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Vztah mezi vývojem cen významných komodit a vývojem akciových trhů
Prejdová, Jana
Diploma thesis studies the relationship between selected commodities and stock indexes. In the theoretical part of the thesis, there are described important stock indexes, their sector structure and the countries represented in each index. There is a detailed description of the analysed commodities, which are gold, crude oil and cocoa. The theoretical part focuses also on the historical development of prices of these commodities, important events with an impact on the development of prices, and factors influencing prices of commodities. There is also characterised the supply and demand for these commodities. Practical part of the thesis analyses the correlation between stock indexes and commodities and furthermore tests the relationship between stock markets and commodities with the statistical method of VAR model and Granger causality.
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Rozdíl mezi očekávaným a skutečným vývojem ekonomické situace v České republice
Kutrová, Eliška
This diploma thesis deals with the comparison of selected leading economic indicators and the real situation that occurred in the Czech Republic between May 2010 and April 2018. With the help of econometric models using the Pearson correlation coefficient and Granger’s causality, this thesis compares the difference between expected development of economic situation and reality for selected indicators. Namely the number of new construction orders, issued building permits, retail sales and the development of the exchange rate of Czech crown against the euro. The result of econometric models showed that expectations regarding the development of economic situation do not correlate significantly with the real situation in the Czech Republic.
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Ekonometrické modelovanie výkonu fondov
Tuchyňová, Barbora
In this diploma thesis we gather information on European mutual funds and ETFs that would help to inform the decision of an investment manager. We cre-ated OLS models for three types of mutual funds - money market, bond and equity – to demonstrate a relationship between funds' volatility and their annualised return. We then utilised VAR models to test Granger causation between an ETF and its tracking index using their net asset value.
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Vlivy působící na vývoj akciového indexu S&P500
Svoboda, Petr
This thesis aims to identify the links between economic developments and move-ments in US stock markets. The period from Q1 2001 to Q3 2016 inclusive was chosen for an analysis of the relationship between trends in GDP time series and the S&P 500 index. A correlation analysis was carried out on the time series ex-amined, while the Granger causality test was used to determine the causal rela-tionship between them.
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Vzťah medzi akciovým indexom a menovým kurzom v ČR
Petko, Marko
This diploma thesis focuses on the relationship between stock index and exchange rate in the Czech republic. The theoretical part describes Prague stock index, exchange rate and its regimes, as well as theoretical knowledge and practical studies of this relationship by another authors. In practical part of diploma thesis, relationship between exchange rate and stock index is tested with Granger causality. At the end of this paper, results of this diploma thesis are compared with results of authors, who focused on same topic.
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Sentiment a akciové trhy rozvíjejících se zemí
Hussein, Kamil
This thesis studies effect of sentiment in Emerging markets. More specifically investigates market sentiment inflowing from developed markets and its impact on emerging markets. There are used developed markets’ implied volatility indices and indices of emerging markets to quantify the relationship between developed market’ sentiment and emerging markets’ economies. The influence of Emerging markets by sentiment deriving from developed markets is analysed by VAR model and Granger causality. The results of this thesis show that the Indian stocks market is influenced by all three developed markets investigated, which are USA, the United Kingdom and Germany. The Russian market is affected by sentiment from the United Kingdom. US’ sentiment produces significant impact on the Mexican stock market. Other analysed markets, which are the Turkish and Brazilian market, are not shown to be significantly influenced by any of the developed countries studied.
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The Profitability of Standard Trading Strategies in Cryptocurrency Markets
Duda, Miroslav ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Brož, Václav (referee)
The thesis attempts to determine how strategies used for forecasting and trad- ing on foreign exchange and stock markets perform when applied to cryptocur- rency markets. The approaches explored are ARIMA, VAR, MA Crossover, and Granger Causality using gold prices and S&P 500. The currencies traded are Bitcoin, Ethereum, Binance Coin, and Basic Attention Token. The models are trained on logarithmically transformed and differenced time series composed of the currencies' daily and hourly closing prices. Applying these strategies mostly leads to ambiguous results, with MA Crossover generally performing better than VAR, which in turn performs better than ARIMA. However, every strategy was moderately successful for at least one of the currencies examined. Trading on the hourly dataset was negatively influenced by sudden price jumps. ARIMA and VAR perform better in the inter-bubble periods. No significant Granger causality was found. Keywords Cryptocurrency, Trading, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Binance Coin, Basic Attention Token, ARIMA, VAR, MA Crossover, Granger Causality Title The Profitability of Standard Trading Strategies in Cryptocurrency Markets Author's e-mail miroslav.duda11@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail ladislav.kristoufek@fsv.cuni.cz
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The Inflation-Output Variability Relationship in the CEE countries: A Bivariate GARCH Model
Kubovič, Jozef ; Čech, František (advisor) ; Červinka, Michal (referee)
This thesis examines the output-variability relationship and causal relationships among the inflation, the output growth and their uncertainties for the Central and Eastern European region during the period of time that covers the economic crisis of 2008. We apply the bivariate GARCH(1,1) model with the constant conditional correlation covariance matrix to obtain conditional variances that proxy the two uncertainties and use Granger causality test to determine the causal effects among four variables. We come up with a number of interesting results. First, we did not find statistical evidence neither for the inflation-output variability relationship nor for the Phillips curve. Second, we uncovered support for the positive causal effect of the inflation on its uncertainty and negative causal effect for the reverse direction. Additionally, we also found some support for the indirect negative causal effect of the inflation on the output growth. These results support the policy of low and stable inflation in the countries. Finally, we showed that crisis has a significant impact on the results, changing the behaviour of conditional variances and causal effects among the variables. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Stock Price Bubbles: Identification and the Effects of Monetary Policy
Koza, Oldřich ; Matějů, Jakub (advisor) ; Ryska, Pavel (referee)
This thesis studies bubbles in the U.S. stock market and how they are influenced by monetary policy pursued by the FED. Using Kalman filtering, the log-real price of S&P 500 is decomposed into a market-fundamentals component and a bubble component. The market-fundamentals component depends on the expected future dividends and the required rate of return, while the bubble component is treated as an unobserved state vector in the state-space model. The results suggest that, mainly in recent decades, the bubble has accounted for a substantial portion of S&P 500 price dynamics and might have played a significant role during major bull and bear markets. The innovation of this thesis is that it goes one step further and investigates the effects of monetary policy on both estimated components of S&P 500. For this purpose, the block- restriction VAR model is employed. The findings indicate that the decreasing interest rates have a significant short-term positive effect on the market-fundamentals component but not on the bubble. On the other hand, quantitative easing seems to have a positive effect on the bubble but not on the market-fundamentals component. Finally, the results suggest that the FED has not been successful at distinguishing between stock price movements due to fundamentals or the price misalignment.
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Granger's causality in financial time series
Marčiny, Jakub ; Voříšek, Jan (advisor) ; Lachout, Petr (referee)
The bachelor thesis discusses causality in multiple time series. Granger causality, along with its more general counterparts instantaneous causality and multistep causality, are utilized to study the mutual influence of the individual components of a multiple time series. These concepts are investigated within the framework of vector autoregressive models VAR. After the introduction of basic definitions and facts, the construction of VAR model is described including methods for order selection and verification. Subsequently, causal relations within the model are examined. Finally, empirical analysis of real financial market data is performed using tests procedures programmed with computational software Mathematica.
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