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Evaluation of Effects of "Cash for Clunkers"-like programs on car markets and macroeconomic situation
Fiebig, Florian ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Červinka, Michal (referee)
Bachelor's Thesis Proposal Institute of Economic Studies Faculty of Social Sciences Charles University in Prague Author Florian Fiebig Supervisor Mgr. Ing. Vilém Semerák PhD. Proposed topic: The Impact of German policy, cash for clunkers, on the Czech market in regards to price level and output. Topic characteristics After the financial crisis in 2007-08, governments all over the world tried using several policies in order to promote growth and stability for their economies. On July 1, 2009, the USA launched its policy "Car Allowance Rebate System (CARS)", commonly known as "Cash for clunkers." It was a program designed to boost car sales, by giving the US residents an economic incentive swap their old and economic inefficient cars for brand new models that are more fuel efficient as well as produce less CO2. In the same year, Germany tried to promote growth and stability using the same policy/program. However, this policy did not just had an impact on the German economy, but its neighbors as well. In addition to that, it is interesting to find out if this policy was beneficial to implement or rather harming the economy even further. Although several papers conducted research on the effects of the cash-for-clunkers policy, I will focus on the effects that the German policy had on the Czech economy with...
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The time-frequency relationship between spot and futures prices of crude oil
Tran Quang, Tuan ; Baruník, Jozef (advisor) ; Červinka, Michal (referee)
This thesis investigates the relationship between daily spot and futures prices for maturities of one, two, three and four months of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil. The data cover period January 1987-April 2015. Based on economic theory, the futures prices should be closely related to the spot price, which - in the case of crude oil market - this thesis analyses using wavelet-based approach. Main contributions of this thesis are findings in the field of time-frequency relationship of spot-futures prices of crude oil, where an alternative methodology - wavelet transformation - is used. The usage of this advanced method is also an additional contribution of this thesis because it allows us to rigorously study how co-movement (relationship) differs across frequencies/scales and time. In this thesis wavelet Coherence, wavelet bivariate correlation and relatively new method wavelet band spectral regression (WBLS) are used. This thesis brings 4 main findings. First, relationship between Futures and spot prices of crude oil is strong in all time-periods (frequencies/scales), which supports economic theory. Second and In contrary to the first finding, in the gasoline spot-futures market, we find that the relationship is strong mainly in higher scales (lower frequencies) while in lower scales (higher...
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The Inflation-Output Variability Relationship in the CEE countries: A Bivariate GARCH Model
Kubovič, Jozef ; Čech, František (advisor) ; Červinka, Michal (referee)
This thesis examines the output-variability relationship and causal relationships among the inflation, the output growth and their uncertainties for the Central and Eastern European region during the period of time that covers the economic crisis of 2008. We apply the bivariate GARCH(1,1) model with the constant conditional correlation covariance matrix to obtain conditional variances that proxy the two uncertainties and use Granger causality test to determine the causal effects among four variables. We come up with a number of interesting results. First, we did not find statistical evidence neither for the inflation-output variability relationship nor for the Phillips curve. Second, we uncovered support for the positive causal effect of the inflation on its uncertainty and negative causal effect for the reverse direction. Additionally, we also found some support for the indirect negative causal effect of the inflation on the output growth. These results support the policy of low and stable inflation in the countries. Finally, we showed that crisis has a significant impact on the results, changing the behaviour of conditional variances and causal effects among the variables. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Generalized Nash Equilibrium Problems in Economics
Kratochvíl, Maxim ; Červinka, Michal (advisor) ; Adam, Tomáš (referee)
The aim of the thesis is to provide basic overview of term called Gener- alized Nash Equilibrium Problem (GNEP), mainly to the audience with economic education. Given term is the generalization of famous concept coming from Game theory called Nash Equilibrium Problem (NEP). Thesis describes basic properties of GNEP, illuminates main differences between NEP and GNEP and provides examples of both models. Thesis discuss hy- pothesis that there might exist economic models that could be advanced or solved by GNEP. One example of such economic model is presented to support given hypothesis. Keywords Generalized Nash Equilibrium Problems, abstract economy, social equilib- rium problem, pseudo-game, application.
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Google Econometrics: An Application to the Czech Republic
Platil, Lukáš ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Červinka, Michal (referee)
This thesis examines the applicability of Google Econometrics - the use of search volume data of particular queries as explanatory variables in time se- ries modeling - in the case of the Czech Republic. We analyze the contribu- tion of Google data by comparing out-of-sample nowcasting performance and in-sample fit with control variables in three related areas: using an auto- regressive model for unemployment, vector autoregression and logit models for GDP and household consumption, and Granger causality test for consum- er confidence. The improvement in quality of unemployment nowcasting is modest but statistically significant; sentiment index based on Google queries shows reciprocal relationship with the official Consumer Confidence Indicator, and it also provides superior nowcasts for household consumption as well as in- sample fit in logit models; its performance in GDP nowcasting is average among control variables. These conclusions proved stable also on an extended dataset. In overall, the results suggest that Google Econometrics is applicable also to the Czech Republic, despite the fact that the internet penetration rate and Google popularity was lower over the analyzed period compared with developed economies where these methods were usually tested. In the future, Google data may be used...
