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Use of Interest Rate Models for Interest Rate Risk Management in the Czech Financial Market Environment
Cíchová Králová, Dana ; Arlt, Josef (advisor) ; Cipra, Tomáš (referee) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee)
The main goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to interest rate risk modeling in the Czech financial market environment in various situations. Three distinct periods are analyzed. These periods, which are the period before the global financial crisis, period during the financial crisis and in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and calming subsequent debt crisis in the eurozone, are characterized by different evaluation of liquidity and credit risk, different relationship between financial variables and market participants and different degree of market regulations. Within this goal, an application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment is crucial. Use of the BGM model for the purpose of predicting a dynamics of a yield curve is not very common. This is firstly due to the fact that primary use of this model is a valuation of interest rate derivatives while ensuring the absence of arbitrage and secondly its application is relatively difficult. Nevertheless, I apply the BGM model to obtain predictions of the probability distributions of interest rates in the Czech and eurozone market environment, because its complexity, direct modeling of a yield curve based on market rates and especially a possibility of parameter estimation based on current swaptions volatilities quotations may lead to a significant improvement of predictions. This improvement was also confirmed in this thesis. Use of swaptions volatilities market quotations is especially useful in the period of unprecedented mone- tary easing and increased number of central banks and other regulators interventions into financial markets that occur after the financial crisis, because it reflects current market expectations which also include future interventions. As a consequence of underdevelopment of the Czech financial market there are no market quotations of Czech koruna denominated swaptions volatilities. I suggest their approximations based on quotations of euro denominated swaptions volatilities and also using volatilities of koruna and euro forward rates. Use of this approach ensures that predictions of the Czech yield curve dynamics contain current market expectations. To my knowledge, any other author has not presented similar application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment. In this thesis I further predict a Czech and Euro area money market yield curve dynamics using the CIR and the GP models as representatives of various types of interest rates models to compare these predictions with BGM predictions. I suggest a comprehensive system of three criteria, based on comparison of predicti- ons with reality, to describe a predictive power of selected models and an appropria- teness of their use in the Czech market environment during different situations in the market. This analysis shows that predictions of the Czech money market yield curve dynamics based on the BGM model demonstrate high predictive power and the best 8 quality in comparison with other models. GP model also produces relatively good qua- lity predictions. Conversely, predictions based on the CIR model as a representative of short rate model family completely failed when describing reality. In a situation when the economy allows negative rates and there is simultaneously a significant likelihood of their implementation, I recommend to obtain predictions of Czech money market yield curve dynamics using GP model which allows existence of negative interest rates. This analysis also contains a statistical test for validating the predictive power of each model and information on other tests. Berkowitz test rejects a hypothesis of accurate predictions for each model. However, this fact is common in real data testing even when using relatively good model. This fact is especially caused by difficult fulfilment of test conditions in real world. To my knowledge, such an analysis of the predictive power of selected interest rate models moreover in the Czech financial market environment has not been published yet. The last goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to obtaining pre- dictions of Czech government bonds risk premium dynamics. I define this risk premium as a difference between government bond yields and fixed rate of CZK IRS with the same length. I apply the GP model to describe the dynamics of this indicator of the Czech Republic credit risk. In order to obtain a time series of the risk premium which are necessary for estimation of GP model parameters I firstly estimate yield curves of Czech government bonds using Svensson model for each trading day since 2005. Resulting si- mulations of risk premium show that the GP model predicts the real development of risk premiums of all maturities relatively well. Hence, the proposed approach is suitable for modeling of Czech Republic credit risk based on the use of information extracted from financial markets. I have not registered proposed approach to risk premium modeling moreover in the Czech financial market environment in other publications.
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Changes in structure and phase composition in the surface of tram rail
Švábenská, Eva ; Roupcová, Pavla ; Schneeweiss, Oldřich
We have investigated structure and phase composition of surface layer of tram rails after long time running and the results were compared with those obtained on the original part of material. Changes due to effects of severe plastic deformation together with thermal shocks by friction process were expected. The information about structure and phase composition was obtained by optical and scanning electron microscopy, X-Ray Powder Diffraction, Mössbauer Spectroscopy and Glow Discharge Emission Spectroscopy (GDOES) and this was completed by microhardness measurements. The results show that the surface layer in comparison with the original material exhibits important changes in grain structure, an increase in microhardness and high content of iron oxide and hydrooxides. According to the depth profile of the chemical composition measured by GDOES there is an increase in carbon content in the surface layer which can be effect of up-hill diffusion.
