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Use of Interest Rate Models for Interest Rate Risk Management in the Czech Financial Market Environment
Cíchová Králová, Dana ; Arlt, Josef (advisor) ; Cipra, Tomáš (referee) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee)
The main goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to interest rate risk modeling in the Czech financial market environment in various situations. Three distinct periods are analyzed. These periods, which are the period before the global financial crisis, period during the financial crisis and in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and calming subsequent debt crisis in the eurozone, are characterized by different evaluation of liquidity and credit risk, different relationship between financial variables and market participants and different degree of market regulations. Within this goal, an application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment is crucial. Use of the BGM model for the purpose of predicting a dynamics of a yield curve is not very common. This is firstly due to the fact that primary use of this model is a valuation of interest rate derivatives while ensuring the absence of arbitrage and secondly its application is relatively difficult. Nevertheless, I apply the BGM model to obtain predictions of the probability distributions of interest rates in the Czech and eurozone market environment, because its complexity, direct modeling of a yield curve based on market rates and especially a possibility of parameter estimation based on current swaptions volatilities quotations may lead to a significant improvement of predictions. This improvement was also confirmed in this thesis. Use of swaptions volatilities market quotations is especially useful in the period of unprecedented mone- tary easing and increased number of central banks and other regulators interventions into financial markets that occur after the financial crisis, because it reflects current market expectations which also include future interventions. As a consequence of underdevelopment of the Czech financial market there are no market quotations of Czech koruna denominated swaptions volatilities. I suggest their approximations based on quotations of euro denominated swaptions volatilities and also using volatilities of koruna and euro forward rates. Use of this approach ensures that predictions of the Czech yield curve dynamics contain current market expectations. To my knowledge, any other author has not presented similar application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment. In this thesis I further predict a Czech and Euro area money market yield curve dynamics using the CIR and the GP models as representatives of various types of interest rates models to compare these predictions with BGM predictions. I suggest a comprehensive system of three criteria, based on comparison of predicti- ons with reality, to describe a predictive power of selected models and an appropria- teness of their use in the Czech market environment during different situations in the market. This analysis shows that predictions of the Czech money market yield curve dynamics based on the BGM model demonstrate high predictive power and the best 8 quality in comparison with other models. GP model also produces relatively good qua- lity predictions. Conversely, predictions based on the CIR model as a representative of short rate model family completely failed when describing reality. In a situation when the economy allows negative rates and there is simultaneously a significant likelihood of their implementation, I recommend to obtain predictions of Czech money market yield curve dynamics using GP model which allows existence of negative interest rates. This analysis also contains a statistical test for validating the predictive power of each model and information on other tests. Berkowitz test rejects a hypothesis of accurate predictions for each model. However, this fact is common in real data testing even when using relatively good model. This fact is especially caused by difficult fulfilment of test conditions in real world. To my knowledge, such an analysis of the predictive power of selected interest rate models moreover in the Czech financial market environment has not been published yet. The last goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to obtaining pre- dictions of Czech government bonds risk premium dynamics. I define this risk premium as a difference between government bond yields and fixed rate of CZK IRS with the same length. I apply the GP model to describe the dynamics of this indicator of the Czech Republic credit risk. In order to obtain a time series of the risk premium which are necessary for estimation of GP model parameters I firstly estimate yield curves of Czech government bonds using Svensson model for each trading day since 2005. Resulting si- mulations of risk premium show that the GP model predicts the real development of risk premiums of all maturities relatively well. Hence, the proposed approach is suitable for modeling of Czech Republic credit risk based on the use of information extracted from financial markets. I have not registered proposed approach to risk premium modeling moreover in the Czech financial market environment in other publications.