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The role of bank management in the European banks' stability during the global financial crisis 2007-2008
Melnychuk, Olena ; Brushko, Iuliia (advisor) ; Červinka, Michal (referee)
During the crisis of 2007-2008, many banks had to improve their management because their previous models could not cope with the increase in the number of defaults on mortgage loans and new risks produced by credit derivatives. The goal of this study is to define what factors were the most significant determinants of the stability of large banks of Europe during the crisis of 2007-2008. This study concentrates mostly on the indicators of the management of loan portfolio in major banks of Europe. For this purpose, the thesis uses a balanced panel data of 69 banks in 18 largest European countries during 2006-2009. Furthermore, from the results of tests on the significance of used variables, the model that evaluates the distance from the insolvency for banks is constructed.
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Spatial agent-based models of common pool resources
Vach, Dominik ; Gregor, Martin (advisor) ; Červinka, Michal (referee)
This thesis examines the application of the spatial aspect applied in the com- petitive models in the context of the natural resource economics. At first, the spatial models are thoroughly derived in one dimension. Then also their general properties such as the choice of the agents' location or their payoff function are examined. These properties are investigated for various distri- butions of the resource, and therefore they depend also on their parameters. The Nash equilibrium and local stability conditions are derived for the basic setups. In the second part, these competitive models are numerically tested also in a two-dimensional space. One of the results also suggests, that in the setup where the players have perfect information, the beginning player is not necessarily always better off than the second player. Throughout the entire thesis it is also comprehensively examined whether the existence of corners of the strategy space has an impact on the existence of the competition which was successfully demonstrated on several cases. JEL Classification Q20, Q22, C62, C68, C72 Keywords spatial models, natural resource exploitation, Nash equilibrium, fishery, computer simulations Author's e-mail vach.dominik@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail martin.gregor@fsv.cuni.cz 1
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Walras equilibria and emission allowances
Kouřílek, Matěj ; Červinka, Michal (advisor) ; Chytilová, Julie (referee)
Global efforts to prevent climate change has been a catalyst for the emergence of many innovative ideas to mitigate this phenomenon. One of them was an introduction of emission markets where polluters share aggregate quantity of so-called pollution permits, e.g., the European Union emission trading system. This work analyses the behaviour of firms and a relation between the European Union Allowances quantity and their price on the Czech market. Furthermore, possible consequences of the EU emission trading system policy on the Czech emission and energy market are analyzed. To do so, we develop equilibrium model which uses an innovative concept of the Cournot-Nash-Walras equilibrium. The model estimates 25 and 14 percent increase in emission allowances price between years 2014-2015, and 2014-2020, respectively. We also find that non-innovating firm can lose significant market share.
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Income Elasticity of Water Demand: A Meta-Analysis
Vlach, Tomáš ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Červinka, Michal (referee)
If policymakers address water scarcity with the demand-oriented approach, the income elasticity of water demand is of pivotal importance. Its estimates, however, differ considerably. We collect 307 estimates of the income elasticity of water demand reported in 62 studies, codify 31 variables describing the estimation design, and employ Bayesian model averaging to address model uncertainty inherent to any meta-analysis. The studies were published between 1972 and 2015, which means that this meta-analysis covers a longer period of time than two previous meta-analyses on this topic combined. Our results suggest that income elasticity estimates for developed countries do not significantly differ from income elasticity estimates for developing countries and that different estimation techniques do not systematically produce different values of the income elasticity of water demand. We find evidence of publication selection bias in the literature on the income elasticity of water demand with the use of both graphical and regression analysis. We correct the estimates for publication selection bias and estimate the true effect beyond bias, which reaches approximately 0.2. 1
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Understanding Information Asymmetries through Mechanism Design
Albert, Branislav ; Červinka, Michal (advisor) ; Adam, Tomáš (referee)
This thesis serves as an introduction and overview of the broad and closely related fields of mechanism design, contract theory, and information economics. Each chapter is intended to provide a self-contained guide to the particular area of application -- examples include adverse selection, moral hazard, and auctions. The reader should benefit from the thesis in two ways: by understanding the general notions of the revelation principle, incentive compatibility, and individual rationality from the mechanism design theory as well as by examining the particular information asymmetry models in the individual areas. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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