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STRAIN ENGINEERING OF THE ELECTRONIC STRUCTURE OF 2D MATERIALS
del Corro, Elena ; Peňa-Alvarez, M. ; Morales-García, A. ; Bouša, Milan ; Řáhová, Jaroslava ; Kavan, Ladislav ; Kalbáč, Martin ; Frank, Otakar
The research on graphene has attracted much attention since its first successful preparation in 2004. It possesses many unique properties, such as an extreme stiffness and strength, high electron mobility, ballistic transport even at room temperature, superior thermal conductivity and many others. The affection for graphene was followed swiftly by a keen interest in other two dimensional materials like transition metal dichalcogenides. As has been predicted and in part proven experimentally, the electronic properties of these materials can be modified by various means. The most common ones include covalent or non-covalent chemistry, electrochemical, gate or atomic doping, or quantum confinement. None of these methods has proven universal enough in terms of the devices' characteristics or scalability. However, another approach is known mechanical strain/stress, but experiments in that direction are scarce, in spite of their high promises.\nThe primary challenge consists in the understanding of the mechanical properties of 2D materials and in the ability to quantify the lattice deformation. Several techniques can be then used to apply strain to the specimens and thus to induce changes in their electronic structure. We will review their basic concepts and some of the examples so far documented experimentally and/or theoretically.
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ELECTRON BEAM REMELTING OF PLASMA SPRAYED ALUMINA COATINGS
Matějíček, Jiří ; Veverka, J. ; Čížek, J. ; Kouřil, J.
Plasma sprayed alumina coatings find numerous applications in various fields, where they enhance the properties of the base material. Examples include thermal barriers, wear resistance, electrical insulation, and diffusion and corrosion barriers. A typical structure of plasma sprayed coatings, containing a multitude of voids and imperfectly bonded interfaces, gives them unique properties - particularly low thermal conductivity, high strain tolerance, etc. However, for certain applications such as permeation barriers or wear resistance, these voids may be detrimental.\nThis paper reports on the first experiments with remelting of plasma sprayed alumina coatings by electron beam technology, with the purpose of densifying the coatings and thereby eliminating the voids. Throughout the study, several parameters of the e-beam device were varied - beam current, traverse velocity and number of passes. The treated coatings were observed by light and electron microscopy and the thickness, structure and surface morphology of the remelted layer were determined and correlated with the process parameters. Based on the first series of experiments, the e-beam settings leading to dense and smooth remelted layer of sufficient thickness were obtained. In this layer, a change of phase composition and a marked increase in hardness were observed.\n
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Sorption and Stabilization of Metals/Mettalloids by Innovative Synthesized Sorbent Amochar.
Ouředníček, P. ; Trakal, L. ; Komárek, M. ; Pohořelý, Michael
Remediation of contaminated soil which is based on stabilization and immobilization of potential\nhazardous substance by sorption materials has been studied intensively nowadays. Biochar – activated organic carbon belongs to this group of stabilizing agents which can adsorb wide range of contaminants, including metals/metalloids. Surface area of the biochars is quite large in general and functional groups (e.g. COO–) can form chelates or alkaline elements on the surface, which is represented by cation exchange capacity. Altogether with the high pH values (7.00 – 10.00), biochars are quite effective sorbents and can adsorb metals/metalloids from the solution (ground water), especially in acidic soils (in the environments affected by intensive mining activities). Sorption\neffectiveness can be increased (especially for As (V) or Cr (VI) sorption) by modification of biochar by various types of secondary oxides. Innovative sorbent AMOchar (AMO + biochar) has been synthesized currently. The product was prepared by adding of biochar to the reaction solution during amorphous manganese oxide (AMO) synthesis. The AMOchar was formed mainly by Mn-oxalates which had coated surface of the pristine biochar. AMOchar composite was able to remove significantly higher amounts of various metal(loid)s from the solution despite the rather high pH of the material. Sorption effectiveness was high not only in case of Pb (II) sorption (almost 99%), and Cd(II) (51.2%), but also a very high amount of As(V), 91.4%. Additionally, both AMOchar composite was able to reduce Mn leaching. This can avoid potential post-contamination caused by the dissolution of less stable Mn-oxalates as observed in the pure AMO.
Fulltext: content.csg - PDF Plný tet: SKMBT_22316111113040 - PDF
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Plasma spraying from liquids: plasma liquid interaction and coating build up
Tesař, Tomáš ; Mušálek, Radek ; Medřický, Jan ; Lukáč, František
Plasma spraying from liquid feedstocks is a rapidly developing field of thermal spraying since the coatings prepared from liquids exhibit some unique features, such as high hardness, thermal shock resistance or low thermal and electric conductivity. The key factor influencing the final coating character and properties is the input material which may be in the form of a suspension or a solution. Parameters of the selected suspension (solids concentration, viscosity, surface tension, chemical composition, etc.) or solution (concentration, etc.) determine its interaction with the plasma jet which strongly influences the coating buildup. This proceeding introduces the problematics of the interaction between the liquid feedstock material with the plasma jet and presents the way of evaluation of the coating buildup.
