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Clustering and regression analysis of micro panel data
Sobíšek, Lukáš ; Pecáková, Iva (advisor) ; Komárek, Arnošt (referee) ; Brabec, Marek (referee)
The main purpose of panel studies is to analyze changes in values of studied variables over time. In micro panel research, a large number of elements are periodically observed within the relatively short time period of just a few years. Moreover, the number of repeated measurements is small. This dissertation deals with contemporary approaches to the regression and the clustering analysis of micro panel data. One of the approaches to the micro panel analysis is to use multivariate statistical models originally designed for crosssectional data and modify them in order to take into account the within-subject correlation. The thesis summarizes available tools for the regression analysis of micro panel data. The known and currently used linear mixed effects models for a normally distributed dependent variable are recapitulated. Besides that, new approaches for analysis of a response variable with other than normal distribution are presented. These approaches include the generalized marginal linear model, the generalized linear mixed effects model and the Bayesian modelling approach. In addition to describing the aforementioned models, the paper also includes a brief overview of their implementation in the R software. The difficulty with the regression models adjusted for micro panel data is the ambiguity of their parameters estimation. This thesis proposes a way to improve the estimations through the cluster analysis. For this reason, the thesis also contains a description of methods of the cluster analysis of micro panel data. Because supply of the methods is limited, the main goal of this paper is to devise its own two-step approach for clustering micro panel data. In the first step, the panel data are transformed into a static form using a set of proposed characteristics of dynamics. These characteristics represent different features of time course of the observed variables. In the second step, the elements are clustered by conventional spatial clustering techniques (agglomerative clustering and the C-means partitioning). The clustering is based on a dissimilarity matrix of the values of clustering variables calculated in the first step. Another goal of this paper is to find out whether the suggested procedure leads to an improvement in quality of the regression models for this type of data. By means of a simulation study, the procedure drafted herein is compared to the procedure applied in the kml package of the R software, as well as to the clustering characteristics proposed by Urso (2004). The simulation study demonstrated better results of the proposed combination of clustering variables as compared to the other combinations currently used. A corresponding script written in the R-language represents another benefit of this paper. It is available on the attached CD and it can be used for analyses of readers own micro panel data.
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Use of Interest Rate Models for Interest Rate Risk Management in the Czech Financial Market Environment
Cíchová Králová, Dana ; Arlt, Josef (advisor) ; Cipra, Tomáš (referee) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee)
The main goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to interest rate risk modeling in the Czech financial market environment in various situations. Three distinct periods are analyzed. These periods, which are the period before the global financial crisis, period during the financial crisis and in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and calming subsequent debt crisis in the eurozone, are characterized by different evaluation of liquidity and credit risk, different relationship between financial variables and market participants and different degree of market regulations. Within this goal, an application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment is crucial. Use of the BGM model for the purpose of predicting a dynamics of a yield curve is not very common. This is firstly due to the fact that primary use of this model is a valuation of interest rate derivatives while ensuring the absence of arbitrage and secondly its application is relatively difficult. Nevertheless, I apply the BGM model to obtain predictions of the probability distributions of interest rates in the Czech and eurozone market environment, because its complexity, direct modeling of a yield curve based on market rates and especially a possibility of parameter estimation based on current swaptions volatilities quotations may lead to a significant improvement of predictions. This improvement was also confirmed in this thesis. Use of swaptions volatilities market quotations is especially useful in the period of unprecedented mone- tary easing and increased number of central banks and other regulators interventions into financial markets that occur after the financial crisis, because it reflects current market expectations which also include future interventions. As a consequence of underdevelopment of the Czech financial market there are no market quotations of Czech koruna denominated swaptions volatilities. I suggest their approximations based on quotations of euro denominated swaptions volatilities and also using volatilities of koruna and euro forward rates. Use of this approach ensures that predictions of the Czech yield curve dynamics contain current market expectations. To my knowledge, any other author has not presented similar application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment. In this thesis I further predict a Czech and Euro area money market yield curve dynamics using the CIR and the GP models as representatives of various types of interest rates models to compare these predictions with BGM predictions. I