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Effect of CNB's Monetary Intervention on Czech Exports to Germany
Krejčí, Tadeáš ; Šopov, Boril (advisor) ; Svačina, David (referee)
The primary interest of the thesis consists in impact of the Czech National Bank's monetary intervention on the volumes of Czech exports to Germany. To determine the significance of the potential casual effect, a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model is constructed based on economic introspection and previous findings of other authors, to be subsequently estimated using the lucid method of least squares. Based on this procedure, we find evidence supporting the positive causal effect at hand. The results also confirm the presence of a structural break into periods before and after the initiation of controlled float regime. Furthermore, indications of casual effects are encountered in cases of other macroeconomic variables, such as German exports, supporting the reasoning in earlier works relating to this topic. JEL Classification E50, E51, E58, C51, C53 Keywords ForEx intervention, exports determination factors, foreign reserves, monetary policy Author's e-mail teddy.krejci@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail boril.sopov@gmail.com
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Comparison of Factors Determining Czech Exports in Different Aggregations: Analysis by means of an Adjusted Gravity Model
Smotlachová, Eva ; Benáček, Vladimír (advisor) ; Bobková, Božena (referee)
The aim of the thesis is to estimate determinants of Czech export. The key novelty of the research consists in estimating export flows at three different levels of aggregation (total, machinery, automobiles) and a subsequent comparison of results. An augmented gravity model is implemented for the empirical research and estimated with the use of Ordinary least squares (including time or country dummies) and Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimators. Consequently, we propose the comparison based on the Poisson estimates due to incontestable weaknesses of the OLS estimator. Besides, we emphasize the importance of identifying the panel data structure, as we have obtained different results under the two structures (time series and cross-sectional). The predicted models reveal a substantial impact of home and partner's GDP, distance and the European Union. Total and machinery export seem to follow same tendencies, whereas the development of Czech automobile export differs and evolves on an idiosyncratic path. Therefore, it does not coincide with a path expected by trade theories based on the assumption of perfect competitive markets.
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Impact of increasing returns to scale and imperfect competition on international trade in automotive industry: Czech republic - Germany intra-industry trade
Tomo, Ján ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Vukelić, Tatjana (referee)
This paper analyzes the impact of increasing returns to scale and imperfect competition in international trade with a focus on the automotive industry and trade between the Czech Republic and Germany in this sector . Because increasing returns to scale can not exist in perfect competition, they promote the differentiation of products and manufacturers attempt to differentiate their products from the others and get their share in international trade. This gives rise to intra-industry trade, where countries trade in similar goods that may differ either in quality or in completely different characteristics. These into detail analyzed theoretical bases I try to apply to a case study of mutual intra-industry trade between Czech Republic and Germany with a focus on the automotive industry, which makes up about a quarter of the Czech Republic industrial output, accounts for approximately ten percent of the gross domestic product, while exports of road vehicles represent about 17% of total exports. Germany as a major trading partner of the Czech Republic and the world's number one superpower in exports of machinery and transport equipment, imports a substantial part of the production of the Czech automotive industry and also exports its own products of the industry to the Czech Republic. This work aims to analyze...
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Gravity Models Enlarged by Institutional Factors
Benešová, Šárka ; Benáček, Vladimír (advisor) ; Babin, Adrian (referee)
This thesis focuses on the gravity model of international trade that is enlarged by institutional factors. The aim is to concentrate on behaviour of Swiss exporter, based on cross-sectional and time series panel dataset. Swiss former foreign trade is analysed for this purpose. Afterwards, institutional factors are discussed in the first part of the thesis, how they can influence international trade and how they are affected by liberalisation. Further, the gravity model of international trade and development of the model is introduced. Second part of the thesis concentrates on the estimation of the gravity model for Swiss export by fixed and random effects. It was found out that institutional factors have impact on Swiss exports, especially from the static perspective while the subjects between countries are discriminated, which is modelled using cross-sectional data specification. The role of institutions substantially decreases in dynamic point of view.
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Macroeconomic factors and stock returns: Evidence from three Central and East European countries
Tung, Christopher ; Novák, Jiří (advisor) ; Dědek, Oldřich (referee)
This dissertation deals with the links between stock market returns and foreign exchange rates, industrial production and exports to Germany in three Central and East European countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland). The main questions addressed are: "Do macroeconomic factors related to foreign exchange rates and industrial production affect stock market returns in the Visegrad-3? And what is the impact of exports to Germany on those stock returns?" This analysis makes use of panel-data and the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) to produce results. Firstly, foreign exchange rates are found to have a negative effect on stock returns. However the divergence in currency returns between the three countries means that the overall effect may be due to some factors that are not accounted for in this analysis. Secondly, there is a positive, but lagged, association between industrial production and stock returns. Thirdly, exports to Germany from the region are also found to have a positive impact on the stock returns of the Visegrad-3. Finally, there is divergence among the three countries with respect to the relationship between the macroeconomic factors and stock returns. Poland and Hungary are seen to exert a significant amount of influence over the region's stock markets.
