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Development of interest rates in the mortgage market in the Czech Republic between 2006-2016
Ditrichová, Gabriela ; Strejček, Ivo (advisor) ; Klement, Josef (referee)
This bachelor's thesis is focused on the development of interest rates in the mortgage market in the Czech Republic in the decade between 2006 and 2016. A strong economic growth between 2006 and 2007, which had positive effects in the mortgage loan market, was followed by a deep slump in the form of global financial crisis unleashed by speculations in the real estate market in the U.S. The main aim of the work is based on the development of mortgage interest rates and the significant factors that affect their amount - to verify or disprove the hypothesis that interest rates respond to changes of these factors. The results confirm the hypothesis only in certain areas. The influence of changes of interest rates has been proven in the case of inflation and discount rates by usage of the econometric model. Factors that have not shown a significant direct influence of interest rates may have an indirect influence on their change.
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Supervision of volunteers in nonprofit organizations
Beerová, Michala ; Kopecký, Martin (advisor) ; Šerák, Michal (referee)
The theme of the presented bachelor thesis is the process of supervision and the volunteerism. Volunteering is an important subject in today's society and essentials workforce in social work. The aim of this work is to focus on the non-profit sector and try to describe it. Furthermore, there is an explanation of the position of volunteers in these organizations and supervision in social work. Supervision is one of the managerial function in non-profit organizations, which is widely and long-term applied. The thesis wants to show basics, consequences and benefits of volunteer's supervision. Providing supervision is one of the main objectives of the organization to support staff or their volunteers. This bachelor thesis explores volunteering and supervision in two countries, the Czech Republic and Sweden. This thesis compares two different approaches, based on history of these two countries. Volunteering and supervision are very interesting features of the non-profit organizations. The practical part of this thesis comprises from qualitative investigation of different nonprofit organizations. The organizations were interviewed to get information about the purpose of the volunteering, educational potential of supervision and the current situation of volunteer supervision there. The aim of this investigation...
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Use of Interest Rate Models for Interest Rate Risk Management in the Czech Financial Market Environment
Cíchová Králová, Dana ; Arlt, Josef (advisor) ; Cipra, Tomáš (referee) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee)
The main goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to interest rate risk modeling in the Czech financial market environment in various situations. Three distinct periods are analyzed. These periods, which are the period before the global financial crisis, period during the financial crisis and in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and calming subsequent debt crisis in the eurozone, are characterized by different evaluation of liquidity and credit risk, different relationship between financial variables and market participants and different degree of market regulations. Within this goal, an application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment is crucial. Use of the BGM model for the purpose of predicting a dynamics of a yield curve is not very common. This is firstly due to the fact that primary use of this model is a valuation of interest rate derivatives while ensuring the absence of arbitrage and secondly its application is relatively difficult. Nevertheless, I apply the BGM model to obtain predictions of the probability distributions of interest rates in the Czech and eurozone market environment, because its complexity, direct modeling of a yield curve based on market rates and especially a possibility of parameter estimation based on current swaptions volatilities quotations may lead to a significant improvement of predictions. This improvement was also confirmed in this thesis. Use of swaptions volatilities market quotations is especially useful in the period of unprecedented mone- tary easing and increased number of central banks and other regulators interventions into financial markets that occur after the financial crisis, because it reflects current market expectations which also include future interventions. As a consequence of underdevelopment of the Czech financial market there are no market quotations of Czech koruna denominated swaptions volatilities. I suggest their approximations based on quotations of euro denominated swaptions volatilities and also using volatilities of koruna and euro forward rates. Use of this approach ensures that predictions of the Czech yield curve dynamics contain current market expectations. To my knowledge, any other author has not presented similar application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment. In this thesis I further predict a Czech and Euro area money market yield curve dynamics using the CIR and the GP models as representatives of various types of interest rates models to compare these predictions with BGM predictions. I suggest a comprehensive system of three criteria, based on comparison of predicti- ons with reality, to describe a predictive power of selected models and an appropria- teness of their use in the Czech market environment during different situations in the market. This analysis shows that predictions of the Czech money market yield curve dynamics based on the BGM model demonstrate high predictive power and the best 8 quality in comparison with other models. GP model also produces relatively good qua- lity predictions. Conversely, predictions based on the CIR model as a representative of short rate model family completely failed when describing reality. In a situation when the economy allows negative rates and there is simultaneously a significant likelihood of their implementation, I recommend to obtain predictions of Czech money market yield curve dynamics using GP model which allows existence of negative interest rates. This analysis also contains a statistical test for validating the predictive power of each model and information on other tests. Berkowitz test rejects a hypothesis of accurate predictions for each model. However, this fact is common in real data testing even when using relatively good model. This fact is especially caused by difficult fulfilment of test conditions in real world. To my knowledge, such an analysis of the predictive power of selected interest rate models moreover in the Czech financial market environment has not been published yet. The last goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to obtaining pre- dictions of Czech government bonds risk premium dynamics. I define this risk premium as a difference between government bond yields and fixed rate of CZK IRS with the same length. I apply the GP model to describe the dynamics of this indicator of the Czech Republic credit risk. In order to obtain a time series of the risk premium which are necessary for estimation of GP model parameters I firstly estimate yield curves of Czech government bonds using Svensson model for each trading day since 2005. Resulting si- mulations of risk premium show that the GP model predicts the real development of risk premiums of all maturities relatively well. Hence, the proposed approach is suitable for modeling of Czech Republic credit risk based on the use of information extracted from financial markets. I have not registered proposed approach to risk premium modeling moreover in the Czech financial market environment in other publications.
