomatic relations over the past thirty years with the following countries: Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, China, Russia, and the United States. Imports and exports between the countries will also be provided and analyzed in the second half of the paper. Using the method of comparing qualitative and quantitative data, conclusions will be drawn as to which direction Kyrgyzstan should take as a small developing country. It is not about minute-by-minute actions, but rather long-term actions that will have a tremendous weight on the economic development of the country in the future. The paper essentially comes to the conclusion that the best development for Kyrgyzstan will be if the country manages to reduce its dependence on Russia and explore other trade routes and other trade partners.
|
|
|
The impact of radical Islam on the North Caucasuss insurgency movements
Časnocha, Tomáš ; Kazharski, Aliaksei (advisor) ; Aslan, Emil (referee)
This master thesis examines the impact that radical Islamic ideas had on the ideological and motivational narratives of North Caucasus insurgency groups. It aims to shed light on how radical religious notions interacted with nationalistic goals of originally separatist Chechen movement and Dagestani Wahabi movement. The thesis is focusing on examining legal documents such as constitutions and its changes, presidential decrees, or news outlets. It also examines in detail considerable number of interviews given publicly by leaders of insurgencies but also by foot soldiers. The analytical segment examines in detail the political and societal development within the movements at question focusing on the role of religious ideas within these domains. Subsequent chapter provides a discussion on these findings as well as comparison of Dagestani and Chechen cases. The final segment of the thesis then provides concluding thoughts and ideas for further research in the field.
|
|
| |
|
|
To Run Insurgency like a Business: Self-Defeating Patronage by the Principal in Eastern Ukraine
Laryš, Martin ; Aslan, Emil (advisor) ; Svoboda, Karel (referee) ; Mareš, Miroslav (referee)
The dissertation draws on the literature on indirect warfare based on principal-agent theory, which conceptualizes indirect warfare as an example of delegation. Principals play an important role in shaping the rebellion and exerting control over it through the delegation used as a low- cost and deniable device for empowering the rebel proxies. However, the delegation is fraught with problems, especially when delegated to fragmented rebels. The literature considers the fragmented rebel militias as weak non-state actors prone to rapid failure and decay. My argument focuses on the paradox of delegation to the fragmented rebel groups. I claim that such delegation is inherently costly and visible, which contradicts the original intention of delegation as a low-cost and deniable foreign policy tool. In my dissertation, I introduce the concepts of self-defeating patronage and decentralized delegation as my contribution to the discussion on indirect warfare. The principal suffers self-defeating patronage because it must keep the barriers-of-entry low for the incipient rebel groups to overcome the collective action problem that the would-be rebels experience due to their weak social ties. Keeping the barriers low without strict control by the principal - that would raise the costs and visibility - fuels...
|
|
|
Identifying the causal link between the desiccation of Lake Chad and Boko-Haram recruitment in the Sahel region
Bharkhada, Jayesh ; Anceschi, Luca (advisor) ; Aslan, Emil (referee)
The relationship between the effects of climate change and developing security issues around the world are becoming increasingly complex as the effects of climate change become more dangerous. Climate change impacts food, energy and water supplies and causes the mass loss of life and international displacement, these are effects felt most notably by those who experience poverty or rely on natural resources for their livelihoods (Environment, 2017). This thesis highlights a theatre of conflict involving the relationship between those who are most vulnerable to the effects of climate change and those who seek to take advantage of their weaknesses. The vulnerable group in question are those who operate across the agricultural sector in the Sahel in West Africa, their livelihoods are endangered by the desiccation of the region's main water source, this being Lake Chad. As Lake Chad continues to shrink Boko-Haram have been capitalizing on the community vulnerabilities that have been exposed and have increased recruitment efforts as a result. A close analysis of the shrinking of Lake Chad and Boko-Haram recruitment increases garners data so compelling that one can create a causal link between the two factors. This causal link is what the thesis strives to create, it does so with the reliance on a vast...
|
|
|
Managing state-militia relations
Waddington, Michael ; Aslan, Emil (advisor) ; Kaczmarski, Marcin (referee)
Title- Managing State-Militia Relations Subtitle- Divide and Control 25/07/2022 Glasgow Student Number: 2610868 Dublin City Student Number: 592498 Charles Student Number: 39388528 Presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree Of International Master in Security, Intelligence and Strategic Studies Word Count: 20050 Supervisor: Emil Aslan Date of Submission: 26/07/2022 Abastract Militias are playing an increasing role in an array of conflicts across the globe. This makes understanding how states can successfully manage these groups vital as they have both the potential to be key counterinsurgency tools, as well as the causes of instability and unnecessary violence. Existing research on state-militia relations highlights many mechanisms used to shape the partnerships between these groups. However, they have failed to acknowledge the impact the organisational structure of militias has on shaping these partnerships. This dissertation investigates this gap in research by exploring the role decentralisation of militia leadership plays in the management of state-militia relationships during civil wars. States seek to limit the independent capacity of militias while protecting their anti-rebel capacity. Existing study of the mechanisms through which this is achieved have focused on identity and...