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Arctic tundra dendrochronology
Lehejček, Jiří ; Svoboda, Miroslav (advisor) ; Monika, Monika (referee)
Historically unprecedented environmental change in the Arctic ecosystems is often given into the context of its past and possible future development. In the region where instrumental meteorological observations are scarce archives need to be investigated in order to address this issues. The comprehensive synthesis one of the archives: long-live circumpolar evergreen Juniperus communis L. shrub is presented here. 20 individuals from southwest Greenland were investigated at the cell anatomy level to understand the ecology of the species and unhide its potential for environmental and climate reconstructions. The findings are as follows:
i) Stop of exponential cross-sectional conduit-lumen widening with increasing age is in contrast with conduit-lumen nature of trees. This indicates that shrubs do not need to saturate their water and nutrient demands via traits of classical hydraulic conductivity law but rather developed different mechanisms. Extreme weather conditions result in prostrate growth form. However, different weather factors probably influence shrub growth differently: While snow and wind act mechanically (a), temperature influences the form of growth physiologically (b). a) So long as the young shrub stem has high resilience to bend back to an upright position after snow melt and so long as it can withstand the wind during the vegetation season it most likely grows upright and the conduit-lumens widen. b) Temperature, resp. freeze-thaw events are responsible for the shrubs preference of safety (finite size of conduit-lumens) over hydraulic efficiency, thus not allowing for more primary growth. All of these (and other) factors are apparently working together and the transition of vertical to more horizontal growth is gradual. As a consequence, the conduit-lumen sizes may not have to be further increased (due to ecophysiological restrictions possibly also must not) because water is no longer transported against gravity.
ii) Observed age/growth trend has to be taken into consideration for further employment of the wood anatomical parameter in paleoenvironmental studies. That is, shrub cell parameters can only be used for this purposes if correctly detrended. This allows for more accurate as well as longer reconstructions because youth trend was often neglected in reconstructions based on shrub annual-rings.
iii) The south-western Greenland Ice-Sheet (GrIS) melt rates reconstruction is presented for the whole 20th century. This part of GrIS is considered as the most active. According to the presented reconstruction current GrIS melt rates are not uncommon for the last century being comparable to first decades of 20th century. This finding is particularly important contribution to the debate on Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Too high fresh water inputs into the Northern Atlantic from GrIS melting may slow down or even stop the AMOC which would result in more continental climate in Europe. Presented results indicate that this threshold lies higher than observed current melt rates of GrIS.
Fascinating Juniperus comunnis species has shown to be able to address many ecological as well as environmental open questions and due to its longevity and abundant distribution has a great potential to become an important player in the Arctic research.
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Diamond coated AlGaN/GaN high electron mobility transistors - effect of deposition process on gate electrode
Vanko, G. ; Ižák, Tibor ; Babchenko, O. ; Kromka, Alexander
We studied the influence of the diamond deposition on the degradation of Schottky gate electrodes (i.e. Ir or IrO2) and on the electrical characteristics of AlGaN/GaN high electron mobility transistors (HEMTs). In present study, the diamond films were selectively deposited on the AlGaN/GaN circular HEMT by focused (ellispoidal cavity reactor) and linear antenna (surface wave) microwave plasma at different temperatures from 400°C to 1100°C. The preliminary results on electrical measurements on the diamond-coated c-HEMTs showed degraded electrical properties comparing to c-HEMTs before deposition process, which was attributed to degradation of the Ir gate electrodes even at temperatures as low as 400°C. On the other hand, metal oxide gate electrode layer (IrO2) can withstand diamond CVD process even at high temperatures (~900°C) which make it suitable for fabrication of all-in-diamond c-HEMT devices for high-power applications.
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(100) substrate processing optimization for fabrication of smooth boron doped epitaxial diamond layer by PE CVD
Mortet, Vincent ; Fekete, Ladislav ; Ashcheulov, Petr ; Taylor, Andrew ; Hubík, Pavel ; Trémouilles, D. ; Bedel-Pereira, E.
Boron doped diamond layers were grown in an SEKI AX5010 microwave plasma enhanced chemical vapour deposition system. Effect of surface preparation, i.e. polishing and O2/H2 plasma etching on epitaxial growth on type Ib (100) HPHT synthetic diamonds were investigated. Using optimized substrate preparation, smooth (RRMS ~ 1 nm) boron doped diamond layers with metallic conduction and free of un-epitaxial crystallites were grown with a relatively high growth rate of 3.7 μm/h. Diamond were characterized by optical microscopy, optical profilometry, atomic force microscopy and Hall effect.
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