|
|
Practical usage of optimal portfolio diversification using maximum entropy principle
Chopyk, Ostap ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Kraicová, Lucie (referee)
"Practical usage of optimal portfolio diversification using maximum entropy principle" by Ostap Chopyk Abstract This thesis enhances the investigation of the principle of maximum entropy, implied in the portfolio diversification problem, when portfolio consists of stocks. Entropy, as a measure of diversity, is used as the objective function in the optimization problem with given side constraints. The principle of maximum entropy, by the nature itself, suggests the solution for two problems; it reduces the estimation error of inputs, as it has a shrinkage interpretation and it leads to more diversified portfolio. Furthermore, improvement to the portfolio optimization is made by using design-free estimation of variance-covariance matrices of stock returns. Design-free estimation is proven to provide superior estimate of large variance-covariance matrices and for data with heavy-tailed densities. To asses and compare the performance of the portfolios, their out-of-sample Sharpe ratios are used. In nominal terms, the out-of- sample Sharpe ratios are almost always lower for the portfolios, created using maximum entropy principle, than for 'classical' Markowitz's efficient portfolio. However, this out-of-sample Sharpe ratios are not statistically different, as it was tested by constructing studentized time-series...
|
|
|
Time-scale analysis of sovereign bonds market co-movement in the EU
Šmolík, Filip ; Vácha, Lukáš (advisor) ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (referee)
The thesis analyses co-movement of 10Y sovereign bond yields of 11 EU mem- bers (Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy, France, Germany, Netherlands, Great Britain, Belgium, Sweden and Denmark) divided into the three groups (the Core of the Eurozone, the Periphery of the Eurozone, the states outside the Eurozone). In the center of attention are changes of co-movement in the crisis period, especially near the two significant dates - the fall of Lehman Brothers (15.9.2008) and the day, when increase of Greek public deficit was announced (20.10.2009). Main contribution of the thesis is usage of alternative methodol- ogy - wavelet transformation. It allows to research how co-movement changes across scales (frequencies) and through time. Wavelet coherence is used as well as wavelet bivariate and multiple correlation. The thesis brings three main findings: (1) co-movement significantly decreased in the crisis period, but the results differ in the groups, (2) co-movement significantly differs across scales, but its heterogeneity decreased in the crisis period, (3) near to the examined dates sharp and significant decrease of wavelet correlation was observable across lower scales in some states. JEL Classification C32, C49, C58, H63 Keywords Co-movement, Wavelet Transformation, Sovereign Debt Crisis, Sovereign Bond Yields,...
|
|
|
Statistical properties of the liquidity and its influence on the volatility prediction
Brandejs, David ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Burda, Martin (referee)
This master thesis concentrates on the influence of liquidity measures on the prediction of volatility and given the magic triangle phenomena subsequently on the expected return. Liquidity measures Amihud Illiquidity, Amivest Liquidity and Roll adjusted for high frequency data have been utilized. Dataset used for the modeling was consisting of 98 shares that were traded on S&P 100. The time range was from 1st January 2013 to 31st December 2014. We have found out that the liquidity truly enters into the return-volatility relationship and influences these variables - the magic triangle interacts. However, contrary to our hypothesis, the model shows up that lower liquidity signifies lower realized risk. This inference has been suggested by all three models (3SLS, 2SLS and OLS). Furthermore, we have used the realized variance and bi-power variation to separate the jump. Our second hypothesis that lower liquidity signifies higher frequency of jumps was confirmed only for one of two liquidity proxies (Roll) included in the resulting logit FE model. Keywords liquidity, risk, volatility, expected return, magic triangle, price jumps, realized variance, bi-power variation, three-stage least squares model, logit, high-frequency data, S&P 100 Author's e-mail david.brandejs@seznam.cz Supervisor's e-mail...
|
|
|
Efficient market hypothesis in the modern era
Vlček, Šimon ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Korbel, Václav (referee)
Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) has been the central assumption of financial modelling in the previous decades. At its core, it is a statement about the efficient incorporation of available information in the prices of assets, rendering each price a 'true' representation of the asset's intrinsic value. The notion of informationally efficient financial markets has been, since its formulation, entrenched in the very core of our understanding of how asset pricing works, yet, with ever so increasing frequency, when subjected to empirical scrutiny, it fails to prove its explanatory and predictive prowess. New academic strands emerged have emerged as a result, attempting to explain those empirical short-comings, with rather mixed results. The new models and theories often either explain a singular anomaly, rather than pro- viding a generalized and consistent theoretical framework, or are exclusive with the general state of financial markets, which tends to be efficient and rational. This thesis shall explore the relationship of information and financial mar- kets, taking into account developments that have occurred since the inception of the EMH. Subsequently it will present a new theoretical model for asset pric- ing and ipso facto the efficiency of financial markets, based on meta-analysis of information, along...
|
|
|
Are financial returns and volatility multifractal at all?