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The effect of european economic integration on international trade
Tománek, Ondřej ; Dlouhá, Zuzana (advisor) ; Čermáková, Klára (referee)
This bachelor thesis aims to economic integration of Europe. In the first part, it focuses on issues of stages of economic integration. The second part is dedicated to Europen Monetary union, its advantages and disadvantages. The next part is dealing with history and development of EU, CEFTA, EFTA, BAFTA. In final part, we use gravity model of international trade to analyze influence of each mentioned integrated group. Panel dataset consists of 27 776 observations of 23 years (1993-2015). Our results are consistent with other researchers, that are dealing with this issues. But some differences have been found. Preferential trading areas increases international trade, but the EMU coefficient is negative. Later on, we compare calculated potential exports of the czech republic to real exports to neighboring countries.
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Hospodářské vztahy mezi Čínou a Spojenými Státy Americkými
Gjochi, Marigona ; Žamberský, Pavel (advisor) ; Taušer, Josef (referee)
The master thesis emphasizes the economic relations between China and the United States. It gives an overview and theoretical background support on the significance of contemporary the economic relations between countries in today`s globalized era. Secondly, it analyzes how the theoretical background of economic and trade relations affect the empirical case study of the economic relations between China and the USA. The goal is to show how the economic and trade relations between China and the United States influence each other`s economies and what is the effect of such relations on the economic performance of both countries. More precisely, in order to answer the question above, the master thesis deals with complex analysis in regard of historical perspective concerning the economic relations between these countries, their ongoing cooperation in terms of balance of payments, the current and potential issues what both countries face and the existing challenges for the future. In order to complete the analysis and answer the research question, list of various sources will be used, starting from academic journals, books, literature reviews, reports from the World Trade Organization (hereafter WTO), reports from the respective countries on their economic progress, data available from the ministries of trade of respective countries and other sources related to the analysis of the contemporary economic and trade relations between the countries participating in the global economy.
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Russian Federation and its position on the global natural gas market
Dlouhý, Petr ; Müller, Štěpán (advisor) ; Taušer, Josef (referee)
The bachelor work deals with the world gas market and its development since 2000 focusing on the Russian Federation's standings on this market. The analysis of the role of Russia in the world trade in natural gas is based on a set of data containing world reserves, production and consumption volumes information as well as the main trade flows among the major exporters and importers of this commodity. Very important part of the analysis is mapping of the Russian gas sector and its corporate and political background. The so called shale revolution is also taken into account. Shale gas is about to have an impact on some of the world's commodity markets. The main goal of this work is to assess the position of the Russian Federation on gas market between 2000 and 2012 and then to predict how much and under which circumstances may the position of this country on the gas market shift.
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The Impacts of the Global Economic Crisis on Serbia
Lazić, Aleksandra ; Žamberský, Pavel (advisor) ; Janković, Vukica (referee)
The aim of this work is to describe and analyze the state of Serbian economy before and during the global economic crisis and evaluate its impacts on the economy of Serbia in terms of different macroeconomic variables. It particularly focuses on the impact of the crisis on the financial sector, Serbian dinar exchange rate, foreign debt, exports, foreign direct investments and unemployment. The work deals further with the anti-crisis measures of the Serbian government and the National Bank of Serbia, which has been taken and their effectiveness. Finally, the current situation of Serbian economy is portrayed and possible solutions for the crisis are proposed.
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The Prospect of Economic Relations between the Czech Republic and Mongolia
Oberfalzer, Jan ; Jiránková, Martina (advisor) ; Pavlík, Petr (referee)
The aim o this thesis is to determine whether there is a promising prospect of mutual economic relations between the Czech Republic and Mongolia, to analyze the Mongolian economy and to highlight potential possibilities and sectors that could represent a suitable opportunity for the Czech investors to do business in this region. The first part characterizes geographic, climatic, demographic, political and historical profile of Mongolia. The second part analyzes the Mongolian economy as a whole, its structure, foreign trade and foreign direct investments. In the third part is mapped position of Mongolia in Asia, Mongolian relations with neighboring states and foreign policy. The fourth part deals with the evaluation of economic relations between the Czech Republic and Mongolia, their history, present and prospects for the future.
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