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Tools for Decision Making under Uncertainty
Sečkárová, Vladimíra
In this paper we focus on two often considered distinct aims, namely maximizing of an utility function (e.g. an investment profit) and getting a more reliable global description of considered situation based on observed data (e.g. the final outcome of databases merging). In both cases we face the problem, that the data are unreliable, since they contain uncertainty caused by their source (i.e. human being). If we are looking for the optimum of the former aim, a game theory reformulation of the decision making task brings a smoother way to reach it. If the latter aim is considered, a merging procedure (also called fusion) processing the data should help us. This paper describes four recently developed methods dealing with decision making under uncertainty in two considered directions and one tool used for comparison of the fusion algorithms.
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The value of life from macroenomic point of view in United States of America, Czech republic and Russia between years 2007-2014
Antoš, Michal ; Zeman, Martin (advisor) ; Brabec, Petr (referee)
The subject of this bachelor thesis is the research of the value of life calculation in the Czech republic, United states of America and Russia in 2007-2014.The main purpose is to analyze and compare values of life and major factors influencing them. The hypothesis is that value of life differs in selected countries due to distinctions of sections influencing them. The theoretical part is devoted to sections directly or indirectly influencing values of life, and then analyzing and comparing them together within the selected countries. The selected sections are education, health care, labor market, inequality and living standards. The practical thesis approach is to calculate the values of life for the individual states. The values of life are calculated for so called, representative individual, who is 40-years old citizen of selected country. In the period, in which is the value of life calculated, the retirement age and life expectancy are also considered in formula. Calculated values are examined and the economic and political measures are offered to the states, which can turn into significant increases in the value of life in future.
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Fed's Easy Money Policy during Alan Greenspan's presidency in Board of Governors (1987-2006)
Mašek, František ; Johnson, Zdenka (advisor) ; Tajovský, Ladislav (referee)
The main theme of the work is the Fed's monetary policy during the time, when chairman of the Board of Governors was Alan Greenspan. The greatest attention is aimed at the influence of Fed's expansive monetary policy on the so-called dot-com bubble and later mortgage crisis, which subsequently developer into the financial crisis. Through a thorough analysis of many scientific papers written by known economists and my own analysis and evalution I opine that the effect of expansionary monetary policy on the bubble in technological assets and mortgage crisis is rather minor. Fed subordinated all actions to achieve its monetary policy objectives, so criticism of its conducted monetary policy is essentially a critique of these objectives as such. I consider the emergence of new technologies and the so-called theory of feedback as the main cause of dot-com bubble. In the mortgage crisis and subsequent financial crisis as main determinants I consider reluctance of goverment officials strongly regulate activities of investment banks and other investment companies, moral hazard, failure of rating agencies, and federal support for home ownership coupled with the deregulation of the financial sector.
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A Comparison of Two Models of the Energy Market Development in Czech Republic from 2015 to 2040
Dvořáková, Jitka ; Zeman, Martin (advisor) ; Lukášová, Tereza (referee)
The bachelor thesis is focused on the prediction of the energy market in the Czech Republic between 2015 and 2040 and on the comparison of potential costs related to two models of energy portfolio management. The first model was created according to the National Energy Concept from 2014, while the other one was designed artificially to simulate usage of the renewable resources in 50% of the electric energy production. The theoretical part of the thesis discusses the recent situation of the Czech energy market, defines types of energy resources and explains terms related to the discussed topic. In the practical part, direct production costs of different kinds of power plants were computed and used to estimate economic demands of the two considered models. The efficiency of both models was compared and evaluated. The aim of the thesis was to decide, which of the two models would be more favourable for the Czech national economy. Key words: energy, energy market, direct costs, economic advantage JEL classification: Q40, Q41, Q43, Q47
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Multicriteria games
Tichá, Michaela ; Dlouhý, Martin (advisor) ; Lachout, Petr (referee) ; Čičková, Zuzana (referee)
Theory of multicriteria games is a special field of game theory, when one or more players have at least two payoff functions and want to maximize simultaneously. The work introduces a number of new findings. It examined the concept of finding equilibria in pure strategies in noncooperative multicriteria game. It is possible to find all the equilibria in pure strategies by full search and solving two linear programs for each point. Furthermore, two linear programs are formulated for verifying that a selected point is the equilibrium of the game or not. In the noncooperative games is also introduced the concept that with knowledge of the equilibrium of bimatrix game determines preferences of the players. Although finding the equilibrium point of the bimatrix game is nonlinear problem, finding the preferences is linear problem. The latest findings in the noncooperative games is a generalization of the concept that solves multicriteria game by assigning weights to each criterion of each player. The work demonstrates that it may not be necessarily linear weights, but it can be more general function that describes the player's preference. The remaining part is devoted to knowledge in cooperative games. There is considered that the players know their preferences and are able to express them by weights. The game with known preferences is defined and solved with the use of bargaining theory. Then it is generalized to a case where players have more payoff functions, from which they can choose. Finally, the multicriteria case of voting game is defined. It is designed completely new concept, which selects the winning coalition in the voting game. This concept is then applied to the real situation after the elections to the Chamber of Deputies in 2013.