Sedlaříková, Jana ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Kraicová, Lucie (referee)
Over the last decades, multifractality has become a downright stylized fact in financial markets. However, its presence has not been adequately statistically proved. The main aim of this thesis is to contribute to the discussion by an ex- tensive statistical analysis of the problem. We investigate returns and volatility of the collection of the four stock indices employing the three popular methods: the GHE, the MF-DFA, and the MF-DMA method. By comparing the results of the original series to those for simulated monofractal series, we conclude that stock market returns as well as volatility exhibit a multifractal nature. Additionally, in order to understand the origin of underlying multifractality, we study vari- ous surrogate series. We found that a fat-tailed distribution significantly affects multifractality. On the other, we were not able to confirm the impact of time correlations as the results strongly depend on the applied model. JEL Classification F12, G02, G10, C12, C22, C49, C58 Keywords econophysics, multifractality, financial markets, Hurst exponent Author's e-mail jana.sedlarikova@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail kristoufek@ies-prague.org
|
|
|
Algorithmic fundamental trading
Pižl, Vojtěch ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Bubák, Vít (referee)
This thesis aims to apply methods of value investing into developing field of algorithmic trading. Firstly, we investigate the effect of several fundamental variables on stock returns using the fixed effects model and portfolio approach. The results confirm that size and book- to-market ratio explain some variation in stock returns that market alone do not capture. Moreover, we observe a significant positive effect of book-to-market ratio and negative effect of size on future stock returns. Secondly, we try to utilize those variables in a trading algorithm. Using the common performance evaluation tools we test several fundamentally based strategies and discover that investing into small stocks with high book-to-market ratio beats the market in the tested period between 2009 and 2015. Although we have to be careful with conclusions as our dataset has some limitations, we believe that there is a market anomaly in the testing period which may be caused by preference of technical strategies over value investing by market participants.
|
|
|
Wavelet portfolio optimization: Investment horizons, stability in time and rebalancing
Kvasnička, Tomáš ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Kukačka, Jiří (referee)
The main objective of the thesis is to analyse impact of wavelet covariance estimation in the context of Markowitz mean-variance portfolio selection. We use a rolling window to apply maximum overlap discrete wavelet transform to daily returns of 28 companies from DJIA 30 index. In each step, we compute portfolio weights of global minimum variance portfolio and use those weights in the out-of- sample forecasts of portfolio returns. We let rebalancing period to vary in order to test influence of long-term and short-term traders. Moreover, we test impact of different wavelet filters including Haar, D4 and LA8. Results reveal that only portfolios based on the first scale wavelet covariance produce significantly higher returns than portfolios based on the whole sample covariance. The disadvantage of those portfolios is higher riskiness of returns represented by higher Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall, as well as higher instability of portfolio weights represented by shorter period that is required for portfolio weights to significantly differ. The impact of different wavelet filters is rather minor. The results suggest that all relevant information about the financial market is contained in the first wavelet scale and that the dynamics of this scale is more intense than the dynamics of the whole market.
|
|
|
Sustainable Energy Development in Central Europe and East Asia: Different Scenarios and Options Evaluation
Tan, Tianhao ; Janda, Karel (advisor) ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (referee) ; Espinoza, Raphael (referee)
This research presents an overview of different sustainable energy development scenarios in Central Europe and East Asia, and is aimed to evaluate the efficiency and availability for introducing a specific sustainable energy source. Accordingly: wind, hydropower, solar, bioenergy, geothermal, nuclear energy. By conducting analysis though multi criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) models, divergences among energy options in Central Europe and East Asia are emphasised due to its preferences in hierarchy. A short introduction, related to the present energy outlook with a series of relative regressions and a case study based on corresponding statistics, is presented firstly. This gives insights to assess the evaluation of sustainable energy development options. Evaluation results indicating Central Europe and East Asia should introduce different sustainable energy technologies on account of their own strengths and drawbacks in energy judgements and criterions. Keywords Sustainable energy, energy development, Central Europe, East Asia, energy scenario, energy option, evaluation, multi criteria decision analysis (MCDA), analytic hierarchy process (AHP)
|
|
|
Predicting Stock Market Volatility with Google Trends
Pecháček, Jan ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Janotík, Tomáš (referee)
This thesis aims to investigate the usability of Google Trends data for predicting stock market volatility. Using daily Google data on tickers of three companies with large market capitalization, we examine the causal relationship between Google data and volatility proxy. We employ two common models for volatility, Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity model (GARCH) and Heterogeneous Autoregressive model (HAR) and we augment them by adding Google data. We studied the performance of in-sample forecasting and out-sample forecasting. Our results show that Google data Granger-cause stock market volatility and is able to produce more accurate results in in-sample forecasts then models without Google data added.
|
|
|
Testing the Effects of Parameter Changes in the Bornholdt's Model
Chrz, Štěpán ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Seman, Vojtěch (referee)
In this work we thoroughly analyze Bornholdt's version of Ising model of ferromagnetism, with emphasis on its ability to mimic some basic stylized facts of financial series. Initially, we provide a breakdown of model definition and analysis of underlying dynamics. Subsequently, we examine and confirm model's ability to mimic stylized facts of financial series. To examine robustness of this ability to parameter change, we conduct simulations over a set of parameter combinations. We conclude that there is a wide set of combinations that yields acceptable simulation results. We also note that the seemingly best results are obtained at parameter values close to border of this set. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
|
guest ::
RSS feed.