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Microfoundations of the Wage Inflation in the Czech republic
Galuščák, Kamil ; Münich, Daniel
The study investigates whether microfoundations might increase the predictive power of macroeconomic models of wage inflation. By comparing past predictions to observed values, the study finds that the Phillips curve with the average unemployment rate in districts with prevalently low unemployment rates delivers more accurate predictions of aggregated wage inflation than the Phillips curve with the overall unemployment rate.
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Estimating market probabilities of future interest rate changes
Hlušek, Martin
The goal of this paper is to estimate the market consensus forecast of future monetary policy development and to quantify the priced-in probability of interest rate changes for different future time horizons. The proposed model uses the current spot money market yield curve and available money market derivative instruments (forward rate agreements, FRAs) and estimates the market probability of interest rate changes up to a 12-month horizon.
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Přeshraniční úvěrová nákaza v nadnárodních bankách
Derviz, Alexis ; Podpiera, J.
Lending contagion in multinational banks is studied theoretically and empirically. In the proposed model, contagion arises due to shareholder-manager delegation and precautionary motives. Empirically, more than one half of the multinational banks in our representative sample show signs of lending contagion.
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