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Inflation Reports and Models: How Well Do Central Banks Really Write?
Bulíř, Aleš ; Hurník, Jaromír ; Šmídková, Kateřina
We offer a novel methodology for assessing the quality of inflation reports. In contrast to the existing literature, which mostly evaluates the formal quality of these reports, we evaluate their economic content by comparing inflation factors reported by the central banks with ex-post model-identified factors. Regarding the former, we use verbal analysis and coding of in flation reports to describe inflation factors communicated by central banks in real time. Regarding the latter, we use reduced - form, new Keynesian models and revised data to approximate the true inflation factors. Positive correlations indicate that the r eported inflation factors were similar to the true, model-identified ones and hence mark high-quality inflation reports. Although central bank reports on average identify inflation factors correctly, the degree of forward-looking reporting varies across fa ctors, time, and countries.
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Analysis of monetary strategy CNB from 1989 to the present
Jindová, Petra ; Zeman, Karel (advisor) ; Jílek, Josef (referee)
The target of this bachelor thesis is to analyze monetary strategy of Czech national bank since 1989 to the present, deal with decisions of central bank in monetary policy in important periods. This theme is selected with regard on current financial situation in European Union and independence of Czech national bank in deciding about monetary policy. In theoretical part of this thesis will be described how monetary instruments works and what functions and targets have monetary policy of Czech national bank. In practical part will be analyzed progress of central bank from its beginning to the present. The main focus will be placed on break-even periods for our banking sector. The result of this analysis will evaluation of success Czech national bank's monetary targets since 1989 and comparison of positives and negatives with entry to European Monetary Union.
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Econometric analysis of transmission mechanism in CZ
Plechatá, Zuzana ; Hušek, Roman (advisor) ; Formánek, Tomáš (referee)
This diploma thesis presents results of analysis of monetary policy transmission mechanism in the Czech Republic employing the vector autoregressive (VAR) models. The responsible authority for monetary policy is Czech National Bank that has been using the inflation targeting regime to conduct its monetary policy since 1998. The inflation rate changes, i.e. the changes in repo rate represent a monetary tool for steering actual inflation rate towards the projected or "target" inflation rate. The linear correlation between 2 weeks repo rate and 1 month PRIBOR rate is confirmed. The transmission mechanism is examined within the VAR framework and the relationships between the 1 month PRIBOR rate, gross domestic product and inflation rate are studied. The VAR model including 1 lag is considered as the best performing model. The relationships among variables are analysed by related approaches -- Granger causality, impulse response functions and cointegration. The ability of model to create forecasts is assessed and the ex ante forecasts are produced for one-year horizon. The effects of alternative monetary policies are the subject of scenario analysis.
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Explanatory power of inflation forecasts and their effect on the monetary policy of inflation targeting
Frýbová, Kateřina ; Pfeifer, Lukáš (advisor) ; Řežábek, Pavel (referee)
The goal of this work is to prove poor explanatory power of inflation forecasts, which monetary policy regime of inflation targeting depends on. Actual inflation is significantly different from its forecast especially during unstable periods of economic cycle. The paper compares inflation forecasts and actual inflation in the Czech Republic, Switzerland, the United States and Great Britain from 1999 to 2011. Central banks use similar inflation targets and monetary policy regime in selected countries, however there are significant differences among them. The results for all the countries are almost identical despite these local specifics. The explanatory power (especially conditional forecasts) was found to be minimal. This hypothesis is proved by the regression analysis of actual inflation and inflation forecasts.
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Inflation targeting- comparison of realization in Slovak and Czech Republic
Burdeláková, Ingrida ; Koderová, Jitka (advisor) ; Vránková, Martina (referee)
This thesis deals with the realization of inflation targeting in the Slovak and the Czech Republic, and compares successfulness in fulfilling of inflation target. It is divided into three chapters. The first chapter characterizes monetary policy in general and two transmission mechanisms used in both countries. The next chapter is concerned with the practical application of monetary transmission mechanism after the monetary separation. Problems connected with the realization of this monetary policy regime that led to the change in the transmission mechanism in both central banks are also mentioned. In the last chapter there is the comparison of conditions in Slovakia and the Czech Republic during the implementation and application inflation targeting. We also compare trend in the actual and target inflation rate, and describe changes in the key interest rates of both national banks as a result of it.
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The Consumer Price Index and it´s appropriateness for measure of inflation
Trčová, Marie ; Pfeifer, Lukáš (advisor) ; Řežábek, Pavel (referee)
The target of this bachelor's thesis is comparison of current measurement of inflation, a measurement by consumer price index, with alternative attitudes of measuring of inflation including an identification of their vallue added. Nowadays the maintenance of a stable inflation rate is one of the dominant targets of all central banks in developed countries. The central banks use various instruments of monetary policy to ensure this target. One of the regime of monetary policy that central banks use the most is inflation targeting, more precisely targeting of consumer price index. Unfortunately, this price index carries an amount of disadvantages. At first, I mention predominant discussion about technical imperfections that are caused by the method of it's calculation. Then I focus on monetary - political imperfections of the consumer price index that are caused by the fact that this index ilustrates development of only relatively stable consumer prices, so it's reactions on changes of monetary policy are very weak. After that I carry out an comparative analysis of representative alternative attitudes of measurement of inflation, including a comparison of developement of inflation rate according to these attitudes in USA in last few years.
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Economic research bulletin (2004, No.1)
Česká národní banka
This issue of the CNB Research Bulletin begins with an outline of the forecasting model currently used by the CNB, including efforts aimed at its extension (Jaromír Beneš, Tibor Hlédik and David Vávra). Kateřina Šmídková goes on to present various methods of dealing with forecast uncertainty. Michal Skořepa then discusses the ways central banks’ future interest rates can be incorporated in their projections of future economic developments. And finally, Viktor Kotlán evaluates the relevance of using simple indicators, such as the yield curve, in the process of inflation targeting.
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Foreign exchange interventions under inflation targeting: the Czech experience
Holub, Tomáš
This paper discusses the role of foreign exchange interventions in the inflation-targeting regime, focusing on the Czech experience since 1998. It proposes criteria for assessing whether the interventions are consistent with the inflation targeting. It is also stressed that the literature on managed floating usually ignores the difficulty in defining clear procedural rules for the interventions.
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Targeting inflation under uncertainty: policy makers's perspective
Šmídková, Kateřina
Reflecting the further progress of the methodological debate inside the CNB, this paper aims to provide suggestions to policy makers as to which methods could be used to assess uncertainty during the monetary policy decision process. Suggestions for each stage of the process are summarised in the final chapter. These take into account the findings of surveys of three very distinct sources – the economic literature on monetary policy under uncertainty, the managerial literature on decision analysis, and the real-life strategies of five central banks.
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