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Local Self-Defence Militias as Counterinsurgents: The Possibility, Willingness and Rationality of Selective Violence against Insurgents
Gilg, Jakob Julian ; Karásek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Ludvík, Zdeněk (referee)
Local Self-Defence Militias as Counterinsurgents The Possibility, Willingness and Rationality of Selective Violence against Insurgents Autor: Jakob J. Gilg Submitted: 31.07.2019 Abstract How do local self-defence militias (LSDMs) influence violence against civilians in civil conflicts? Compared to other types of pro-government militias (PGMs), LSDMs are active in their home area. This results in abundant local information that can be used to identify and target insurgents and their supporters selectively. Furthermore, LSDMs are part of the local community, resulting in strong social ties, making indiscriminate violence against the community less likely. Finally, since LSDMs are dependent on popular support and cannot move on to a new area after violent acts, they are incentivised to retain local support by abstaining from civilian targeting. Therefore, I hypothesise that LSDMs are more likely to employ selective violence, and that their deployment decreases civilian fatalities in civil conflicts. To empirically test this claim in a global sample, I use 1) a logistic regression to assess the likelihood of selective violence of PGMs (H1), and 2) a negative binomial regression to evaluate the expected number of civilians killed by the government (H2). The results for the first hypothesis suggest an increased...
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Comparison of the counter-insurgency strategy in Iraq in 2007 and 2014
Bora, Daniel ; Doboš, Bohumil (advisor) ; Aslan, Emil (referee)
This thesis deals with the use of the counter-insurgency strategy in Iraq in 2007 and 2014. In the first part the author defines key concepts like insurgency, legitimacy and COIN doctrine. The part dealing with COIN is extended by two modifications of the US army's field manual FM 3-24/MCWP 3-33.5 from 2007 and 2014 which, in fact, applies COIN principles on the specific Iraqi environment. Followed by two case studies, which describe the particular strategy in Iraq in 2007 and 2014. At the end of each case study empirical data are is examined. For text continuity the first case study is extended by a chapter which describes interim between 2010 and 2014 and points out possible causes of the emergence of ISIS. The final chapter provides a comparison of the two examined case studies and the author tries to evaluate the success of each of them. Eventually the author provides recommendations which should prevent the re- emergence of groups like ISIS or AQI. Another outcome of this thesis is a prediction of possible development in Iraq.
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The Evolution of American Contrainsurgency in the Vietnam and Iraq Wars
Reif, Tomáš ; Raška, Francis (advisor) ; Bečka, Jan (referee)
The United States was throughout the history engaged in several conflicts which had a character of counterinsurgency. These are - among others- War in Vietnam and second War in Iraq. These two conflicts are examined in this diploma thesis. Author poses a question how did counterinsurgency tactics evolved in both conflicts. The second question is whether the United States implemented counterinsurgency experiences from Vietnam War in Iraq War and if so, how they were implemented. The United States developed several counterinsurgency programs and the most of them were successful - they prevented Vietcong from spreading its influence in South Vietnam. However these programs were often poorly financed, or they did not gain enough support from The US Army, because the Army prefered conventional approach in fighting against communists. The United States fought a conventional warfare in the first few years of Iraq War and it had not succeeded in garnering popularity among civilians. The change came with a new commander- general David Petraeus. Petraeus was inspired by the experiences from the Vietnam War (and other conflicts) and he concentrated his effort on providing safety to Iraqi population. This strategy paid off and the Army had much less losses during his command then during the pre - 2007 period....