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Differences between men and women in the Czech labour market
Stroukal, Dominik ; Kadeřábková, Božena (advisor) ; Pavelka, Tomáš (referee) ; Němec, Otakar (referee)
This thesis consists of five articles that apply current world research on labor economics at the Czech Republic and confirms the significant differences between men and women in this market. It shows that gender has a significant influence on the preference on the labor market and, consequently, on employment and health. First, the thesis shows that preferences are relevant determinant of career and then we study the difference in preference of salary for men and women. Subsequently it shows that gender plays a significant role in explaining the relationship between homeownership, and unemployment, as well as unemployment and health. The first chapter was able to demonstrate that the preference for a career has a positive influence on the choice of career. The influence of higher education on prioritizing career proved to be positive and significant. Probability of a career choice is reduced by the presence of children, however, is not dependent on their number, which is contrary to the theory of preferences. The second chapter shows that Czech women prefer more non-monetary rewards than men. It has also been shown that people with university education are same in the preferences of non-monetary rewards regardless of the gender of the respondents, however, compared to the world's research, the Czech higher education increases this preference. It turned out that women prefer risk less than men. The third chapter demonstrates that although the housing market undermines labor mobility and employment in the Czech Republic at the regional level, therefore, that in regions with a higher rate of home ownership is higher unemployment, at the individual level, the owners of housing are unemployed are less likely. The estimates are significantly different for men and women. Men living in owner-occupied housing have a higher likelihood of employment than women. At regional level, however, this thesis shows that the high rate of home ownership increases unemployment for both men and women, in the long run only to women. The fourth chapter showed that men transition to homeownership reduces the likelihood of unemployment next year. For women, this relationship has proved to be insignificant. In addition, as insignificant showed the opposite relationship, the transition from unemployment to the newly acquired home ownership. The last chapter shows that the change in the working status to unemployment will increase in the future probability of worse health. Influence in less than two years, however, proved to be significant. An important conclusion is that men have a significantly stronger relationship between health and unemployment than women.
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Analysis and implementation process of system Prosoft for a hospital
Grečner, Eduard ; Pour, Jan (advisor) ; Fortinová, Jana (referee)
The main objective of this thesis is to analyze the information system by company Prosoft and its current state of use at a hospital in Košice. The work is divided into two parts. The first part is to elucidate the company Prosoft, as such, but also the products and services it offers. In the second part we will learn about the system requirements and the requirements from hospital to company, but the main part is to analyze the functionality of the system and a description of its implementation. The result of this work is to present useful information on an information system designed specifically for medical uses. It also suggests some improvements that would help the system to greater efficiency and popularity.
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Analysis of readiness of the Czech Republic for entry into the Eurozone
Skála, Martin ; Pavelka, Tomáš (advisor) ; Krameš, Jaroslav (referee)
The aim of this thesis is to analyze readiness of the Czech Republic for accession to the European Monetary Union. Although we celebrated 12th anniversary of our membership in the European Union, the Czech government still has not set a date of entrance to the Eurozone. The theoretical part of my thesis focuses on analysis of fulfillment of Maastricht criteria, which had to be fulfilled by each candidate country for membership in the currency union. In the practical part of this thesis I will evaluate the macroeconomics impacts of adapting the common European currency in new member countries. In conclusion, I will try to outline benefits and costs of membership of the Czech Republic in the Eurozone.
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Analysis of the company environment
Hladík, Ondřej ; Dvořáček, Jiří (advisor) ; Strouhal, Jiří (referee)
This bachelor thesis deals with methods of analysing the company environment and then using these methods on a company Travel Service, a.s. The primary purpose is to determine main factors affecting the market position of this company. Methods used for analyzing the company environment are introduced in theoretical part of the thesis. For analysing the macroenvironment is used PEST analysis and Porter five force model is used for analysing the critical factors of macroenvironment. The thesis include SWOT analysis and recommendations for the company based on the collected informations.
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Methods of Competitive Intelligence for chemical industrial companies
Lisová, Martina ; Molnár, Zdeněk (advisor) ; Kocánek, Marek (referee)
The content of this thesis is the introduction of Competitive Intelligence and its methods to companies in the chemical industry. The main objective of this work is to create particular solution of Competitive Intelligence for Lovochemie, a.s., i.e. to propose competent employee who will be periodically monitor the selected information resources using Competitive Intelligence software tools. The analyses were used to achieve this objective. At first analysis of the chemical industry was conducted in the Czech Republic and also in the world and analysis of the selected company has been created. Information resources that the company should follow through Competitive Intelligence tools were selected on the basis of this information. The first part deals with the introduction of Competitive Intelligence, intelligence cycle CI, strategic analysis methods and Competitive Intelligence tools for searching and monitoring of information on the Internet. The second part is devoted to the aforementioned analysis. At first the chemical industry is analysed and the world's biggest fertilizers producers are described. This section also introduces the company called Lovochemie, a.s., its competitors, suppliers and customers. In the last part of this thesis, the information resources available to the company and selected Competitive Intelligence tools are described. Finally, the particular solution for Lovochemie is created.
