Název:
Modeling Guatemala
Autoři:
Cincibuch, M. ; Kejak, Michal ; Vávra, D. ; Auda, O. ; Aslanyan, Gurgen ; Bečičková, H. ; Daniš, P. ; Hřebíček, H. ; Janjgava, Batlome ; Kacer, R. ; Kameník, O. ; Konopecký, F. ; Lamazoshvili, Beka ; Lukáč, J. ; Menkyna, Robert ; Mirzoyan, Armen ; Motl, T. ; Musil, K. ; Plotnikov, S. ; Rasulova, Khanifakhon ; Remo, A. ; Vlček, J. Typ dokumentu: Výzkumné zprávy
Rok:
2012
Jazyk:
eng
Abstrakt: The report consists of three chapters. Chapter 1 presents the structural macroeconomic model, its changes compared to the December 2009 version, and its properties captured by impulse-response functions and by variance decompositions of model’s variables in terms of the model shocks. Important is the part on the model-consistent interpretation of the recent economic history of Guatemala. The section describing Bayesian vector autoregressions used for the nearterm forecasting concludes. Chapter 2 evaluates how the models perform empirically. The forecasting power is assessed using both in-sample and out-of-sample comparisons with the random-walk benchmark. We conclude that the FPAS performs satisfactorily in this comparison. The last chapter provides an overview of the considerable country database that has been compiled.
Klíčová slova:
forecasting and policy analysis system; Guatemala Číslo projektu: LF11018 (CEP) Poskytovatel projektu: GA MŠk
Instituce: Národohospodářský ústav AV ČR
(web)
Informace o dostupnosti dokumentu:
Dokument je dostupný v příslušném ústavu Akademie věd ČR. Původní záznam: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0232224