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Use of Interest Rate Models for Interest Rate Risk Management in the Czech Financial Market Environment
Cíchová Králová, Dana ; Arlt, Josef (advisor) ; Cipra, Tomáš (referee) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee)
The main goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to interest rate risk modeling in the Czech financial market environment in various situations. Three distinct periods are analyzed. These periods, which are the period before the global financial crisis, period during the financial crisis and in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and calming subsequent debt crisis in the eurozone, are characterized by different evaluation of liquidity and credit risk, different relationship between financial variables and market participants and different degree of market regulations. Within this goal, an application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment is crucial. Use of the BGM model for the purpose of predicting a dynamics of a yield curve is not very common. This is firstly due to the fact that primary use of this model is a valuation of interest rate derivatives while ensuring the absence of arbitrage and secondly its application is relatively difficult. Nevertheless, I apply the BGM model to obtain predictions of the probability distributions of interest rates in the Czech and eurozone market environment, because its complexity, direct modeling of a yield curve based on market rates and especially a possibility of parameter estimation based on current swaptions volatilities quotations may lead to a significant improvement of predictions. This improvement was also confirmed in this thesis. Use of swaptions volatilities market quotations is especially useful in the period of unprecedented mone- tary easing and increased number of central banks and other regulators interventions into financial markets that occur after the financial crisis, because it reflects current market expectations which also include future interventions. As a consequence of underdevelopment of the Czech financial market there are no market quotations of Czech koruna denominated swaptions volatilities. I suggest their approximations based on quotations of euro denominated swaptions volatilities and also using volatilities of koruna and euro forward rates. Use of this approach ensures that predictions of the Czech yield curve dynamics contain current market expectations. To my knowledge, any other author has not presented similar application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment. In this thesis I further predict a Czech and Euro area money market yield curve dynamics using the CIR and the GP models as representatives of various types of interest rates models to compare these predictions with BGM predictions. I suggest a comprehensive system of three criteria, based on comparison of predicti- ons with reality, to describe a predictive power of selected models and an appropria- teness of their use in the Czech market environment during different situations in the market. This analysis shows that predictions of the Czech money market yield curve dynamics based on the BGM model demonstrate high predictive power and the best 8 quality in comparison with other models. GP model also produces relatively good qua- lity predictions. Conversely, predictions based on the CIR model as a representative of short rate model family completely failed when describing reality. In a situation when the economy allows negative rates and there is simultaneously a significant likelihood of their implementation, I recommend to obtain predictions of Czech money market yield curve dynamics using GP model which allows existence of negative interest rates. This analysis also contains a statistical test for validating the predictive power of each model and information on other tests. Berkowitz test rejects a hypothesis of accurate predictions for each model. However, this fact is common in real data testing even when using relatively good model. This fact is especially caused by difficult fulfilment of test conditions in real world. To my knowledge, such an analysis of the predictive power of selected interest rate models moreover in the Czech financial market environment has not been published yet. The last goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to obtaining pre- dictions of Czech government bonds risk premium dynamics. I define this risk premium as a difference between government bond yields and fixed rate of CZK IRS with the same length. I apply the GP model to describe the dynamics of this indicator of the Czech Republic credit risk. In order to obtain a time series of the risk premium which are necessary for estimation of GP model parameters I firstly estimate yield curves of Czech government bonds using Svensson model for each trading day since 2005. Resulting si- mulations of risk premium show that the GP model predicts the real development of risk premiums of all maturities relatively well. Hence, the proposed approach is suitable for modeling of Czech Republic credit risk based on the use of information extracted from financial markets. I have not registered proposed approach to risk premium modeling moreover in the Czech financial market environment in other publications.
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Strategic analysis of a company RIO Media a.s.
Sláma, Jan ; Boukal, Petr (advisor) ; Krause, Josef (referee)
The aim of the Bachelor's Thesis is to undertake a strategic analysis of the company RIO Media, a.s. The analysis is performed for the period of 2011-2015 with regard to other periods, where it is beneficial. The analysis is done through external analysis, enriched with internal inputs. The analysis is divided into two main sections. First is dealing with theoretical and methodological approaches, which explain the various terms used, methods and their application form. Second part is practical, which builds on the previous section and uses these methods in practice. It also analyzes current trends and significant outputs are processed partly in the SWOT analysis and fully processed at the conclusion. The benefit of this work is to determine the company's position within the industry and to form recommendations for further improvement in this position.
