Original title: Modeling Mozambique
Authors: Cincibuch, M. ; Kejak, Michal ; Vávra, D. ; Auda, O. ; Aslanyan, Gurgen ; Bečičková, H. ; Daniš, P. ; Hřebíček, H. ; Janjgava, Batlome ; Kacer, R. ; Kameník, O. ; Konopecký, F. ; Lamazoshvili, Beka ; Lukáč, J. ; Menkyna, Robert ; Mirzoyan, Armen ; Motl, T. ; Musil, K. ; Plotnikov, S. ; Rasulova, Khanifakhon ; Remo, A. ; Vlček, J.
Document type: Research reports
Year: 2012
Language: eng
Abstract: The report has four chapters. Chapter 1 summarizes the main features of the Mozambican economy relevant for building the FPAS. Chapter 2 presents the structural macroeconomic model and its properties, captured by the decompositions of the variances of the model’s variables in terms of the model shocks and by the model’s impulse-response functions. This chapter also describes the Bayesian vector autoregressions used for near-term forecasting. Chapter 3 evaluates how the models perform empirically. The forecasting power is assessed both in the sample and by using an out-of-the-sample comparison with the standard random-walk benchmark. We conclude that the FPAS performs satisfactorily in this comparison. Chapter 4 summarizes the data used in the structural model and the issues identified during the data collection process.
Keywords: forecasting and policy analysis system; Mozambique
Project no.: LF11018 (CEP)
Funding provider: GA MŠk

Institution: Economics Institute AS ČR (web)
Document availability information: Fulltext is available at the institute of the Academy of Sciences.
Original record: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0232223

Permalink: http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-172542


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