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Analýza rakouské teorie hospodářského cyklu z pohledu komplexní ekonomie
Lanzafame, Alessandra ; Bernat, Lukáš (advisor) ; Pavlík, Ján (referee)
This thesis analyzes the Austrian business cycle theory (ABCT) from the Complexity Economics approach. Complexity Economics is an approach which comes from the complexity science. It has started to develop since 1980s' in Santa Fe Institute, the leading institution engaging in the research of complexity. In the thesis I mention the terms which are bound to Complexity Economics, for example emergence, the "bottom-up", self-organization, bounded rationality etc. The evolution of the markets, networks and nonlinear dynamics are included in Complexity Economics as well. Complexity Economics views an economy as a dynamical system which never reaches the equilibrium unlike the Traditional Economics approach which main focus is on the general equilibrium of the economy. Another difference would be the way of modelling economies in which Complexity Economics is leaving the unrealistic assumptions because it utilizes the agent-based simulations which enable to do that. In the thesis I also focus on the similarities between Austrian and Complexity Economics, for example the heterogeneity of the agents or the emergence of the price system. These and others similarities are then applied in the analysis of ABCT which serves as an example of demonstration that Austrian Economics could provide the theoretical framework for Complexity Economics which aspires to become a new paradigm in economics.
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Austrian Business Cycle Theory - the role of consumer durable goods
Wolf, Vojtěch ; Komrska, Martin (advisor) ; Slaný, Martin (referee)
This paper focuses on empirical analysis of selected relationships derived from the Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT). Special attention is paid to consumer durable goods. ABCT suggests that change in the rate of interest or credit availability induces change in relative consumption, production, and relative price of durable goods. This paper aims to verify whether the changes in these variables are consistent with Austrian theory. Several hypotheses are established and tested, using vector autoregression and Granger causality tests. The analysis is based on US time series data, covering the period between 1985 and 2013. The analysis failed to prove conclusively the validity of the hypotheses.
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The Austrian business cycle theory: empirical evidence
Komrska, Martin ; Potužák, Pavel (advisor) ; Zemplinerová, Alena (referee)
The aim of this diploma thesis is to empirically investigate the explanatory power of Austrian business cycle theory. My dataset consists of US quarterly time series within the period between 1971 and 2009. As regards the NBER classification, this dataset covers six complete business cycles, including the recent global financial crisis. Following Wainhouse (1984), Keeler (2001) and Bjerkenes et al. (2010) I use Granger causality as one of the primary tools of the analysis. Moreover I also add Impulse response functions to discover the direction of observed relationships. As regards my primary group of hypotheses I found significant empirical evidence for the connection between changes in interest rate and structure of production. The secondary group of hypotheses is less successful; however I found the very first empirical illustration of Garrison's version of ABCT.
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Applied quantitative methods of Austrian Business Cycle Theory
Kaláb, Jiří ; Svoboda, Miroslav (advisor) ; Janíčko, Martin (referee)
This paper analyzes the Austrian theory of business cycles. This theory describes the reasons that cause cyclical fluctuations in economic activity. Its foundations are built on the Austrian theory of capital. The main goal of this paper is to identify these reasons and construct a model based on them. This model attempts to capture the effect of explanatory variables on the structure of production according to Hayek's triangle. This is based on a sample of monthly U.S. data from the period 01/01/1977 to 04/01/2011. Data were tested using a linear regression model. Output from the model confirmed some of the variables as consistent with the Austrian theory of business cycles. However, there are many problems associated with applying this econometric model to the theory, whose leaders consistently opposed the introduction of mathematical methods in economic science.
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Anti-crisis policy of the Federal Reserve system in twenties and early thirties of the twentieth century
Šetele, Adam ; Tajovský, Ladislav (advisor) ; Szobi, Pavel (referee)
This bachelor thesis deals with the anti-crisis policy of the U.S. central bank, the Federal Reserve system (FED), during the twenties and early thirties of last century. Attention is directed primarily to two major crises that occurred during this period. It is a little known post-war Depression of 1920-21 and the Great Depression of 1929-33. Anti-crisis policy, which were used by a top U.S. monetary autority -- Federal reserve system to address these two crises were to each other in stark contrast. In the first case there were chosen restrictive and deflationary policies, while in the latter case there were applied an anti-crisis expansionary and inflationary policies. These different approaches have been also accompanied by a different course of the crisis. Based on analysis of anti-crisis policy of the Federal Reserve System in the early 20th century work shows that there is a causal relationship between anti-crisis policy of the central bank and the state of economic development and that this stabilization (anti-crisis policy) of Federal reserve system deepen economic contraction rather than help economic from them. The work is theoretically based on ideas of the austrian economic school and its business cycle theory.
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Forecast of the Future Development of the Current Business Crisis Using Tools of the Austrian School of Economics
Sehnalová, Tereza ; Svoboda, Miroslav (advisor) ; Mirvald, Michal (referee)
This paper is based on the theoretical framework given by the Austrian Business Cycle Theory. This theory explains clearly the causes, process and consequences of trade cycles that are inevitable parts of modern economies. Based on this framework, there was built a model trying to illustrate the impact of indicators standing behind the origin of business cycles on production structure of the USA examined on monthly data from years 1984 to 2009. The results of this model are conformable with predictions given by the Austrian Business Cycle Theory. Despite this, it is not possible to predict the future development of the US economy till the end of 2010 using this model, due to many problems that minimize relevance of such forecast. Nevertheless, it is possible to make prediction using the theory explained by the Austrian school of economics.
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Austrian Business Cycle Theory: The Explanation of Financial Crisis
Vlček, Tomáš ; Havel, Jan (advisor) ; Svoboda, Miroslav (referee)
This thesis is dedicated to clarification of the Austrian approach to the central bank policies, particularly in relation to production structure changes and disruption of the price coordination mechanism. Firstly, I will try to clarify the theoretical patterns, as formulated by the founders of this concept, which is known as the Business Cycle Theory, and then I confront the theoretical knowledge with real statistical data from the U.S. in recent years. The thesis should show, that the Business Cycle Theory can thanks to its complexity and logical structure fully reveal the real causes of the recent economic crisis and that even after decades since its first formulation it can be considered as actual and functional conception, which should be taken into account when deciding on monetary issues.
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Historie bankovnictví na českém území
Marková, Lenka ; Kollár, Miroslav (advisor) ; Havel, Jan (referee)
Předmětem mé bakalářské práce je diskuse nad škodlivostí monetárního jevu deflace. Na začátku práce objasňuji, jak se bankovnictví vyvíjelo od počátku vzniku peněz, přičemž důraz kladu na bankovní systém a monetární politiku Rakousko-Uherska a hlavně Československa, které se s deflací ve 20. a 30. letech 20. století potýkalo a jak zasáhly takové autority tehdejší republiky jakými byli Alois Rašín a Karel Engliš. V další části práce uvádím, jak se na deflaci dívá ekonomie hlavního proudu a proti ní rakouská škola i po-friedmanovská větev ekonomů. Nemohla bych opomenout ani názor prof. Vencovského, který se touto problematikou detailně zabýval. V závěru práce si skromně dovoluji shrnout problematiku deflace a její vliv na ekonomiku, zda je deflace ?zdravím?, či ?nemocí? ekonomiky.
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