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The impact of the COVID-19 crisis on bank credit risk management
Lukášková, Karolína ; Teplý, Petr (advisor) ; Jakubík, Petr (referee)
iv Abstract This diploma thesis examines the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the bank credit risk in the European Union. The analysis is performed using two sets of panel data. The first set contains data at the bank-level between 2012 and 2018 and is obtained from BankFocus batabase and the second set of data is obtained from the EBA Risk dashboard and contains data at the country-level between 2014 and 2020. Both datasets contain bank-specific variables and macroeconomic variables. We use the variables Cost of risk, Total capital ratio, Tier 1 ratio and NPE ratio as dependent variables. As representatives of the COVID-19 shock, we use the number of people infected with this disease, the number of deaths from this disease and the Stringency Index. We employ the GMM system for our analysis and test 5 hypotheses. We did not reject 3 hypotheses, namely that Cost of risk is a key determinant of credit risk and that the crisis caused by COVID-19 affects the variables Capitalo ratio and NPE ratio. We further concluded that the variables representing COVID-19 do not have a negative effect on credit risk, mainly due to the interventions of the ECB and the IASB. JEL Classification C12, C33, G01, G21 Keywords bank, COVID-19 crisis, credit risk management, Stringency index Title Author's e-mail Supervisor's e-mail...
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Credit risk stress testing of the Czech banking sector
Vachušková, Karolína ; Pečená, Magda (advisor) ; Švéda, Josef (referee)
This thesis aims to describe stress testing in the Czech banking sector focusing on the most significant banking risk, which is credit risk. The thesis examines the difference between regulatory and internal stress testing, compares their assumptions, outcome quality and usability. It deals with the regulation of stress tests, which banks must fulfil. Further, it uses the current Covid-19 crisis as a test of whether the adverse scenarios used are sufficiently severe to cover the risks for and impacts on the actual negative development of the economy. This analysis assesses the Czech banking sector's readiness and resilience and includes the reactions of banks and the Czech authorities to increasing risks.
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Vyhodnocení vlivu státních dluhopisů v portfoliích úvěrových institucí
Livarová, Monika
The focus of this thesis is to analyse the concentration of government bonds in portfolios of credit institutions in the Czech Republic, Austria and the Federal Republic of Germany in the period 2006-2015 and the resulting credit risk. In the theoretical part of the thesis a bond market and the credit institutions' motivation to hold government bonds is described. Also, the credit risk and the causes and the consequences of the nexus of credit institutions and sovereigns in the context of the European crisis is expounded. In the practical part of the thesis the government bond portfolio is broken down by issuer for the selected countries and then the portfolio credit risk is derived. The selected countries are compared with respect to the development of the share of the domestic government bonds held by credit institutions in their total assets and in the government debt of the country. Finally, a correlation between the share and the government debt (in total and to GDP) is determined.
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Hodnocení bonity klientů při získávání úvěru v bance
Šlapalová, Anežka
The diploma thesis is focused on the appreciation of clients' creditworthiness in obtaining loans at Komerční banka, a.s., which is one of the largest and most widely used banks in the Czech Republic. The work is divided into literary research and practical part. Literary research characterizes and explains the basic concepts of credit management and credit analysis. There are described different methods and models for assessing the creditworthiness of clients, which are further used in the practical part and are the basis for assessing the client's creditworthiness. The second part of the thesis analyzes Komerční banka, a.s., where its loan products are analyzed, and specific credit processes and credit analyzes are explained in model cases.
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Dopady metody tvorby a zúčtování opravných položek banky na její hospodaření
Pečinková, Lucie
The diploma thesis deals with the creation of loans provisions in banks. The need for adjustments is based on the existence of credit risk and this thesis presents techniques of credit risk measurement and applied credit risk indicators. Before calculating provisions, it is necessary to classify receivables, whose parameters are also discussed in the thesis. The practical part focuses on methods of calculating provisions. The method of coefficients, discounted cash flow method and statistical methods are compared. Markov model and gross roll rate model were selected from statistical methods. The findings were evaluated and recommendations were made based on the findings.