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A Comparison of Preconditioning Methods for Saddle Point Problems with an Application to Porous Media Flow Problems
Axelsson, Owe ; Blaheta, Radim ; Hasal, Martin
The paper overviews and compares some block preconditioners for the solution of saddle point systems, especially systems arising from the Brinkman model of porous media flow. The considered preconditioners involve different Schur complements as inverse free Schur complement in HSS (Hermitian - Skew Hermitian Splitting preconditioner), Schur complement to the velocity matrix and finally Schur complement to a regularization block in the augmented matrix preconditioner. The inverses appearing in most of the considered Schur complements are approximated by simple sparse approximation techniques as element-by-element and Frobenius norm minimization approaches. A special interest is devoted to problems involving various Darcy, Stokes and Brinkman flow regions, the efficiency of preconditioners in this case is demonstrated by some numerical experiments.
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Access to Information and Access to Justice in Environmental Matters in the Republic of Irealand and the Czech Republic
Vítková, Martina ; Stejskal, Vojtěch (advisor) ; Sobotka, Michal (referee)
This diploma thesis deals with access to environmental information and access to justice in environmental matters introduced by Aarhus Convention in the specific conditions of Czech Republic and Ireland. These rights are considered to be very important tools for environmental protection. At a time when people threaten their own existence by negative interference with the environment it is necessary that effective means for its protection exist. These means are access to environmental information and access to justice in environmental matters, which together can be called as environmental procedural rights. The first chapter of this thesis presents the sources of environmental procedural law and observes the development of law at international, European and national level. The most important international document in this field is the Aarhus Convention that was adopted in 1998 by most of the European countries and that provides for access to environmental information, access to justice and public participation in environmental decision-making. This convention has largely affected the law of the European Union, where several directives has been adopted, including most importantly the Directive 2003/4/EC on access to environmental information and the Directive 2003/35/EC on public participation in...
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Profile and reflections of dance department of the Juilliard school
Červinka, Marek ; JANEČEK, Václav (advisor) ; KŘENKOVÁ, Mahulena (referee)
This bachelor thesis, called Profile and Reflection of Juilliard School’s Dance Division, first of all briefly touches the key events in history of both classical and modern dance in the first half of the twentieth century and then approaches the history of The Bennington School of the Dance which is considered to be the Juilliard’s predecessor. After a general historical overview, descriptions of the educational goals and study programs, is the rest of the work focussing on Juilliard’s Dance Division in detail. Its past accomplishments, famous teachers, study programs and the admission procedures are discussed. All these information, including the interviews with Jarek Cemerek, a Czech choreographer and dance teacher, and with Brennan Clost, a current student of the fourth year at The Juilliard School, were used as a final reflection of Juilliard’s Dance Division. The comparison of Czech dance schools with The Juilliard School is comprised in this section.
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NUMERICAL ESTIMATION OF MICRO-CRACK PATHS IN POLYMER PARTICULATE COMPOSITE
Majer, Z. ; Náhlík, Luboš
Determination of composite mechanical behavior is one of important part during the composite tailoring. The aim of the present work was to estimate a micro-crack behavior in a polymer particulate composite. The composite was investigated by means of the finite element method -using ANSYS software. A two-dimensional three-phase finite element model was developed to analyze the crack growth behavior. The assumptions of the linear elastic fracture mechanics were considered and the Maximum Tangential Stress (MTS) criterion was used to predict the direction of the crack propagation. The effect of the elastic modulus of the interphase on the micro-crack propagation was investigated. The properties of matrix and particles were taken from experiment. It was shown that the interphase properties influence the stress intensity factor KI as well as the micro-crack paths. The results of this paper can contribute to a better understanding of the micro-crack propagation in particulate composites with respect to the interphase.
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Effect of snowpack on runoff generation during rain on snow event.
Juras, Roman ; Máca, Petr (advisor) ; Ladislav , Ladislav (referee)
During a winter season, when snow covers the watershed, the frequency of rain-on-snow (ROS) events is still raising. ROS can cause severe natural hazards like floods or wet avalanches. Prediction of ROS effects is linked to better understanding of snowpack runoff dynamics and its composition. Deploying rainfall simulation together with hydrological tracers was tested as a convenient tool for this purpose. Overall 18 sprinkling experiments were conducted on snow featuring different initial conditions in mountainous regions over middle and western Europe.
Dye tracer brilliant blue (FCF) was used for flow regime determination, because it enables to visualise preferential paths and layers interface. Snowpack runoff composition was assessed by hydrograph separation method, which provided appropriate results with acceptable uncertainty. It was not possible to use concurrently these two techniques because of technical reasons, however it would extend our gained knowledge. Snowmelt water amount in the snowpack runoff was estimated by energy balance (EB) equation, which is very efficient but quality inputs demanding. This was also the reason, why EB was deployed within only single experiment.
Timing of snowpack runoff onset decrease mainly with the rain intensity. Initial snowpack properties like bulk density or wetness are less important for time of runoff generation compared to the rain intensity. On the other het when same rain intensity was applied, non-ripe snowpack featuring less bulk density created runoff faster than the ripe snowpack featuring higher bulk density. Snowpack runoff magnitude mainly depends on the snowpack initial saturation. Ripe snowpack with higher saturation enabled to generate higher cumulative runoff where contributed by max 50 %. In contrary, rainwater travelled through the non-ripe snowpack relatively fast and contributed runoff by approx. 80 %.
Runoff prediction was tested by deploying Richards equation included in SNOWPACK model. The model was modified using a dual-domain approach to better simulate snowpack runoff under preferential flow conditions. Presented approach demonstrated an improvement in all simulated aspects compared to the more traditional method when only matrix flow is considered.
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