|
|
Is inflation in Ghana a monetary phenomenon?
Addo, Grace Naa Kalei
ABSTRACT Inflation is a problematic macroeconomic factor that affects most economies, in-cluding Ghana. Inconsistent policies have made it difficult for policymakers to achieve target inflation rates, leading to negative impacts on living standards. Infla-tion is a key indicator of a country's economic performance, and Ghana has been severely impacted by excessive inflation. The aim of the research was to develop more accurate models for predicting inflation in Ghana by assessing various econ-ometric techniques and identifying key macroeconomic signs. Multiple Regression Analysis and Walk-through analysis were applied to secondary data obtained from Ghana to make inflation predictions. The findings revealed an inverse relationship between GDP growth and inflation over the long term, but a direct relationship in the short term. Government expenditure had a negative influence on inflation in the short term but a positive impact over the long term. Neither broad money growth nor real effective exchange rate had a significant impact on inflation. The study also revealed a substantial upward trend in broad money and significant influencing fac-tors in the BOG policy rate, inflation rate, and GDP growth rate. The real effective exchange rate and government expenditure had no significant influencing factors.
|
|
|
Evaluation of China's FOREX policy: equilibrium exchange rate perspective
Qiriga, ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Baxa, Jaromír (referee)
Master Thesis: Evaluation of China's FOREX Policy: Equilibrium Exchange Rate Perspective. Author: - Qiriga Supervisor: Ing. Vilém Semerák M.A., PhD. Academic Year: 2018/2019 Abstract This thesis investigated China's foreign exchange policy from the equilibrium exchange rate perspective, using the Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate model with multiregional dimension. The core question is whether Renminbi is misaligned (over- or undervalued) from 2001 to 2017. The result indicated that the bilateral nominal exchange rate of Renminbi against the US dollar was undervalued from 2002 to 2013, reaching a peak of 34.2% in 2007. In the rest of the years, it was overvalued slightly against the US dollar. As to the real effective exchange rate (REER) of Renminbi, it was overvalued in the first three years of the 2000s, then went through the period of undervaluation of 9 years, with a smaller degree compared with the bilateral exchange rate. It is shown that from 2013 the REER of Renminbi had been overvalued for several years until it was undervalued again in 2017 by 2%. Keywords FEER, Renminbi, exchange rate misalignment, multinational model, real effective exchange rate
|
|
|
The Current Account and Balance of Payments: Implications towards the Real Exchange Rate, GDP Growth, Asset Prices and Stability
Clarson, Daniel ; Čech, František (advisor) ; Baxa, Jaromír (referee)
The Current Account and Balance of Payments: Implications towards the Real Exchange Rate, GDP Growth, Asset Prices and Stability Abstract in English In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, large global imbalances among countries' current account have been cited as a possible cause. The real exchange rate emerges as a key policy tool among countries within the research literature and in practice to manage a country's Balance of Payments indicators, despite mixed evidence. In this master thesis, we will construct a vector error correction model for cointegrating relationships utilizing the Johansen's test, using time series data for the US, UK, and Australia for the period 1973-2018. We examined the relationships between the real exchange rate, the current account, the financial account, net reserves, the interest rate, and openness to trade as well as employing Granger Causality tests. In the US, we found relationships between net reserves and both the current account and the real exchange rate. In the UK, the interest rate and the real exchange rate have a cointegrating relationship. In both the UK and Australia, we found a cointegrating relationship with the real exchange rate and current account. We examine the various theoretical and practical approaches towards viewing the Balance of Payments...
|
|
|
Evaluation of China's FOREX policy: equilibrium exchange rate perspective
Qiriga, ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Baxa, Jaromír (referee)
Master Thesis: Evaluation of China's FOREX Policy: Equilibrium Exchange Rate Perspective. Author: - Qiriga Supervisor: Ing. Vilém Semerák M.A., PhD. Academic Year: 2018/2019 Abstract This thesis investigated China's foreign exchange policy from the equilibrium exchange rate perspective, using the Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate model with multiregional dimension. The core question is whether Renminbi is misaligned (over- or undervalued) from 2001 to 2017. The result indicated that the bilateral nominal exchange rate of Renminbi against the US dollar was undervalued from 2002 to 2013, reaching a peak of 34.2% in 2007. In the rest of the years, it was overvalued slightly against the US dollar. As to the real effective exchange rate (REER) of Renminbi, it was overvalued in the first three years of the 2000s, then went through the period of undervaluation of 9 years, with a smaller degree compared with the bilateral exchange rate. It is shown that from 2013 the REER of Renminbi had been overvalued for several years until it was undervalued again in 2017 by 2%. Keywords FEER, Renminbi, exchange rate misalignment, multinational model, real effective exchange rate
|
|
|
Price Level Convergence and Real Exchange Rate Determinants in the New Member States of the European Union
Pospíšilová, Andrea ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Princ, Michael (referee)
Differences in price levels as well as inflation rates among countries have been subject of discussion for a long time. More than the actual levels, however, the question of determinants of price levels in time and a possible convergence is key for the new member states with respect to the Maastricht criteria. The dynamics of price levels is crucial, and many suggestions have been put forward to explain the observed trends and changes. This thesis focuses on the determinants of relative price level, and hence real exchange rate, developments in the new member states of the EU and employs a regression analysis to examine their change in time. As most of the countries in focus are transition economies, structural variables are also included among the independent variables. We find that the Balassa- Samuelson effect is key to explaining real exchange rate developments as the effect of productivity differential has been significant over the whole period examined. However, in the recent years, marked by the onset of the crisis, other factors, such as the structure of trade and Euro area membership, have become more prominent.
