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Information sources of parliamentary election voters in 2021
Kovaliková, Anežka ; Jirků, Jan (advisor) ; Just, Petr (referee)
This thesis concentrates on the relationship between voting preferences and media consumption. Its first hypothesis is based on the assumption that media affect voting preferences and thus voters of different political subjects employ different media consumption behavior. The second hypothesis states that the voters of anti-system parties are more likely to consume disinformation media. In its theoretical part, the text explains the concepts of disinformation, agenda-setting, disinformation media, filter bubble, confirmation bias and anti-system party. The research is carried out via a survey distributed through Facebook social groups and focuses on eight political subjects present in the parliament before or after the Czech parliamentary elections in October 2021. Second half of the thesis focuses on the results of the survey and their discussion. It is divided into chapters, each presenting the results for individual political subjects. Last of the chapters combines all the data and puts them into perspective.
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Political and regional differentiation of Serbia in the case of the entering EU
Cvetkovićová, Katarina ; Tomeš, Jiří (advisor) ; Martínek, Jiří (referee)
The aim of this bachelor thesis is to analyze the regional differentiation in Serbia with regards to the question of the country's accession to the European Union (EU). The analysis is based on a voting preferences of pro-European or Eurosceptic political parties and leaders. The prerequisite is a north-south polarization of these preferences correlating with socio-economic maturity of the region. Thesis uses electoral geography to determine if this correlation exists and if so, how stable it is in the time period. The first part of the thesis discusses a general theory of regional differentiation of electoral results, the emergence and development of nationalism in Serbia and Serbia's relations and cooperation with the EU. The second part of the thesis attempts to provide an objective image of the Serbian political scene, its electoral history and main political affairs. These two parts, in which the thematic literature is discussed, serve as a theoretical framework for the third part of the thesis which deals with the analysis of electoral results in socio-economic frame and also contains a discussion of the results of correlation. Key words Serbia, electoral preferences, regional differentiation, European Union
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Media and pre-election polls:quantitative analysis of the Czech major daily newspapers before parliamentary elections in 2010
Kálalová, Kateřina ; Kunštát, Daniel (advisor) ; Škodová, Markéta (referee)
The thesis titled Media and Pre-Election Polls: Quantitative Analysis of the Czech Major Daily Newspapers before Parliamentary Elections in 2010, deals with the manner in which the media grasp and process the results of opinion polls focused on the theme of elections, namely pre-election polls. The attitude of the author toward this topic is based on the agenda setting theory, which assumes that the media can, to some extent, set the topics and thus determine how (and that) the audience think about them. In the case of publication of pre- election surveys can therefore media, to some, but hardly detectable extent, influence the citizens-voters. For this reason it is important to focus on how exactly the mass media work with the statistic data and how they make them available to the wide public. Media coverage of these data should be complete and clear in order to prevent misinterpretation and for the data to be correctly handled. Through the quantitative content analysis of media outputs (in total 74 articles) from the five most popular Czech daily newspapers in the period January to May 2010 it was researched if the media work with pre-election polls results properly. Based on the analysis and its results, the recommendations were concluded for the situation to be improved.
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Methodological Optimization of the Median Research Agency's Likely Voter Model Based on Findings from Czech Household Panel Study
Kunc, Michal ; Buchtík, Martin (advisor) ; Soukup, Petr (referee)
The aim of this graduate thesis is proposing an optimization of the likely voter model parameter values utilized by Median (research agency) based on secondary analysis of data from the third wave and post-election follow-up of the Czech Household Panel Study 2017 and the Median omnibus survey. The theoretical chapter presents selected aspects of the analyzed likely voter model parameters. Secondary data analysis confirms hypotheses regarding the relationships of: 1) voter turnout, prior voting behavior and the intent to vote, 2) pre-election voting preferences and actual voting behavior, 3) reported prior voting behavior and time elapsed since the prior election. Hypotheses are confirmed, and analysis results are utilized in construction of an optimized likely voter model. This model's results are then compared to the results of four currently or formerly published likely voter models (MEDIAN, CVVM2017, CVVM2018, KANTAR), all computed using an identical dataset (September/October 2017 Median omnibus survey). Based on prior-set comparison criteria, the proposed model has the highest ranking out of all the compared models. Areas of future research proposed, namely exploring the relationship between prior voting behavior misreporting and voting preference trends, in accordance with cognitive...