suggest a comprehensive system of three criteria, based on comparison of predicti- ons with reality, to describe a predictive power of selected models and an appropria- teness of their use in the Czech market environment during different situations in the market. This analysis shows that predictions of the Czech money market yield curve dynamics based on the BGM model demonstrate high predictive power and the best 8 quality in comparison with other models. GP model also produces relatively good qua- lity predictions. Conversely, predictions based on the CIR model as a representative of short rate model family completely failed when describing reality. In a situation when the economy allows negative rates and there is simultaneously a significant likelihood of their implementation, I recommend to obtain predictions of Czech money market yield curve dynamics using GP model which allows existence of negative interest rates. This analysis also contains a statistical test for validating the predictive power of each model and information on other tests. Berkowitz test rejects a hypothesis of accurate predictions for each model. However, this fact is common in real data testing even when using relatively good model. This fact is especially caused by difficult fulfilment of test conditions in real world. To my knowledge, such an analysis of the predictive power of selected interest rate models moreover in the Czech financial market environment has not been published yet. The last goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to obtaining pre- dictions of Czech government bonds risk premium dynamics. I define this risk premium as a difference between government bond yields and fixed rate of CZK IRS with the same length. I apply the GP model to describe the dynamics of this indicator of the Czech Republic credit risk. In order to obtain a time series of the risk premium which are necessary for estimation of GP model parameters I firstly estimate yield curves of Czech government bonds using Svensson model for each trading day since 2005. Resulting si- mulations of risk premium show that the GP model predicts the real development of risk premiums of all maturities relatively well. Hence, the proposed approach is suitable for modeling of Czech Republic credit risk based on the use of information extracted from financial markets. I have not registered proposed approach to risk premium modeling moreover in the Czech financial market environment in other publications.
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Multimedia communication
Vondra, Zdeněk ; Horný, Stanislav (advisor) ; Skrbek, Jan (referee) ; Jurášková, Olga (referee)
Multimedia is a form of communication and sharing knowledge using synergic effect of parallel connected communication channels. Its main use is in producing communications products and services and in design of user interfaces. Main objective of this dissertation is to develop and create a model of multimedia communication for better understanding of the meaning and the purpose of using multimedia forms in communication process. The model will describe a system of elements and parameters of multimedia communication within the internal and external context. Another objective of this dissertation is to develop multimedia communication methodology that will be used for the design, development and evaluations of concepts of multimedia communication. The methodology will be created by applying the model of multimedia communication into the procedure structure. In theoretical way this dissertation is based on analysis of different definitions and approaches to the multimedia communications topic. This is followed by an analysis of communication theories, concepts of media, multimedia, delivery channels, and communication functions. The theoretical part is followed by the outcomes of the research in practice of four different fields of multimedia use. The knowledge gained is analyzed in the following parts in purpose of creating the model of multimedia communication and the methodology which is derived from the model. The methodology is further validated through case studies and the recommendations for further development are formulated. The model and the methodology of multimedia communication created in this dissertation present complex view on multimedia communication topic that is considered as a useful tool for meeting a specific communication purpose. Dissertation provides mechanics for use and study of multimedia communication and also defines the opportunities for further development of the methodology.
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The analysis of an impact of realised projects of the OP Prague - the competitiveness of program period 2007-2013
Kellnerová, Markéta ; Wokoun, René (advisor) ; Krejčová, Nikola (referee)
The purpose of this dissertation is to evaluate an impact of realized projects of Prague operating program The competitiveness on a development of the Prague region. Theoretical part is dedicated to formation and development of regional politics, consequent establishment of the EU and its dividing into the program periods including given aims. Subsequently, the dissertation examines the possibilities of using the funds of the EU, after, these possibilities are discussed, specifically for the CZ. Due to the fact, that it is the OP which is referred only to the capital city Prague, one chapter is given to this issue. The last section of the theoretical part is an implementation of the OP. The practical part is concerned about quantitative and financial analysis of the OP, which is divided into the program years. In the end of the practical part, an effect of the OP is totally evaluated, mainly its impact on the development of Prague through horizontal subjects and achieving of set indicators. Finally, the effect on the region of Prague is evaluated, in terms of applicants for funds.