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Application of Monte Carlo simulations in banking
Boruta, Matěj ; Teplý, Petr (advisor) ; Fučík, Vojtěch (referee)
Currently, banking is exposed to huge market risks. One of those risks is occurrence of negative interest rates in the EU. Nowadays, it is important to use sophisticated and modern measurement tools and approaches to measure and manage banking risks. One of those methods is Monte Carlo simulation. This bachelor thesis is aimed at analysis and prediction of 3-month maturity Prague Interest Offer Rate (PRIBOR) for 3, 6 and 12 months with using Monte Carlo simulations. It was found that this method is suitable for prediction market variables with low volatility. If anybody uses this method, it is necessity to have in mind all pitfalls and assumptions, that this method includes, as an adequate random generated number of scenarios, approximation of correct probability distribution, independence of dataset and not least, as far as possible, to focus on factors generating randomness of market variable and not the prices, that express rather consequences of randomness than its cause. Further, the Monte Carlo prediction was compared with prognosis of the Czech Nation Bank and it was found that Monte Carlo prediction is more accurate for short term predictions. 12-month prediction of Monte Carlo simulation discovered also possible occurrence of negative interest rate at 0,05% level of probability in compare to the Czech National Bank prognosis, where was no negative interest rate predicted.
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Global Economy Outlook - December 2016
Česká národní banka
Global Economic Outlook presents the regular monthly overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. In this issue, we also focus on a major phenomenon of the day: the migration of people into Europe, and Germany in particular. In this context, we present an analysis of the effect of the increased number of refugees on the German labour market. We show, among other things, that the incoming migrants will be far from enough to cover the demand for labour in Germany and also that they will compete more with workers arriving in search of jobs in Germany from Central and Eastern European countries than with German citizens.
Fulltext:  PDF; PDF
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Global Economy Outlook - November 2016
Česká národní banka
The November issue of Global Economic Outlook presents the regular monthly overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. In this issue, we also focus on the relationship between the Brent crude oil price and the US dollar exchange rate over the last ten years. The results show that the inverse relationship between the Brent price and the nominal effective exchange rate of the dollar still applies, helping dampen fluctuations in the dollar price of oil in “non-dollar” economies.
Fulltext: PDF; PDF
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Global Economy Outlook - October 2016
Česká národní banka
The October issue of Global Economic Outlook presents the regular monthly overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. In this issue, we focus in detail on the industrial producer price index (PPI), which, alongside the consumer price index (CPI), is a key indicator of inflation on the production side of the economy. We also explain the specifics of the PPI, especially in the EU, and present a model simulation indicating the sensitivity of the PPI to a change in oil prices.
Fulltext: PDF; PDF
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Determination of content substances for selected species and varieties of roses.
