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Which Factors Drive Growth of Demand for Passenger Air Travelling?
Ondrejová, Zuzana ; Chytilová, Helena (advisor) ; Vozárová, Pavla (referee)
Is GDP per capita one of the main drivers affecting demand for passenger air travelling? Based on the time series analysis conducted for North American and Middle Eastern region, we have not rejected hypothesis about positive impact of GDP per capita on demand for air travelling. The thesis also analyzes whether the effects observed are weaker for more developed and more saturated markets. The second hypothesis was rejected, as we have found that the effect of the GDP per capita was on average 10% stronger for the North American region than for the Middle Eastern region. Moreover, we have found that for both regions oil prices are the important driver of the passenger air travel demand.
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Influence of the amount of real expenditures from Structural funds od EU on the number of patent applications filed by Czech applicants
Lehejčková, Lucie ; Stroukal, Dominik (advisor) ; Vozárová, Pavla (referee)
Abstract The importance of investments in R&D was proved in several papers. These investments can influence innovative activity, which in turn, can spurs economic growth. Therefore, it was chosen to analyze the relation between amount of real expenditures of Structural funds of EU intended to R&D acitivities in CR and innovative activities, measured by number of submitted national patent applications by czech applicants in this diploma thesis. There are observed a direction of the impact, its approximate size and signifikance within several variations of models and chosen time lags. There is also compared the influence of real expenditures from EU funds and from czech resources. The results of this thesis shows, that there exists a positive relation between the two major variables, real expenditures from EU resources and number of submitted national patent applications in CR. It was also found out, that the size of the impact is not large, nonetheless, this impact was significant in a few cases. Results also confirm, that the impact of the expenditures is lagged by some time. Finally, the real expenditures of CR have the opposite direction of the impact and they are significant in all estimates.
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Testování kvality predikcí: vyhodnocení modelu g3
Tkáčik, Marcel ; Vozárová, Pavla (advisor) ; Janíčko, Martin (referee)
Recent developments of New Keynesian models attracted many central banks to develop their own DSGE models for policy analysis and forecasting. The aim of this study is to evaluate the quality of the predictions made by the Czech National Bank which developed its own DSGE model and use it as the core forecasting model from July 2008. The quality of the predictions has been evaluted by comparing it with the Ministry of Finance of the Czech Republic and two commercial banks (Česká spořitelna and Komerční banka). Using the econometrical tests for the structural break and time series analysis, it has been concluded that the Czech National Bank experienced significant improvement in its prediction quality when employing the DSGE model, and surpassed the other three institutions. This study suggests that a well-specified DSGE model may enhance the prediction quality of key macroeconomic indicators compared to non-structural models and expert judgment.
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The Influence of Weather and Calendar Cycles on Trading Volumes at World Stock Exchanges
Kovaľová, Andrea ; Vozárová, Pavla (advisor) ; Slaný, Martin (referee)
Studies investigating stock-exchange anomalies -- mainly with respect to returns and volatility -- have been emerging in recent years and decades. This work explores whether weather conditions, days of the week, length of daylight, seasonal affective disorder, holidays, and lunar phase affect trading volume. Segmented into two parts, the work primarily analyses time-series cross-sectional data covering 12 major stock exchanges and spanning from January 2010 to March 2015. The other part of the work focuses on a detailed analysis of the New York Stock Exchange using only time-series data obtained for the time period from January 2001 to December 2009. Additionally, this period is further split to two time spans as the NYSE fundamentally changed its trading system during the period in question. We find strong evidence of the Monday effect -- manifested in low trading volume on Mondays -- recognizable in the time-series cross-sectional part of the analysis, as well as in the time-series part. Other aforementioned anomalies either do not affect the trading volume significantly or their effect is statistically significant only in one of the two parts of the analysis.
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Online trends and sentiment and their possible application in stock market prediction
Stehno, Josef ; Vozárová, Pavla (advisor) ; Čermáková, Klára (referee)
The goal of this thesis is to assess information contained in internet user's activity. I focus on two sources of data: Google Trends and sentiment contained in StockTwits posts. For both of them I examine the correlation of its percentage changes and percentage changes of variables describing the stock market development. Econometric testing consists of three phases, first is Least Squares Method, then ARIMA model, and lastly testing for Granger Causality. Conclusions are that activity of internet users does contain valuable information. The correlations are strongest for firms operating in IT business or generally focusing on modern technologies. Strong correlation is between trade volume or market volatility and Google Trends, whereas sentiment in post on StockTwits is statistically significant for stock price development.
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The influence of publicized events on price of football teams
Matoušek, Roman ; Stroukal, Dominik (advisor) ; Vozárová, Pavla (referee)
This thesis analyzes the influence of publicized events on stock price of football teams. For this, event study method and regression model was used. Publicized events were significant win in competitions or corruption scandal in Italian football. This thesis found out, that some events influence investor behavior, for example corruption scandal in Italian football or FC Porto win in Champions league final. Efficient market hypothesis was not disprove. Furthermore, it was found that fans -- investors respond to the results of his team, especially surprising wins and goal difference. Higher volume of stocks is traded in the season than out of season.
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Stává se čínská politika jednoho dítěte zbytečnou?
Cestr, Ondřej ; Vozárová, Pavla (advisor) ; Špecián, Petr (referee)
Contemporary China is facing the threat of rapidly aging population. Increasing portion of the economically inactive part of the population is already putting a significant strain on the Chinese pension system. Health care and social security system are still underdeveloped and also unprepared for this trend. As an attempt to reduce this issue by revitalizing the low birth rate, Chinese one-child policy underwent a significant relaxation in 2007. The expected acceleration of the birth rate however did not occur. Using the panel data from 31 regions of China between the period 2001 and 2013, I have analyzed this issue. My thesis provides the evidence, that one-child policy is not the exclusive culprit behind the continued trend of below-replacement fertility levels. Socioeconomic environment in China underwent a rapid transformation during the past 37 years. One of the socioeconomic factors newly affecting the Chinese birth rate level is the wealth. This is manifested by the inverse relationship between the wealth and fertility and it is known as the demographic-economic paradox. This thesis proves the presence of this phenomenon across the regions of China. It also demonstrates that it could have at least partly counterweighted the effect, which one-child policy easing had on birth rate in 2007. Since the one-child policy has lost significant part of its normative power to other factors affecting the birth rate, I am arguing it is the sign, that one-child policy is slowly becoming redundant on its own.
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Vliv počtu soudců na výstup soudního systému
Jonáš, Václav ; Dušek, Libor (advisor) ; Vozárová, Pavla (referee)
The thesis examines the effect of the number of judges on court output in the Czech Republic. It is based on the theory of a rational judge and the hypothesis that after the appointment of new judges, the incumbent judges face lower caseload pressure and they can decrease their effort. It follows that the change in the court output is very small or non-existent. I develop a model that specifies court output as a function of judicial staffing, caseload and other variables. I employ OLS, FE and 2SLS estimation methods. The estimation results suggest that the number of judges does not affect court output in the case of district courts. In the case of regional courts, a 10% growth in the number of judges leads approximately to a 5% growth in the number of resolved cases. Furthermore, estimates suggest that all courts strongly react on changes in the caseload. I also show that the quantity-quality trade-off is not present at courts in the Czech Republic. The thesis contributes to thin empirical literature on the effect of judicial staffing on court output mainly by controlling for the case difficulty and by using panel data from the Czech Republic.
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