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The future of credit scoring modelling using advanced techniques
Čermáková, Jolana ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Geršl, Adam (referee)
Machine learning is becoming a part of everyday life and has an indisputable impact across large array of industries. In the financial industry, this impact lies particularly in predictive modelling. The goal of this thesis is to describe the basic principles of artificial intelligence and its subset, machine learning. The most widely used machine learning techniques are outlined both in a theoretical and a practical way. As a result, four models were assembled within the thesis. Results and limitations of each model were discussed and these models were also mutually compared based on their individual per- formance. The evaluation was executed on a real world dataset, provided by Home Credit company. Final performance of machine learning methods, measured by the KS and GINI metrics, was either very comparable or even worse than the performance of a traditional logistic regression. Still, the problem may lie in an insu cient dataset, in the improper data prepara- tion, or in inappropriately used algorithms, not necessarily in the models themselves.
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Credit Risk of P2P Lending on the Czech Market
Čermáková, Jolana ; Dědek, Oldřich (advisor) ; Čech, František (referee)
This thesis analyzes an emerging peer-to-peer lending industry, while intro- ducing its main features and risks, where the risk of default and its moder- ation gets the most attention. Uniquely provided data from the front Czech platform Zonky containing nearly 6 000 observations serve as a baseline for credit risk modeling. It has been investigated which variables have the largest effect on default on the Czech P2P market. The final model is used to predict the associated probability of default and to compute the credit score for potential borrowers using these online platforms. Results support the fact that education, age, way of living, expenses, marital and employment status, income and the number of children are significant variables when determining the risk of default. Many of these findings are in accordance with previous international papers published on this topic.
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Prevention of Risks in International Trade
Punčochářová, Hana ; Sato, Alexej (advisor) ; Ludvík, Jan (referee)
Doing business is always accompanied by risks. International trade usually brings new types of risk or at least increases the frequency and intensity of the current ones. The main objective of this thesis is to identify the risks that may arrise for Czech exporters in international operations and to present the possibilities of risk management (especially management of credit and country risk). The thesis is divided into three chapters. The first chapter provides a classification of risks. The second one describes phases of international business operations and provides a detailed explanation of selected instruments (bank guarantees, letters of credit, insurance, purchase of receivables etc.). Last chapter consists of two business cases inspired by contracts of Solar Turbines.
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Using Rating in Regulation Practice
Řehořová, Monika ; Blahová, Naďa (advisor) ; Metrah, Samy (referee)
This master thesis deals with the issue of using rating in the context of determining capital requirements. The focus is on using the Standardised Approach and the Internal Rating-Based Approach to calculate credit risk capital requirements. Different approaches to managing the risk and evaluating the capital adequacy. Criticism of rating agencies as well as the complexity of Internal Rating-Based Approach is taken into account. Furthermore, the thesis discusses the issue of responsibility of external rating agencies for their evaluations, and together with the issue of lacking competition. Various alternatives to external rating are discussed. The internal rating process is discussed in more detail along with the factors which affect rating evaluations of exposures to various entities. Subsequently, the thesis focuses on determining the rate of provision for impairment expected losses on receivables, and a possible impact of accepting IFRS 9 on capital adequacy.
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Analysis of the Creditworthiness of Vítkovice a.s.
Svatová, Ivana ; Cibulka, Jakub (advisor) ; Plíva, Rostislav (referee)
The aim of the bachelor thesis is to describe the methods used by the bank to determine the rating of client and to evaluate the creditworthiness of Vítkovice a.s. In the theoretical part of the thesis is defined credit risk and internal rating models of banks that are used in the assessment. Internal rating models vary from one bank to another. However, the basis for assessing the creditworthiness is the analysis of quantitative and qualitative indicators, which are explained in more detail in chapter three. The credit registers presented in chapter four also play an important role in assessing the client. In the practical part, the selected quantitative indicators are calculated. The results of the indicators are then compared with the sector. The conclusion of the work is a review of the company and a recommendation whether it is appropriate to provide the client with a loan.
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