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Influence of social politics on fertility rate in specific regions of Czech republic
Dvořák, Josef ; Melzochová, Jitka (advisor) ; Babin, Jan (referee)
Thesis is focused on relationship between fertility rate and tools of state support. The goal is to reveal relationship between these two factors. Partial goal is to discover specific effects of tools of state support in specific regions of Czech republic. I have aimed on research at national level and also specific regions between years 1993-2014. In order to find these relationships I used method that compares differences in development of the fertility rate. After that, I set up regression model solved by method called fixed effects. For specific regions analysis was used OLS method. Model was able to explain more than 80 % of variability. This results can be used for predicting of citizens behavior, when some changes in family allowances occurs. Main finding is, that most motivating tools are parenting allowances and child benefits.
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Empirical analysis of Okun’s law in Iceland
Zajíček, Zdeněk ; Slaný, Martin (advisor) ; Chytilová, Helena (referee)
This thesis deals with empirical analysis of Okuns law in Iceland. Okuns hypothesis of negative relationship between real GDP and the rate of unemployment is being tested on two models, difference and gap, using OLS estimation. Also there are two filtration methods used (Hodrick-Prescott and Baxter-King) for gap model estimation. The results of all models showed weak relationship of variables, but proved the hypothesis. In the following part, the same procedure is being used on Finlands data, to get comparison of coefficients. Results for Finland showed weaker bond of variables than in Iceland, but the Okuns hypothesis still holds. Last part is focused on finding the sensitivity of rate of unemployment to changes in added value of each economical sector in Iceland using the production approach model. This model gave inconclusive results due to insufficient data available.
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Use of Interest Rate Models for Interest Rate Risk Management in the Czech Financial Market Environment
Cíchová Králová, Dana ; Arlt, Josef (advisor) ; Cipra, Tomáš (referee) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee)
The main goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to interest rate risk modeling in the Czech financial market environment in various situations. Three distinct periods are analyzed. These periods, which are the period before the global financial crisis, period during the financial crisis and in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and calming subsequent debt crisis in the eurozone, are characterized by different evaluation of liquidity and credit risk, different relationship between financial variables and market participants and different degree of market regulations. Within this goal, an application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment is crucial. Use of the BGM model for the purpose of predicting a dynamics of a yield curve is not very common. This is firstly due to the fact that primary use of this model is a valuation of interest rate derivatives while ensuring the absence of arbitrage and secondly its application is relatively difficult. Nevertheless, I apply the BGM model to obtain predictions of the probability distributions of interest rates in the Czech and eurozone market environment, because its complexity, direct modeling of a yield curve based on market rates and especially a possibility of parameter estimation based on current swaptions volatilities quotations may lead to a significant improvement of predictions. This improvement was also confirmed in this thesis. Use of swaptions volatilities market quotations is especially useful in the period of unprecedented mone- tary easing and increased number of central banks and other regulators interventions into financial markets that occur after the financial crisis, because it reflects current market expectations which also include future interventions. As a consequence of underdevelopment of the Czech financial market there are no market quotations of Czech koruna denominated swaptions volatilities. I suggest their approximations based on quotations of euro denominated swaptions volatilities and also using volatilities of koruna and euro forward rates. Use of this approach ensures that predictions of the Czech yield curve dynamics contain current market expectations. To my knowledge, any other author has not presented similar application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment. In this thesis I further predict a Czech and Euro area money market yield curve dynamics using the CIR and the GP models as representatives of various types of interest rates models to compare these predictions with BGM predictions. I suggest a comprehensive system of three criteria, based on comparison of predicti- ons with reality, to describe a predictive power of selected models and an appropria- teness of their use in the Czech market environment during different situations in the market. This analysis shows that predictions of the Czech money market yield curve dynamics based on the BGM model demonstrate high predictive power and the best 8 quality in comparison with other models. GP model also produces relatively good qua- lity predictions. Conversely, predictions based on the CIR model as a representative of short rate model family completely failed when describing reality. In a situation when the economy allows negative rates and there is simultaneously a significant likelihood of their implementation, I recommend to obtain predictions of Czech money market yield curve dynamics using GP model which allows existence of negative interest rates. This analysis also contains a statistical test for validating the predictive power of each model and information on other tests. Berkowitz test rejects a hypothesis of accurate predictions for each model. However, this fact is common in real data testing even when using relatively good model. This fact is especially caused by difficult fulfilment of test conditions in real world. To my knowledge, such an analysis of the predictive power of selected interest rate models moreover in the Czech financial market environment has not been published yet. The last goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to obtaining pre- dictions of Czech government bonds risk premium dynamics. I define this risk premium as a difference between government bond yields and fixed rate of CZK IRS with the same length. I apply the GP model to describe the dynamics of this indicator of the Czech Republic credit risk. In order to obtain a time series of the risk premium which are necessary for estimation of GP model parameters I firstly estimate yield curves of Czech government bonds using Svensson model for each trading day since 2005. Resulting si- mulations of risk premium show that the GP model predicts the real development of risk premiums of all maturities relatively well. Hence, the proposed approach is suitable for modeling of Czech Republic credit risk based on the use of information extracted from financial markets. I have not registered proposed approach to risk premium modeling moreover in the Czech financial market environment in other publications.