|
|
|
Terrorists or trafficking victims? An analysis of how the UK Prevent policy frames those at risk of joining terror groups abroad
Slater, Caitlin ; Anceschi, Luca (advisor) ; Aslan, Emil (referee)
The aim of this research is to analyse whether the Prevent policy in the United Kingdom has resulted in the labelling of the Muslim community as 'suspect' and to assess the impact this has on potential victims of terrorism related trafficking. The strategy was first implemented in 2003 in the wake of 9/11 and in the early years of the 'War on Terror'. It has been accused of being Islamophobic and playing a large role in labelling Muslims as a suspect community. Prevent is a referral system through which anybody who causes concern regarding extremism can be reported. Once reported the case is assessed and it is decided if it will be dismissed, signposted to other services or taken further (UK Government 2019). This report will analyse statistics released by the government regarding Prevent referrals as well as case studies through which it is evident that the policy creates a suspect community. The rise of ISIS in 2011 led to a rise in people travelling to join in the following years. Among these people there were children aged under 18. The international definition of human trafficking lays out that there does not need to be proof of deception involved in order for a child to have been a victim of trafficking (OSCE 2021). Prevent is the policy that would be employed if there was believed to be risk...
|
|
|
Lethal crossroads: The evolution of Taliban violence in response to counterinsurgency strategies in Afghanistan 2006-2021
Mccafferty, Sean ; Biagini, Erika (advisor) ; Aslan, Emil (referee) ; Kaczmarski, Marcin (referee)
Lethal Crossroads: The Evolution of Taliban Violence in Response to Counterinsurgency Strategies in Afghanistan 2006-2021. July 2022 Presented in partial fulfilment for the Degree of International Master in Security, Intelligence and Strategic Studies Word Count: 21861 Date of Submission: 24/07/2022 Student Number Glasgow: 2188272M Dublin: 20109547 Prague: 19142078 Supervisor Dr Erika Biagini Abstract This thesis examines how the Taliban's use of the Improvised Explosive Device (IED) evolved in response to changing counterinsurgency strategies in Afghanistan between 2006 and 2021. The work aims to identify the role of state counterinsurgency strategies in affecting variation in IED use by insurgents. The evolution of methods of violence in Afghanistan has rarely been focused on. Yet, the Taliban's return to power in 2021 amid the withdrawal of the last coalition forces necessitates reflection on the conflict across academia and policy making. To investigate the evolution of the IED this research employs a longitudinal case study design applying qualitative research methodologies such as the constant comparative method to analyse three distinct phases of insurgent and counterinsurgent violent competition in Afghanistan between 2006 and 2021. An evolutionary theoretical framework outlined by Veilleux-Lepage...
|
|
|
Risk assessment: VNSAs' ability to achieve CBRN capabilities
Lucas, Makenzie Troi ; McDonagh, Ken (advisor) ; Aslan, Emil (referee)
Academics disagree on the risk of VNSAs being able to build or acquire CBRN weapons. Their analysis is based on motivation, geographical factors, potential targets, and VNSA group attributes. Missing is the detailed investigation of how and where a VNSA obtains the necessary precursor materials and the type of security surrounding common materials used for CBRN weapons. This paper will explore the possible routes an actor could take to acquire the knowledge, skills, and materials necessary to make an operable CBRN weapon. Case studies are used to show past routes that allowed VNSAs to achieve capability and the type of weapon and attack utilized. The implementation of regulations, both in response to CBRN attacks and their effectiveness in preventing VNSA CBRN weapon capability, are analyzed. Public online forums, weapons manuals and weapons research along with past prosecuted criminal CBRN attacks revealed the financial capacity needed to acquire materials as well as the technical capacity required to build a successful CBRN system. Existing databases logging insecurity in nuclear facilities, radioisotope thefts, chemical and biological incidents and more are used to establish trends among past and present pursuits and use of CBRN weapons. Viable routes to CBRN capability remain reenforcing the...
|
|
|
Gender equality, women's participation in the post-conflict society, and civil war recurrence
Drevená, Katarína ; Aslan, Emil (advisor) ; Kotvalová, Anna (referee)
A large amount of academic literature demonstrated that intrastate conflicts often occur in countries that have already experienced civil war. This reoccurring pattern forced several researchers to analyze which factors contribute and which lower the risk of war recurrence. This master thesis focuses on the civil war recurrence through the lenses of gender. I will argue that higher gender equality could lower the risk that intrastate conflict will reoccur. If the countries are organized by norms of gender inequality, the same treatment is reproduced towards the other groups within society. On the other hand, more gender-equal societies may transform these relationships into the same tolerant relationships with those who are perceived as different and foreign in the country. Moreover, socialization and the way children have been raised play an important role in how they will behave as adults. Less patriarchal societies with a lower focus on the norm of dominance create space for norms of tolerance, respect, peace, freedom, and equality which has a pacifying effect on the behavior of the state and people within it. Therefore, I will hypothesize that the higher women's political, economic, and social participation, the longer the duration of peace after the civil war. Large-N quantitative analysis in...
|
guest ::
