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Deterring cyberthreats - The Baltic States and the search for a theory of cyberdeterrence
Herzog, Fabian ; Pili, Giangiuseppe (vedoucí práce) ; Butler, Eamonn (oponent) ; Střítecký, Vít (oponent)
This dissertation consists of three parts and has a twofold research interest. The research interest lies in finding a theory of cyberdeterrence as well as the pragmatic challenge of unconventional warfare at NATO's Eastern front and cyberattacks in general. The first part is a theoretical analysis considering the literature review on cyber, deterrence theory and their combination. The resulting identified crucial factors are incorporated in the game theory model of the second part of the thesis. The research question of the model is directed at the gap in the academic literature when a defender should retaliate after a cyberattack. The model predicts that conflict in cyber is dominated by offense not defence on the lower spectrum of intensity which is influenced by the factors impact and attribution. The higher the degree of impact and attribution of a cyberattack, the more useful becomes deterrence by punishment with a high retaliation. In the third part the model is tested against the case study of cyberattacks against Estonia in 2007. The test identifies adaptions and shortcomings of the theory of cyberdeterrence. Cyberattacks with lower impact are not deterrable with punishment because the defender is unable to portray credible threats of retaliation. This has implications for deterring...
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Between the Exploitation and Benefit: International and Non-governmental Organisations in Intelligence Operations
Satkauskaite, Migle ; Pili, Giangiuseppe (vedoucí práce) ; Reinsberg, Bernhard (oponent) ; Ludvík, Jan (oponent)
In some operations, national intelligence agencies decide to use International and Non- governmental organisations (INGOs) as a cover for intelligence gathering or covert action. Publicised cases of such operations show that while it can be effective in achieving intelligence goals, these operations might bring negative consequences to both actors. Using INGOs in intelligence action can break international law, be regarded as immoral or ethically questionable by society, damage the reputation of INGO and reduce public trust in the intelligence community. As a result, intelligence agencies should avoid taking advantage of INGOs. However, if it is unavoidable, intelligence agencies should put all the necessary efforts, that these cases would stay classified.
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Tracking the Flow of Military Assets and Logistics for OSINT: The Case of the Syrian Civil War
Sutea, Ionut ; Jackson, Peter (vedoucí práce) ; Pili, Giangiuseppe (oponent) ; Ludvík, Jan (oponent)
Tracking the Flow of Military Assets and Logistics for OSINT: The Case of the Syrian Civil War July 2019 2338035 17116325 25113386 Presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of International Master in Security, Intelligence & Strategic Studies Word Count: 20,971 Supervisor: Peter Jackson Date of Submission: July 25, 2019 Table of Contents 1. Introduction............................................................................................................... 1 2. Theoretical Background .......................................................................................... 2 2.1. Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT).............................................................................. 3 2.1.1. What Is OSINT and Why Is It Important?...................................................................... 3 2.1.2. How To Exploit OSINT?................................................................................................... 6 2.1.3 At OSINT's Edge: Challenges, Limitations and Ethics............................................... 15 2.2. Military Logistics......................................................................................................... 18 2.2.1. What Are Military...
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The cyber-transition of the electricity sector and V-4 energy cooperation
van Dam, Dorien ; Butler, Eamonn (vedoucí práce) ; Pili, Giangiuseppe (oponent) ; Špelda, Petr (oponent)
With our societies undergoing an energy transition which favours increased electrification over the use of fossil fuels, electric grid governance may in the future be of greater importance than traditional pipeline politics. Parallel to the energy transition, critical infrastructure is witnessing a process of digitalisation, opening up a range of new security threats as illustrated by the 2015 hack of the Ukrainian electricity grid. This research uses a socio- technical approach to highlight the relationship between technology and politics at the nexus of energy- and cybersecurity. By using the concept of imaginaries as an analytical framework, the effects of the cyber-transition in the electricity sector on V-4 energy cooperation are studied. Finally, this paper will argue that international political discourse surrounding the energy sector is still dominated by traditional energy security concerns, rather than incorporating newly emerging threats thereby emphasizing the role of politics over technology.