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Differences between men and women in the Czech labour market
Stroukal, Dominik ; Kadeřábková, Božena (advisor) ; Pavelka, Tomáš (referee) ; Němec, Otakar (referee)
This thesis consists of five articles that apply current world research on labor economics at the Czech Republic and confirms the significant differences between men and women in this market. It shows that gender has a significant influence on the preference on the labor market and, consequently, on employment and health. First, the thesis shows that preferences are relevant determinant of career and then we study the difference in preference of salary for men and women. Subsequently it shows that gender plays a significant role in explaining the relationship between homeownership, and unemployment, as well as unemployment and health. The first chapter was able to demonstrate that the preference for a career has a positive influence on the choice of career. The influence of higher education on prioritizing career proved to be positive and significant. Probability of a career choice is reduced by the presence of children, however, is not dependent on their number, which is contrary to the theory of preferences. The second chapter shows that Czech women prefer more non-monetary rewards than men. It has also been shown that people with university education are same in the preferences of non-monetary rewards regardless of the gender of the respondents, however, compared to the world's research, the Czech higher education increases this preference. It turned out that women prefer risk less than men. The third chapter demonstrates that although the housing market undermines labor mobility and employment in the Czech Republic at the regional level, therefore, that in regions with a higher rate of home ownership is higher unemployment, at the individual level, the owners of housing are unemployed are less likely. The estimates are significantly different for men and women. Men living in owner-occupied housing have a higher likelihood of employment than women. At regional level, however, this thesis shows that the high rate of home ownership increases unemployment for both men and women, in the long run only to women. The fourth chapter showed that men transition to homeownership reduces the likelihood of unemployment next year. For women, this relationship has proved to be insignificant. In addition, as insignificant showed the opposite relationship, the transition from unemployment to the newly acquired home ownership. The last chapter shows that the change in the working status to unemployment will increase in the future probability of worse health. Influence in less than two years, however, proved to be significant. An important conclusion is that men have a significantly stronger relationship between health and unemployment than women.
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Data Mining for Effective Customer Communication
Madhi, Simona ; Šperková, Lucie (advisor) ; Novotný, Ota (referee)
The aim of this paper is to describe and illustrate benefits of using Data Mining for effective customer communication. The objective is to perform a Data Mining analysis in order to achieve results with potentially beneficial influence on the company s relationship with its customers, while using the KNIME Analytics Platform tool. The paper introduces the theoretical aspect of Customer Relationship Management, Data Mining and the opportunities of using Data Mining to improve CRM; followed by a market analysis of available Data Mining tools and the introduction of the KNIME Analysis Platform. Furthermore, the knowledge thus reached is used for the performance of real data analysis with the aim of reaching customer knowledge that would be appropriate to use within CRM strategy and finally to positively influence the value of customer relationships.
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The proposal of CRM strategy in selected company
Gorolová, Pavlína ; Koliš, Karel (advisor) ; Kociánová, Jana (referee)
This thesis discusses the philosophy of customer relationship management. Main goal of the work is to analyze the processes in a specific company and to recommend a solution for customer relationship. Thesis is divided into three parts. Theoretical part presents readers with basic concepts of customer relationship management, its principles, development and strategy. Furthermore, pays attention to customer and their value. Methodical part defines the method of analysis, which is applicated in practical part. Practical part is focused on a specific company, on its introduction, history and analysis of internal and external environment. In conclusion of this thesis individual recommendations and improvement proposals are listed.
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Implementation of philosophy of CRM in selected company in airline industry
Pavelka, Jakub ; Koliš, Karel (advisor) ; Konvalinka, Michal (referee)
The aim of this Bachelors Thesis is to define the philosophy, individual phases and the most important principles in building the customer relationship management and their theoretical concepts applied in selected company in airline industry. Based on the identification of places and processes that have the most significant impact on interaction between customers and company will be formulated fundamental measures for the implementation of the philosophy.
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Analysis, design and implementation of CRM solutions for selected company
Ilavský, Dávid ; Pour, Jan (advisor) ; Šedivá, Zuzana (referee)
Bachelor thesis focuses on the area of information systems, which are used to support customer relationship management in companies. The main objective of this work is to provide a sample of solution for CRM system implementation for real customer from the banking sector. The first part defines basic functional areas of any CRM application. Each of these areas is described in more detail in terms of its primary use and tasks that within the CRM as a whole performs. Further is described the analytical area of CRM application (or Customer Intelligence), which is gradually playing a key role in the entire CRM system in past few years. It includes its potential uses in various fields. At the end of the theoretical part, the author compares the fundamental differences between cloud model of deployment and traditional on-premise solution. The practical part focuses on the main objective of the thesis and description of the supplied solution in the form of a module, which extends the existing CRM application with the option for business partners registration of Hypoteční banka, a. s. and ČSOB Pojišťovna, centralized in one system. The requirement is build in Microsoft Dynamics CRM 2011 and as the source system it is used CRM system of Hypoteční banka, a. s..
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CRM System Optimization
Fučík, Ivan ; Mildeová, Stanislava (advisor)
This thesis is focused on CRM solutions in small and medium-sized organizations with respect to the quality of their customer relationship. The main goal of this work is to design an optimal CRM solution in the environment of real organization. To achieve this goal it is necessary to understand the theoretical basis of several topics, such as organizations and their relationship with customers, CRM systems, their features and trends. On the basis of these theoretical topics it is possible to analyze current CRM solution in the organization. From the data obtained by the methods of observation and controlled interview it was possible to prepare a design for optimal CRM solution. This optimal solution comes also from user and organization requirements. The optimal CRM solution saves time and costs associated with current CRM solution and replaces existing and ineffective CRM tools.
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