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Application of Monte Carlo simulations in banking
Boruta, Matěj ; Teplý, Petr (advisor) ; Fučík, Vojtěch (referee)
Currently, banking is exposed to huge market risks. One of those risks is occurrence of negative interest rates in the EU. Nowadays, it is important to use sophisticated and modern measurement tools and approaches to measure and manage banking risks. One of those methods is Monte Carlo simulation. This bachelor thesis is aimed at analysis and prediction of 3-month maturity Prague Interest Offer Rate (PRIBOR) for 3, 6 and 12 months with using Monte Carlo simulations. It was found that this method is suitable for prediction market variables with low volatility. If anybody uses this method, it is necessity to have in mind all pitfalls and assumptions, that this method includes, as an adequate random generated number of scenarios, approximation of correct probability distribution, independence of dataset and not least, as far as possible, to focus on factors generating randomness of market variable and not the prices, that express rather consequences of randomness than its cause. Further, the Monte Carlo prediction was compared with prognosis of the Czech Nation Bank and it was found that Monte Carlo prediction is more accurate for short term predictions. 12-month prediction of Monte Carlo simulation discovered also possible occurrence of negative interest rate at 0,05% level of probability in compare to the Czech National Bank prognosis, where was no negative interest rate predicted.
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Analysis of Reporting in Business and its Technological Coverage by Microsoft BI
Lučan, Martin ; Pour, Jan (advisor) ; Pavlíčková, Jarmila (referee)
This master thesis deals with an analysis of reporting in business and its technological coverage by Microsoft Business Intelligence portfolio. The main objective of this work is to analyze the individual organization's requirements on reporting and coverage options. This work can serve as a tool for implementation of reporting in a company or for increasing the efficiency of reporting. The first part is theoretical. It deals with Business Intelligence as an environment for reporting. It also defines the basic concepts. The next part covers the area of reporting. This section provides an insight into the history, definition of outcomes and detailed classification of reporting from different perspectives. Furthermore, the definition of users reporting and the reporting standards in companies is also covered. At the end of this chapter, there is the definition of the benefits of reporting for companies. The main part of this master thesis is an analysis of the requirements for reporting in companies. The chapter defines five key perspectives which are described in a greater detail. The methods how companies should methodically approach these requirements are also discussed. The chapter further looks at the requirements for a concrete report. An output of this chapter is an effective template for gathering requirements for a specific report. The last chapter focuses on reporting portfolio analysis of Microsoft and defines the concept of Microsoft. It provides detailed information about reporting products that Microsoft offers. An analyses and a mapping of the individual characteristics of the products and the requirements is defined in this thesis.
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Optimalization of material flow in automotive industry
Kolář, Tomáš ; Jirsák, Petr (advisor) ; Vinš, Marek (referee)
This master thesis is focussed on optimalization of material flow in an automotive company. First part introduce theoretical background. Automotive industry and its actual trends on global markets. Follows short introduction of the company where project of this thesis was executed. Main theoretical part describes concept of lean management, its tools in practical examples, but it is also focussed on philosophical approach to the work and mindset of the company. Follows the aplication part based on theoretical background. The whole project of this master thesis is focussed on specific area called PC store. At first this area is showed in context of overall material flow. Shortly there are introduced processes and areas where full material packaging flows. Follows deeper analysis and optimalization of PC store itself. There are three approaches of stock and lead time reduction applied. Last part shows the comparison of initial and future state including performed changes.
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Developing open approach to mathematics in future primary school teachers
Samková, L. ; Tichá, Marie
In our contribution we focus on the possibility to develop open approach to mathematics in future primary school teachers during a university course on mathematics conducted in inquiry-based manner. We analyse data obtained in the beginning and in the end of the course with respect to two main aspects related to open approach to mathematics: searching for all solutions of a task, and acceptance of different forms of notation of a given solution. Data analysis revealed in the participants three different shifts towards open approach to mathematics, and showed that after the active participation in the course each of the participants improved at least in one of the monitored aspects, and that none of the participants got worse in any of the aspects.
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A Comparison of Preconditioning Methods for Saddle Point Problems with an Application to Porous Media Flow Problems
Axelsson, Owe ; Blaheta, Radim ; Hasal, Martin
The paper overviews and compares some block preconditioners for the solution of saddle point systems, especially systems arising from the Brinkman model of porous media flow. The considered preconditioners involve different Schur complements as inverse free Schur complement in HSS (Hermitian - Skew Hermitian Splitting preconditioner), Schur complement to the velocity matrix and finally Schur complement to a regularization block in the augmented matrix preconditioner. The inverses appearing in most of the considered Schur complements are approximated by simple sparse approximation techniques as element-by-element and Frobenius norm minimization approaches. A special interest is devoted to problems involving various Darcy, Stokes and Brinkman flow regions, the efficiency of preconditioners in this case is demonstrated by some numerical experiments.
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Modelling, parameter estimation, optimisation and control of transport and reaction processes in bioreactors.
