Original title: Modeling Cambodia
Authors: Cincibuch, M. ; Kejak, Michal ; Vávra, D. ; Auda, O. ; Aslanyan, Gurgen ; Bečičková, H. ; Daniš, P. ; Hřebíček, H. ; Janjgava, Batlome ; Kacer, R. ; Kameník, O. ; Konopecký, F. ; Lamazoshvili, Beka ; Lukáč, J. ; Menkyna, Robert ; Mirzoyan, Armen ; Motl, T. ; Musil, K. ; Plotnikov, S. ; Rasulova, Khanifakhon ; Remo, A. ; Vlček, J.
Document type: Research reports
Year: 2012
Language: eng
Abstract: The report consists of three chapters. Chapter 1 presents the structural macroeconomic model, its changes compared to the June 2010 version, and its properties captured by impulse-response functions and by variance decompositions of the model’s variables in terms of the model’s shocks. What is important is the part on the model-consistent interpretation of the recent economic history of Cambodia. The section describing Bayesian vector autoregressions used for the near-term forecasting concludes. Chapter 2 evaluates how the models perform empirically. The forecasting power is assessed using both within-sample and out-of-sample comparisons with the random-walk benchmark. We conclude that the FPAS performs satisfactorily in this comparison. The last chapter provides an overview of the considerable country database that has been compiled.
Keywords: Cambodia; forecasting and policy analysis system
Project no.: LF11018 (CEP)
Funding provider: GA MŠk

Institution: Economics Institute AS ČR (web)
Document availability information: Fulltext is available at the institute of the Academy of Sciences.
Original record: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0232222

Permalink: http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-172543


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