Slavíková, Eva ; Sus, Josef (advisor) ; Súkeníková, Tereza (referee)
This bachelor's work is focused on comparing the most significant content substance, vitamin C, in fruits of chosen rose kinds species and varieties. Herbal products are often seen by people as products of "second choice", when failure of allopathic treatment occurs, which is focused especially on suppressing symptoms of illness, but it ignores health of the human body as whole. That's why are herbal products often alternative for therapy of chronic diseases. The base of this work is extensive literary research and results of laboratory measurings. Literary part of this work includes description of botanical classification of rose plants. There is stated basic characteristic of individual rose species and their morphological features. In following chapters is composed overview of effective substances in rose fruits and their effect on human health. In practical part of this work are included results of laboratory tests for determining ascorbic acid content for chosen samples of rose species and it also includes results of weighing and measuring of fruit samples of chosen rose species. There are also stated chosen rose species and shortly their origin and description, in the beginning of practical part. For practical part were chosen samples of species. Results of practical part are compiled into statistic tables and graphs and it confirms high content of ascorbic acid in rose fruits. This content is in range of cca 300 - 900 mg.100 g-1. Due to growing interest in alternative treatment options and "clean" natural product, it can be assumed, that many plants of Rosaceae family will keep its place in treatment practice. Those plants will be used not only for treatment of acute and chronic diseases, but also for cosmetic products production, thanks to its large effects and process options.
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Antioxidant, anti-proliferative and immunomodulatory effect of fruits, vegetables and mushrooms in vitro
Doskočil, Ivo ; Havlík, Jaroslav (advisor) ; Orsák, Matyáš (referee)
Recently there has been an increasing interest in discovering of new species of plants and mushrooms which have antioxidant or anti proliferative activity. The interest is caused by the fact that these species have medicinal and food utilization. These properties of plants and mushrooms can be used when dealing with many diseases which may be connected with oxidative stress (inflammatory bowel disease, cardiovascular disease, hypertension, and tumour disease, etc.).
The thesis propounds characteristics of in vitro antioxidant and anti proliferative activity of 19 types of juices and 28 methanol extracts of fruits and vegetables, which are common parts of a diet. In the thesis there are also characteristics of 13 ethanol extracts of edible mushrooms of the order of Polypore (Popyporales). Antioxidant activity was quantifie by 2, 2 diphenyl 1 picrylhydrazyl (DPPH), oxygen radical absorbance capacity (ORAC), and inhibition of nitric oxide (NO) production. Cytotoxicity was measured by MTT (3 (4,5 dimethylthiazol 2 yl) 2,5 diphenyltetrazolium bromide. Immunomodulatory activity was determined by an assay of phagocytic activity of human neutrophil granulocytes. Further a total phenolic content (TPC) and total beta glucan content were investigated; these are considered to be the potentially active constituents participating in mentioned activities.
From the obtained results it is evident that juices (TPC = 1603.2 mg GAE/L; ORAC = 438.5 umol TE/g)
and a bilberry (Vaccinium myrtillus) fruit extract (ORAC 836.6 umol TE/g; DPPH = 404.6 umol TE/g) showed
the highest antioxidant activity of all tested samples of fruits and vegetables. Capsicum (Capsicum L.)
juices (TPC = 642.1 mg GAE/L; ORAC = 127.9 umol TE/g) and a radish (Raphanus sativus L.) extract
(ORAC 724.5 umol TE/g; DPPH = 52.2 umol TE/g) also proved to have the high values of antioxidant activity. From the tested fruits and vegetables the following inhibited to produce a nitric oxide: onion (Allium cepa L) juices (lowered the NO production by 57%), tangerine juices (Citrus reticulata Blanco)(by 52%), broccoli (Brassica oleracea var. botrytis italic) extract (by 21%), and orange (Citrus sinensis Pers.) extract (by 10%). Concerning edible
mushrooms, Lentinus tigrinus (Bull.) Fr. (TPC = 216.2 umol GAE/g of extract), Ganoderma lucidum (Curtis) P. Kras (TPC = 257.9 umol GAE/g of extract), and Royoporus badius (Pers.) A.B. De (TPC = 257.8 umol GAE/g of extract) presented the highest phenolic content. Sparassis crispa (Wulfen) Fr. (117.4 mg/g of extract) had the highest content of beta glucan. Substantial effect on phagocytic activity of granulocytes was noticed in connection with Neolentinus lepideus (Fr.) Redhead & Ginns, Polyporus squamosus (Huds.) Fr., and S. crispa. In connection with the latter of mentioned mushrooms, a moderate inhibitory effect towards HT 29 human colorectal adenocarcinoma cell line
(IC50 = 107 ug/ml of extract) was noticed.
The results indicate that the tested plants and mushrooms can be beneficial when reducing the negative effects of oxidative stress. The oxidative stress has been recognized as a contributing factor to a whole range of diseases and the reduction of the oxidative stress may lead to the decrease in the possibility of the diseases´ progression. The results show the possible favourable effects on the human health. When evaluating the results, the following fact should be taken into consideration; the in vitro tests and screenings are considered to be the first phase of systematic research of the effects and serve for the choice of respondents for further detailed studies.
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