|
|
|
Effect of the exchange rate CZK on the amount of revenues from toll and time-toll systems on the roads in the Czech Republic
Raštica, Marek ; Stroukal, Dominik (advisor) ; Potužák, Pavel (referee)
This thesis examines the impact of the real exchange rate on the amount of revenues from a system of tolled and time tolled roads in the Czech Republic in the years 1999-2014. This effect is investigated on monthly data using regression analysis on two systems of tolled roads separately, system of tolled roads and system of time-tolled roads. Based on available dataset was shown a statistically significant negative effect of the real exchange rate on toll revenues in the system of tolled roads. In the case of time-tolled roads system was demonstrated negative effect of real exchange rate on time-toll revenues, but this effect is questionable, since the influence has been demonstrated only in a model with limited explanatory power.
|
|
|
Analysis of the effect of natural resources extraction on the economy: Dutch disease effect in Norway and Venezuela between 1973 - 2013
Sachunský, Jaromír ; Doležal, Ondřej (advisor) ; Ševčíková, Michaela (referee)
The aim of this bachelor thesis is to examine the impact of the consequences of the Dutch disease effect on the economy of Norway and Venezuela between 1973 -- 2013. How is it possible that Norway was able to accumulate the oil revenues in the largest sovereign wealth fund in the world while Venezuela has been long economically troubles? The introductory part defines the theoretical framework of the Dutch disease, the usual course outline and the most common consequences. While Norway serves as a textbook example of a country that managed to honourably overcome the disease effects Venezuela, on the contrary, cannot emerge of its consequences. In the last part of the thesis empirical comparisons of selected data are made, which further confirm the theoretical foundations.
|
|
|
Sources of Asymmetric Shocks: The Exchange Rate or Other Culprits?
Skořepa, Michal ; Komárek, Luboš
We analyze and quantify the determinants of asymmetric shocks showing up in the form of medium-term real exchange rate (RER) changes. First, we discuss sources of asymmetric shocks causing exchange rate variability and the role of the RER as a shock generator. Second, we use data for 21 advanced and late-transition economies to gauge the extent to which medium-term bilateral real exchange rate variability can be explained by various fundamental factors. Using Bayesian model averaging, we find that out of 22 factors under consideration, four types of dissimilarities within a given pair of economies are likely to be included in the true model: dissimilarities as regards (i) financial development, (ii) per capita income growth, (iii) central bank independence, and (iv) the structure of the economy. A regression based on these four factors indicates that these factors explain about one third of the behavior of the three-year RER variability for the whole sample and almost half of the behavior of the three-year RER variability for the RERs involving specifically the euro. The remaining part of the total variability represents an estimate of the influence of the exchange rate market itself (together with the influence of fundamental price level or nominal exchange rate determinants not captured by the regressors used).
Fulltext:  PDF
|
|
| |
|
|
Global Imbalance of Savings and Investments and US Current Account Dynamics
Ševec, Vladimír ; Hurník, Jaromír (advisor) ; Chytilová, Helena (referee)
The aim of this thesis is to find a reason why the US current account is in deficit, which is in contradiction of theoretical expectation. Prevailing discusion is about savings glut and defects in monetary policy. In our opinion both sides ignore China`s rising influence and real exchange rate. Balassa-Samuelson`s effect predict real exchange rate appreciation in converging economies, as long as their real GDP grows. Analysis of real exchange rate of Renminbi shows contradiction with Balassa-Samuelson effect, which is attributed to conditions on Chinese labour market. Chinese internal imbalance has impacts on global economy and nonappreciating real exchange rate of Renminbi deforming international trade is one of the factors that causes US current account deficit.
|
guest ::