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Interpretation of Pre-election Polls in The Czech Printed Dailies
Tučková, Kateřina ; Nečas, Vlastimil (advisor) ; Vochocová, Lenka (referee)
The diploma thesis Interpretation of Pre-election Polls in The Czech Printed Dailies studyies the ways in which media portrays data from election polls as part of thier news service. The thesis draws from theories of media effects, the research of which indicates a possible influence of media content on the formation of public opinion or even voting behaviour. For this reason, it maz be expected that the media present data in line with certain standards. However, in the Czech Republic, there is no code of conduct that would formulate such requirements. This leads to an ongoing struggle between the research agencies who supply such data and the media who present it to the public, where each party judges the content's quality by different measures. Some of the often criticised errors include misinterpretation of data and an insufficient explanation of the research's background. This paper uses quantitative content analysis to examine 154 articles from Czech printed journals across the three pre-election periods (2010, 2013, 2017) with the aim of determining in which form the results of pre- election polls are presented, and if all necessary data are added. The final analysis looks at the data as a whole as well as examining the trendlines during the studied time period. In conclusion, it evaluates...
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Methodological Optimization of the Median Research Agency's Likely Voter Model Based on Findings from Czech Household Panel Study
Kunc, Michal ; Buchtík, Martin (advisor) ; Soukup, Petr (referee)
The aim of this graduate thesis is proposing an optimization of the likely voter model parameter values utilized by Median (research agency) based on secondary analysis of data from the third wave and post-election follow-up of the Czech Household Panel Study 2017 and the Median omnibus survey. The theoretical chapter presents selected aspects of the analyzed likely voter model parameters. Secondary data analysis confirms hypotheses regarding the relationships of: 1) voter turnout, prior voting behavior and the intent to vote, 2) pre-election voting preferences and actual voting behavior, 3) reported prior voting behavior and time elapsed since the prior election. Hypotheses are confirmed, and analysis results are utilized in construction of an optimized likely voter model. This model's results are then compared to the results of four currently or formerly published likely voter models (MEDIAN, CVVM2017, CVVM2018, KANTAR), all computed using an identical dataset (September/October 2017 Median omnibus survey). Based on prior-set comparison criteria, the proposed model has the highest ranking out of all the compared models. Areas of future research proposed, namely exploring the relationship between prior voting behavior misreporting and voting preference trends, in accordance with cognitive...
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Political and regional differentiation of Serbia in the case of the entering EU
Cvetkovićová, Katarina ; Tomeš, Jiří (advisor) ; Martínek, Jiří (referee)
The aim of this bachelor thesis is to analyze the regional differentiation in Serbia with regards to the question of the country's accession to the European Union (EU). The analysis is based on a voting preferences of pro-European or Eurosceptic political parties and leaders. The prerequisite is a north-south polarization of these preferences correlating with socio-economic maturity of the region. Thesis uses electoral geography to determine if this correlation exists and if so, how stable it is in the time period. The first part of the thesis discusses a general theory of regional differentiation of electoral results, the emergence and development of nationalism in Serbia and Serbia's relations and cooperation with the EU. The second part of the thesis attempts to provide an objective image of the Serbian political scene, its electoral history and main political affairs. These two parts, in which the thematic literature is discussed, serve as a theoretical framework for the third part of the thesis which deals with the analysis of electoral results in socio-economic frame and also contains a discussion of the results of correlation. Key words Serbia, electoral preferences, regional differentiation, European Union
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Media and pre-election polls:quantitative analysis of the Czech major daily newspapers before parliamentary elections in 2010
Kálalová, Kateřina ; Kunštát, Daniel (advisor) ; Škodová, Markéta (referee)
The thesis titled Media and Pre-Election Polls: Quantitative Analysis of the Czech Major Daily Newspapers before Parliamentary Elections in 2010, deals with the manner in which the media grasp and process the results of opinion polls focused on the theme of elections, namely pre-election polls. The attitude of the author toward this topic is based on the agenda setting theory, which assumes that the media can, to some extent, set the topics and thus determine how (and that) the audience think about them. In the case of publication of pre- election surveys can therefore media, to some, but hardly detectable extent, influence the citizens-voters. For this reason it is important to focus on how exactly the mass media work with the statistic data and how they make them available to the wide public. Media coverage of these data should be complete and clear in order to prevent misinterpretation and for the data to be correctly handled. Through the quantitative content analysis of media outputs (in total 74 articles) from the five most popular Czech daily newspapers in the period January to May 2010 it was researched if the media work with pre-election polls results properly. Based on the analysis and its results, the recommendations were concluded for the situation to be improved.
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Political-business cycle in Czech Republic
Němeček, Petr ; Petrášek, František (advisor) ; Pícl, Michal (referee)
This diploma thesis focuses on political-business cycle which is a theme frequently omitted in discussions about economic situation in the Czech Republic. Theoretical part of the work will provide readers with the topic of political-business cycle and its basic models which will serve as a support to the statistical research in the analytical part. Is fiscal policy in hands of Czech politicians an efficient tool to manipulate voters? The aim of the work is to answer this question and thus give a detailed look of political-business cycle on example of four regular electoral periods of Czech Parliament. To reach the goal of diploma thesis, we used regressive analysis to examine hypothesis if the date of elections influences certain folders of income and expenses of government budget. This hypothesis was not accepted on the significance level of 5 per cent. The reasons are mainly short time series of tested indicators.
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