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Unmanned Aerial Vehicles in US National Security Policy. New Face of War of Terror
Matějka, Stanislav ; Raška, Francis (advisor) ; Anděl, Petr (referee)
The paper deals with the use of unmanned aircraft of the American national security policy. It examines the history of unmanned aviation, its military use, and cost- efficiency. It then examines the main obstacles and problems with their use in national security that this technology meets and will meet in the future after a higher level of autonomy is developed. These problems involve legal issues, international and domestic American law, the issue of civilian casualties, the role of the media, and public opinion. The final chapter focuses on the problems of technical, strategic and operational issues. In this section the research paper comes to the first conclusion which claims that the introduction of more autonomous systems to war will radically change its structure and, consequently, standard procedures and strategies. Case studies are included to illustrate how successful the drone strategy is applied in the five countries where the United States leads a war on terror. The research using the theory of the revolution in military affairs concludes that these UAVs pose the greatest challenge in history and it goes well beyond military matters. UAVs in national security affect the understanding of the basic principles of war in relation to the concepts of warrior ethos and just war.
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United States of America and counterinsurgency: Afghanistan
Petráš, Vojtěch ; Střítecký, Vít (advisor) ; Karásek, Tomáš (referee)
Counterinsurgency warfare has had an ambiguous position in the American military tradition. After the Vietnam experience, the population-control-oriented doctrine of David Galula was almost forgotten. Current war of the United States of America in Afghanistan turned out to be a conflict where application of the doctrine comes in question. It is codified in the 2006 FM 3-24 counterinsurgency manual. The author of the thesis Spojené státy americké a protipovstalecký boj: Afghánistán asks a question whether the behavior of American armed forces in Afghanistan was in compliance with the COIN doctrine of David Galula. The author looks at the conflict through lens of Galula's eight counterinsurgency steps, as defined in his book Counterinsurgency Warfare: Theory and Practice. The author of the thesis looks for factors that could influence fulfilment of the steps and he gives the factors in perspective with American strategic culture, as defined in the thesis. The analysis shows that the fulfilment of Galula's eight steps has never occurred. Traditional military thinking partially locked successful adaptation of American armed forces to the environment of Afghanistan. However, the author comes to the discovery that in terms of strategic culture, there were some shifts in Afghanistan.
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Counterinsurgency in Afghanistan: Soviet vs. American model
Vargová, Hana ; Střítecký, Vít (advisor) ; Ditrych, Ondřej (referee)
This Thesis attempts to be an overview of the so far achievements accomplished in the fight against the Afghani rebels and in the reconstruction and state-building in Afghanistan. The author seeks to analyse strategies applied by the Soviets during the Cold War invasion (1979- 1989) and the Western allies under the U.S. leadership in cooperation with NATO (2001- present). The paper describes tactics of the invaders in the two wars and identifies "tipping points" when the conventionally stronger invading powers had to resort to counterinsurgency tactics. The author applies counterinsurgency warfare theory presented by David Galula and others in those phases of conflicts in order to evaluate the success or failure of given strategies. The theoretical framework consists of the theory of asymmetrical conflicts, insurgency warfare and counterinsurgency theory with special focus on its implications when applied in Afghanistan. The main goal of the work is to analyse the weaknesses of the Soviet strategy and to inquire whether the Western allies are not repeating the same mistakes their Cold War counterparts committed.
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Position of Airpower in Contemporary Strategy
Černý, Tomáš ; Střítecký, Vít (advisor) ; Ludvík, Jan (referee)
This thesis deals with the current role of airpower in contemporary warfare. In last 100 years, the aircraft became an indisputable part of today's armed conflict. The aim of this work is to determine the mechanics behind airpower's functions in conflicts and to critically assess airpower's performance. The analyzed conflicts - Persian Gulf 1991, Kosovo 1999, Afghanistan 2001 and U. S.-led counterinsurgency campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan - provide the diversity that is needed to reveal the position of airpower in contemporary strategy. The thesis is divided in three parts. The first part follows the evolution of airpower and its theory, providing context to further analysis of contemporary environment. The second part of the thesis identifies key theoretical concepts and modalities connected to airpower and analysis them on a general, theoretical basis. The third part of this thesis applies the concepts and modalities on the picked case studies in order to reach the suggested objectives by analyzing the conflicts and deriving empirical data. The conclusions of the thesis suggest that while slightly exaggerated, airpower grew to vital importance and became one of the key elements in today's conflicts.
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