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Usage of unstructured data in Business Intelligence
Rakhmanova, Malika ; Šperková, Lucie (advisor) ; Karkošková, Soňa (referee)
The aim of the thesis is to identify the main trends that are occurring in the market of Business Intelligence and related to unstructured data, to describe the possibilities for integrating unstructured data, to clarify what the impact on the company have the results that can be obtained using these solutions and how generally incorporate an analysis of unstructured data into BI. Another aim is to show the current situation of processing unstructured data on the example of BI system. The thesis is divided into several parts. First part is describing of the Business Intelligence area and the basic components of Business Intelligence, as well as identifying market trends. Then, there is the next part: separating the data into structured and unstructured. Here is the part about how you can access and analyse unstructured data and what is their place in BI systems. This is the end of a block of unstructured data and the beginning of a description of the enhanced version of BI. Finally, the current market situation and BI tools, which include unstructured data, are introduced. This section provides an overview of how BI tools approach to analyse unstructured data. Existed literature, professional and freely available Internet resources are used for writing the work. The purpose is to serve as a source of information for quickly orienting in the current situation, to serve as a guide to the world of BI solutions and to show potential users what are the options and functionality of these BI solutions.
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Architectural database refactoring
Nguyen Trung, Hoa ; Palovská, Helena (advisor) ; Krch, David (referee)
This bachelor thesis deals with database architectural refactorings. Its purpose is to describe each and every architectural refactoring method in detail on theoretical level with following author's own examples. These examples contain schema update mechanics and an outline of application code update. First of all, there will be an explanation of what refactoring stands for and what are the main differences between database refactoring and code refactoring. Following is detailed description of each and every architectural refactoring method with its principle, benefits and potential tradeoffs. The next part consists of author's own examples where update mechanics from theory are applied. Final chapter evaluates achievement of objectives, contribution of thesis and proposals on how can this thesis be extended.
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Analysis of the company environment
Hladík, Ondřej ; Dvořáček, Jiří (advisor) ; Strouhal, Jiří (referee)
This bachelor thesis deals with methods of analysing the company environment and then using these methods on a company Travel Service, a.s. The primary purpose is to determine main factors affecting the market position of this company. Methods used for analyzing the company environment are introduced in theoretical part of the thesis. For analysing the macroenvironment is used PEST analysis and Porter five force model is used for analysing the critical factors of macroenvironment. The thesis include SWOT analysis and recommendations for the company based on the collected informations.
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Consumers protection during the process of contracting
Kakáčková, Tereza ; Švarc, Zbyněk (advisor) ; Kříž, Radim (referee)
The main purpose of diploma thesis - Consumers protection during the process of contracting - was to analyze the consumer protection legislation at national level and European level. Thesis deals with consumers protection during the process of contracting in Czech Republic with closer focus on distance contracts and off-premises contracts. The general part of thesis provides a comprehensive insight into the private, public and European regulation of consumer law, as well as it summarizes basic concepts and consumer contracts more in detail. Two chapters of the general part are devoted to the distance contracts and to the off-premises contracts. Analytical part of thesis is based on quantitative research made by me. These results are compared with the results of two European surveys (Eurobarometers). The aim of the research was to define the attitude of Czech consumers to the consumer law, protection of the consumer rights and also find out more about their approach within the distance contracts.
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The Position of Chile in International Tourism
Beňadiková, Jana ; Valentová, Jana (advisor) ; Dragula, Ladislav (referee)
This diploma thesis analyses the position of Chile in international tourism. The main purpose is to evaluate Chile´s status in international tourism based on the competitiveness of the country. At the begining of the thesis, the theory is defined. Then, the economy and political backgroud of Chile is specified, followed by the description of the preconditions for tourism development and its competitiveness in the tourism industry. Moreover, inbound, outbound and domestic tourism are analysed and followed by tourism impact on the economy of the country. Last chapter predicts future development of international arrivals to the country based on the regression analysis.
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Design of the pilot Business Intelligence solution for e-commerce platform
Kabrhelová, Kateřina ; Novotný, Ota (advisor) ; Vysoký, Ondřej (referee)
This thesis deals with the design of the pilot Business Intelligence solution for e-commerce platform Shopio. The first part describes the theoretical concepts of Business Intelligence and e-commerce focused on possible approaches to performance measurement of electronic commerce. Furthermore there is a comparison of analytical tools for measuring performance of e-shops which are available on the Czech market. The second part of the thesis first describes the e-commerce platform and the current status of the reporting module. Then the requirement analysis is conducted for the purpose of identifying the current company client's needs and requirements. The new Business Intelligence solution is designed based on the identified requirements described in the previous chapters. This solution is then tested and verified with the use of real e-shop data. The main purpose of this thesis is to refine the current status of the reports and provide a better tool to measure the e-shop performance for the e-shop owners.
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