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Discussion on US sanctions against Cuba at the U.N. General Assembly
Šplíchalová, Eva ; Trávníčková, Zuzana (advisor) ; Machoň, Miloslav (referee)
The United States imposed the longest lasting sanction regime on Cuba in 1960 as a result of strained relations in recent years. Each US administration modified form of the sanctions regime, depending on the attitude toward the Cuban issue. General Assembly, the highest authority of the UN, adopts not legally binding but politically significant resolutions. Resolution condemning US sanctions regime has been adopted annually since 1992. Discussion on changes of the sanction regime in the General Assembly is a sign of reflection on current events and unrigid process of resolutions adoption. The main purpose is to determine whether the changes of the sanction regime were mentioned in the discussions on the adoption of the resolutions. The result of the analysis shows the reflection of the events in the speeches of ambassadors. The amount of mentioned events in speeches depends whether they were positive or negative step toward easing the embargo, and also how important the event was.
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Deformometrická a výšková měření v katastrálním území obce Dětmarovice v roce 2016
Kajzar, Vlastimil ; Staš, Lubomír
Ústav geoniky AV ČR, v.v.i. v Ostravě byl v souvislosti s uvažovaným hlubinným dobýváním uhelných zásob a jeho možného vlivu na katastrální území Dětmarovice požádán v roce 2001 Dolem ČSA o posouzení případných vlivů poddolování na stabilitu svahů na vybrané části katastrálního území Dětmarovice. Důsledkem dobývání jsou, mimo jiné, i poklesy povrchu, což vzhledem ke stávající morfologii terénu v předmětném katastrálním území vyvolalo obavu, zda tyto poklesy nebudou dále indukovat svahové pohyby. V listopadu 2001 tedy byla v dané lokalitě vybudována kontrolní monitorovací síť o čtyřech individuálních profilech. Na těchto přímkách bylo doporučeno provádět ve stejných intervalech deformometrická (délková) a nivelační (výšková) měření. Z následného periodického deformometrického a nivelačního monitoringu těchto svahů ještě před začátkem rozvoje poklesové kotliny do sledované oblasti a dále v období projevů účinků dobývání je pak možné stanovit, zda vůbec k vývoji svahových deformací dochází, a následně na možné příčiny případných pohybů poukázat (morfologicko-geotechnické a klimatické přírodní podmínky, hornická a antropogenní činnost aj.).
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Height measurement in the northern area of mining areas Doubrava and Karviná Mines In 2016
Kajzar, Vlastimil ; Waclawik, Petr ; Staš, Lubomír
In the northern area of mining areas Doubrava and Karvina mines on the border RA Detmarovice and Doubrava are implemented, the mining activities. For this reason, in order to detect possible effects of the mine to the surface and surface objects twice a year height focuses, points in this area stable. From 2014 he was a contractor for these works chosen by the Institute of Geonics, v.v.i., Ostrava. In August and November 2016 survey conducted campaigns planned this year, during which it conducted a total of 4 highrise focus of inter-related leveling routes, which are formed by these points. Highrise points are stabilized in the area of interest in several ways - usually in steel design height marks on buildings, then as an iron bolt concreted in the ground or using nails driven into the concrete foundation or other alternative means. Distribution points in the area of interest is indicative captured in the map appendix. Existing trace and focus points are highlighted in green, yellow trace inaccessible points, refocused points in red and violet points that have occurred to their long term disablement or destruction. Each zaměřovaných points in order to trace the terrain carefully documented (GPS coordinates, photos, text description) and registered. These documents are available from the contractor.
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