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Artificial Intelligence and Human Security: AI Strategy Analysis
Wilson, Elizabeth ; Butler, Eamonn (vedoucí práce) ; Pili, Giangiuseppe (oponent) ; Špelda, Petr (oponent)
The capabilities of Artificial Intelligence are growing quickly while the technology widely proliferates. Many risks and benefits are emerging as it becomes more powerful. This thesis aims to identify the set of risks and benefits emerging from AI that affect Human Security and the implications of how they are being acknowledged and addressed in government strategies. A definition of Human Security was chosen after a review of the literature. Due to its individual country agnosticism and useful split into 7 dimensions (Economic, Food, Health, Environmental, Personal, Community, and Political Security) the 1994 UN Human Development report's definition was chosen. Inductive document analysis was performed using the 7 dimensions of Human Security as an analytical framework. Twenty-four documents from 18 different governments were identified, and then keyword analysis was implemented on each to highlight their relevancy to each of the 7 dimensions. This allowed for the creation of a binary set of data showing the coverage of those 7 dimensions in each document and the overall coverage of each dimension across all documents. The relevancies that were identified were then qualitatively and quantitatively analysed by addressing the trends seen across the documents and each document's relevancy to the 7...
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A Target-Centric Intelligence: How Efficient is Cooperation Between the Local Police Departments and the FIU within the Finnish AML/CTF model?
Tjufjakov, Oleg ; Van Puyvelde, Damien (vedoucí práce) ; Pili, Giangiuseppe (oponent) ; Kučera, Tomáš (oponent)
This research intends to address the issues of cooperation and intelligence sharing between the national authorities within the network of Anti-Money Laundering and Counter-Terrorist Financing regime. In this way, it is aimed to better understand and analyse the underlying issues behind the gaps in effective operational exchange of financial intelligence information within the wider network of national security structures. Therefore, this work contributes to a highly varying and inter-disciplinary academic field of studies on AML/CTF but also wider to the researches on security, terrorism and crime prevention. The academic debates on the methods of measurement of effectiveness of the AML/CFT models has developed a range of different perspectives, which have certain constraints and limitation for analysis. The traditional approach of evaluation relies heavily on the outcome-orientation and, therefore, is not always able to identify the weaknesses on the operational level and related processes. This approach is especially in use in the contemporary official evaluations and assessments of AML/CTF regimes. In this way, this dissertation applies a theoretical framework of a "target-centric" intelligence and tries to go deeper into the intelligence sharing processes to supplement the recent FATF analysis...
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The Effects of NATO Integration Process on the Military Professionalism of the Georgian Defence Forces
Zabakhidze, Rusudan ; Kučera, Tomáš (vedoucí práce) ; Florea, Adrian (oponent) ; Pili, Giangiuseppe (oponent)
The Effects of NATO Integration Process on the Military Professionalism of the Georgian Defence Forces July 2019 2338285z 17116431 63432624 Presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of International Master in Security, Intelligence and Strategic Studies Word Count: 21 387 Supervisor: Dr Tomáš Kučera Date of Submission: 26 July 2019 2 Acknowledgements I would like to express my sincere gratitude to whole IMSISS cohort of 2017-2019: students, academic staff and coordinators who made this research possible by providing inspiration, confidence, resources, and guidance throughout the process. I am thankful to my supervisor Dr Tomáš Kučera whose patience and mentorship was detrimental to achieve the research goals. I am extremely grateful to those friends (May the judgement be yours) who helped me to stay calm in times of research obstacles by providing comfort, encouragement, and advice to move forward. I would also like to thank all the research participants whose voluntary willingness to enrich my study with their expertise and knowledge was key to get invaluable insights into the Georgian defence sector. After all, I thank me for believing me, for doing this hard work and never quitting (Broadus, also known as Snoop Dogg, 2019). I sincerely hope to adhere to the trust and expectations...
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