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Three Essays on Central European Foreign Exchange Markets
Moravcová, Michala ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Komárek, Luboš (referee) ; Baumohl, Eduard (referee) ; Pappas, Vasileios (referee)
This dissertation thesis consists of three essays on new EU foreign exchange markets (FX), i.e. the Czech koruna, Polish zloty and Hungarian forint. In the first two essays, the impact of foreign macroeconomic news announcements and central banks' monetary policy settings on the value and volatility of examined exchange rates is analyzed. In the third chapter, the conditional comovements and volatility spillovers on new EU FX markets is examined. The aim of this thesis is to contribute to the existing empirical literature by providing new evidence of the examined currencies during periods, which have not been examined yet (after the Global financial crisis (GFC), during the EU debt crisis and during currency interventions in the Czech Republic). The first essay (Chapter 2) examines the impact of Eurozone/Germany and US macroeconomic news announcements and monetary policy settings of the ECB and the Fed on the value of new EU member states' currencies. It is a complex analysis of 1-minute intraday dataset performed by event study methodology (ESM). We observe different reactions of exchange rates in pair with the US dollar on the US macroeconomic announcements and Euro-expressed FX rates on Germany macro news during the EU debt crisis and after it. We also provide evidence of leaking news, showing...
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Testing of successfulness of technical analysis' trading and trending indicators
Točevová, Radka ; Veselá, Jitka (advisor) ; Fičura, Milan (referee)
The goal of this master's thesis is to evaluate the successfulness of the strategies' portfolio and of trading and trending indicators, which are parts of the portfolio, through this evaluation. The theoretical part concerns with the key principles of the foreign exchange market which the portfolio is created for. After that, the individual technical indicators, which are used in the analytical part of the thesis, are analyzed in detail. Then in the following part, the development process of automated trading systems in case of the genetic algorithms' application is defined. Individual generated trading systems are described in the next segment separately. Their descriptions are followed by evaluation of outcomes of testing on historical data and of robustness' tests. Afterwards, the correlations between individual strategies are mentioned. The thesis concludes by efficiency evaluation of strategies' portfolio via backtest results and paper testing.
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The Impact of the Tobin Tax in a Heterogeneous Agent Model of the Foreign Exchange Market
Staněk, Filip ; Kukačka, Jiří (advisor) ; Klinger, Tomáš (referee)
In this thesis, we assess the impact of the Tobin tax on key statistics of exchange rate returns with use of a heterogeneous agent based model. The answer to the question of how transaction costs affect exchange rate dynamics is not only interesting from a theoretical point of view but also has practical implications as several regulators are contemplating imposition of such a tax nowadays. Motivated by the recent research showing the great importance of the mar- ket micro structure, we choose to explore the impact of the tax in a market cleared by the Walrasian auctioneer. This settings, as we argue, could resem- ble the two layered structure of the real foreign exchanges more closely than a price impact function which is often adopted in studies regarding the Tobin tax. To assess the impact of the tax, we extend the model of De Grauwe & Grimaldi (2004) by the inclusion of transaction costs. The original model con- sists of boundedly rational agents who use a blend of fundamental and technical analysis to predict the future exchange rate. An ongoing competition between the forecasting rules creates chaotic price movements not dissimilar to the ones observed in the real foreign exchanges. We use computational methods to assess the effect of the Tobin tax within the model and find that the Tobin tax is...
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Developing of Trading Strategy for Currency Market
Sauer, Václav ; Petrovský, Jonáš (referee) ; Budík, Jan (advisor)
This thesis deals with the design, implementation and optimization of the automated trading system for the foreign exchange market. Thesis analyses theoretical aspects for the system implementation, including introduction of foreign exchange market, types of market analysis, money management, risk management and technical indicators. The thesis further describes, what is required for development of such system and what important parts the system must contain. The work also describes how the system can be tested and optimised based on historical data.
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Design and Implementation of Automatic Trading System for Foriegn Exchange Market
Vojtěch, Tomáš ; Stoklásek, Libor (referee) ; Budík, Jan (advisor)
This diploma thesis deals with the design of a trading strategy and subsequent implementation of an automated trading system for the forex currency market. In this thesis, a "breakout" strategy with trade filtering based on moving average is created. Consequently, an automated trading system for the MetaTrader 4 platform is developed in MQL4 language. This thesis also deals with the back-testing and optimization of the system in order to maximize the stability and profit.
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Design of Business Strategy in the Currency Market
Havlík, Tomáš ; Svoboda, Roman (advisor) ; Michal, Michal (referee)
This thesis is about basics of forex the currency market. The main objective of the thesis is to create a forex business strategy, which should be functional, complex and profitable in long term. Testing of this strategy based on historical data and using a real investment account will follow.
Thesis is divided into three main chapters. Starting with theoretical part, where we define basic terms, which will be used later, mainly in analytical chapter. Another important part of this chapter will be about three basic approaches how to analyze market, called technical, funamental and relational analysis.
The second major chapter is analytical part, in which we are going to build trading strategy Strategie Tomáše Havlíka. This specific trading strategy will compared to the most comonly used trading strategies, tested using historical data and on live account. There will be couple of hand picked trades, which will be analyzed as another part of this chapter.
Chapter evaluation of results is focusd not only on evaluating each currency pair and it s various timeframes, but other statistics too, which where acquired during the testing period. Average 50% year over year rentability reached on hourly timeframe and 30% rentability reached on four hour timeframe proves the overall profitability and usefulness of the strategy.
Finally, the Conclussion, chapter where we focus on future development of the trading strategy and its integration into a komplex trading approach, which consists of several trading strategies, which are ultimately creating cooperative entity.
Information, which will create a backbone of this thesis, will be accquired from respected books aswell as well known internet sources, written mainly by group of authors called FXstreet.cz and British trader Anna Coulling.
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Design and Optimization of Automated Trading System on the Currency Markets
Kanoš, Petr ; Stoklásek, Libor (referee) ; Budík, Jan (advisor)
This master thesis deals with design of automated trading system for currency trading. The thesis includes testing of this system on historical data and its optimization for achieving stability and profit. Thesis is divided into theoretical, analytical and practical part. The goal of the first part is to provide theoretical knowledge of the currency market, methods for analysis of the currency market and to define fundamental terminology. Second part describes properties of technical analysis indicators and introduces optimization and testing methods for automated trading systems. The last part is focused on design, implementation, optimization and testing of the automated trading systems.
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Proposal for an Automatic Trading System for Foreign Exchange Market
Kolář, Jan ; Stoklásek, Libor (referee) ; Budík, Jan (advisor)
The thesis deals with designing an automated trading system, especially for intra-day trading the currency markets. The aim is to create a comprehensive theoretical background, practical work knowledge can be used to develop appropriate automated trading system. The thesis is an emphasis on technical and partly a psychological analysis of currency markets. Designed system will be suitably optimized to maximize profits and stability of applications on the most liquid currency pairs.
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