ŠTUMBAUER, Václav
With the significant potential of microalgae as a major biofuel source of the future, a considerable scientific attention is attracted towards the field of biotechnology and bioprocess engineering. Nevertheless the current photobioreactor (PBR) design methods are still too empirical. With this work I would like to promote the idea of designing a production system, such as a PBR, completely \emph{in silico}, thus allowing for the in silico optimization and optimal control determination. The thesis deals with the PBR modeling and simulation. It addresses two crucial issues in the current state-of-the-art PBR modeling. The first issue relevant to the deficiency of the currently available models - the incorrect or insufficient treatment of either the transport process modeling, the reaction modeling or the coupling between these two models. A correct treatment of both the transport and the reaction phenomena is proposed in the thesis - in the form of a unified modeling framework consisting of three interconnected parts - (i) the state system, (ii) the fluid-dynamic model and (iii) optimal control determination. The proposed model structure allows prediction of the PBR performance with respect to the modelled PBR size, geometry, operating conditions or a particular microalgae strain. The proposed unified modeling approach is applied to the case of the Couette-Taylor photobioreactor (CTBR) where it is used for the optimal control solution. The PBR represents a complex multiscale problem and especially in the case of the production scale systems, the associated computational costs are paramount. This is the second crucial issue addressed in the thesis. With respect to the computational complexity, the fluid dynamics simulation is the most costly part of the PBR simulation. To model the fluid flow with the classical CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) methods inside a production scale PBR leads to an enormous grid size. This usually requires a parallel implementation of the solver but in the parallelization of the classical methods lies another relevant issue - that of the amount of data the individual nodes must interchange with each other. The thesis addresses the performance relevant issues by proposing and evaluation alternative approaches to the fluid flow simulation. These approaches are more suitable to the parallel implementation than the classical methods because of their rather local character in comparison to the classical methods - namely the Lattice Boltzmann Method (LBM) for fluid flow, which is the primary focus of the thesis in this regard and alternatively also the discrete random walk based method (DRW). As the outcome of the thesis I have developed and validated a new Lagrangian general modeling approach to the transport and reaction processes in PBR - a framework based on the Lattice Boltzmann method (LBM) and the model of the Photosynthetic Factory (PSF) that models correctly the transport and reaction processes and their coupling. Further I have implemented a software prototype based on the proposed modeling approach and validated this prototype on the case of the Coutte-Taylor PBR. I have also demonstrated that the modeling approach has a significant potential from the computational costs point of view by implementing and validating the software prototype on the parallel architecture of CUDA (Compute Unified Device Architecture). The current parallel implementation is approximately 20 times faster than the unparallized one and decreases thus significantly the iteration cycle of the PBR design process.
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Effect of snowpack on runoff generation during rain on snow event.
Juras, Roman ; Máca, Petr (advisor) ; Ladislav , Ladislav (referee)
During a winter season, when snow covers the watershed, the frequency of rain-on-snow (ROS) events is still raising. ROS can cause severe natural hazards like floods or wet avalanches. Prediction of ROS effects is linked to better understanding of snowpack runoff dynamics and its composition. Deploying rainfall simulation together with hydrological tracers was tested as a convenient tool for this purpose. Overall 18 sprinkling experiments were conducted on snow featuring different initial conditions in mountainous regions over middle and western Europe.
Dye tracer brilliant blue (FCF) was used for flow regime determination, because it enables to visualise preferential paths and layers interface. Snowpack runoff composition was assessed by hydrograph separation method, which provided appropriate results with acceptable uncertainty. It was not possible to use concurrently these two techniques because of technical reasons, however it would extend our gained knowledge. Snowmelt water amount in the snowpack runoff was estimated by energy balance (EB) equation, which is very efficient but quality inputs demanding. This was also the reason, why EB was deployed within only single experiment.
Timing of snowpack runoff onset decrease mainly with the rain intensity. Initial snowpack properties like bulk density or wetness are less important for time of runoff generation compared to the rain intensity. On the other het when same rain intensity was applied, non-ripe snowpack featuring less bulk density created runoff faster than the ripe snowpack featuring higher bulk density. Snowpack runoff magnitude mainly depends on the snowpack initial saturation. Ripe snowpack with higher saturation enabled to generate higher cumulative runoff where contributed by max 50 %. In contrary, rainwater travelled through the non-ripe snowpack relatively fast and contributed runoff by approx. 80 %.
Runoff prediction was tested by deploying Richards equation included in SNOWPACK model. The model was modified using a dual-domain approach to better simulate snowpack runoff under preferential flow conditions. Presented approach demonstrated an improvement in all simulated aspects compared to the more traditional method when only matrix flow is considered.
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Design of Experiment for Non-Stationary Processes of Production
Jadrná, Monika ; Macák, Tomáš (advisor)
The doctoral thesis is concerned with the services sector and the area of mass production. Particularly, the optimization of the product portfolio of the travel agency and the optimization of production rounds of ammunition.
The theoretical part deals with the current overview of discussed topic. Further, the terminology and methods of the decision-making process are defined to support decision making. The theoretical basis of research focused on the choice of appropriate input variables in the area of services, and on the choice of a particular material option in the production area and appropriate equipment for the production. The theoretical part forms the basis for the practical part of the thesis.
For the doctoral thesis was chosen an enterprise operating in the defined sector. Product portfolio for the services sector is optimised using Fuzzy logic and Fuzzy sets so that the enterprise can maintain its competitiveness in todays highly ambitious market. Product portfolio for manufacture is optimised for achieving desired properties of the product.
The main aim of the thesis is to propose a new methodological approach for the management of selected business processes in their nonstationary time course. The aim of the practical implementation is to verify the functionality of the proposed methodological approach, both in the area of services and in the field of mass production.
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