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Statisitcal models of the renewable energy market
Kozma, Petr ; Marek, Luboš (advisor) ; Coufal, Jan (referee) ; Hronová, Stanislava (referee) ; Janáček, Kamil (referee)
An efficient application and development of renewable energy sources is one of the most important contribution to the energetic balance of the human society. Anyhow, statistical model of the renewable energy market, which would fundamentally explain relevant economical rules related to these perspective energetic resources, is not clearly known up to now. Nevertheless, the relevant statistical data concerning application of solar energy (photovoltaic and thermo-solar heating) are available for the last twenty years. Based on the economic models, statistical data concerning sales of photovoltaic models and thermo-solar collectors sales have been analysed in this work. It has been shown that the model of constant elasticity predicts an exponential increase which will slow down when a certain level of annual cumulative sales was reached. The model of constant elasticity was found to be successful to interpret past sales data. In the approach of variable elasticity model the parameter of the elasticity has been modified as a function of variables such as market volume, price and time through the statistical evaluation. It enabled to calculate initial, saturation and competitive market conditions, as well. Whereas the constant elasticity demand model describes exponential growth of sales and installations, which was characteristic for the beginning of the application of these renewable resources of energy, the variable elasticity demand model describes a more realistic situation, where cumulative sales either increase or decrease and prices vary subsequently. Simple growth model of unlimited demand based on the growing sales is not realistic and could not be feasible in the long term. The market elasticity could be understood as a real economical parameter representing percentual market increase or decrease at a given time; in the variable demand elasticity model, the constant elasticity is replaced by a function of a market volume, price and time. In this case, we can estimate model parameters for the different market conditions: growth, saturation and decrease. The function representing the capital adequacy in the generalized market model has also been deliberated. Statistical models have been used to determine cumulative sales and market prices of photovoltaic modules and thermo-solar collectors. Moreover, model parameters have been used for the calculation of the realized photovoltaic and thermo solar projects' capital adequacy on the renewable energy market. By using model parameters, renewable energy market forecast up to 2020 has been estimated. We have used generalized market model to credibly estimate future renewable energy market until 2020; as well as extend model parameterization on other resources of renewable energy (water and wind, geothermal sources, biomass) and set prices of energy produced from these renewable sources. Potential energetic savings have been estimated for households (apartments and private houses), who can be relevant consumers of energy from renewable sources. We have performed statistical findings on randomly selected files, where we have reached a real energy consumption, to prove this. This research allowed us to perform a real estimate of a renewable energy contribution to the total energy balance. We have successfully proved that linearly growing capital adequacy function, with an annual growth between 2.5% and 3.0%, is reflecting the renewable energy market sufficiently and is fully in line with an average growth of the total energy consumption. Renewable energy share on the total energy balance will grow substantially to reach a level of 15% in 2015 on the world market and a level of 8% in the Czech Republic for the same period with a perspective to reach a level of 11% in 2020 respectively. Assuming this level of renewable energy on the total production will lead to a decrease of CO2 emissions by three million of tones in 2015 and by four million of tones in 2020. Final reach of this status quo is fully predicted by our statistical model for renewable energy market.
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Financial evaluation of investment into photovoltaic panels
Volech, Miroslav ; Schönfeld, Jaroslav (advisor) ; Smrčka, Luboš (referee)
This paper aims to map process and financial aspects of electric power producing facility from solar radiation from view of small investor, a private person. For this purpose are used methods common in business sphere. Next goal is to determine the real return of investment and to describe changes between years 2010 and 2011 in relation to profitability. This study is not intended to evaluate ecological aspects related to photovoltaic technology.
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Business plan - Solar power plant
Dlouhá, Pavlína ; Srpová, Jitka (advisor) ; Matěnová, Alena (referee)
Renewable energy resources in the Czech Republic, especially photovoltaics, have experienced a great boom in the past few years. The investment in the photovoltaic plants has been and will be a very promising field for investors unless too many legislative barriers are adopted to make the investments unattractive. This diploma thesis therefore elaborates a real world business case of a solar power plant. Within the business case a sensitivity analysis is being made to evaluate the influences of external factors that may have a major impract on the effectiveness and returnability of the project. Conclusions made in the analysis help to make the desicion whether to realize or not to realize the project.
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Photovoltaic in the Czech Republic within the framework of EU energy policy
Ullrych, Radek ; Němcová, Ingeborg (advisor) ; Machytka, Daniel (referee)
Members of EU are being pushed by the EU energy policy to exploit renewable energy resources more and more. Energy generation from photovoltaic power-station has become in the Czech Republic one of the most discussed resource. The bachelor's thesis evaluates EU perspective on renewable resources and shows implementation of Europe guidelines into Czech legislative. The thesis also tries to find out what was the reason for massive investments into photovoltaic power-stations. The last part speaks about business plan of the company Jihospol a.s., which is the owner of photovoltaic power-station.
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Současnost a budoucnost fotovoltaiky v České Republice z pohledu velké energetické společnost
Burianová, Eva ; Jaklová, Martina L. (advisor) ; Kubín, Petr (referee)
Goal of this thesis is to analyse sequence of events that led to current situation on the solar market in Czech Republic. Based on this analysis, current situation and scenarios for the near future from the point of view of large power utility company are described. For this aim, analysis of macro-environment is employed and focuses in detail on legislative and technological factors. Definition of possible scenarios starts with the description of current situation of saturated market. Solar power plants are then presented as reasonable equity investment from the point of view of large power utility company. Assumptions and entry data are described and the investment is evaluated using the net present value evaluation tool. For chosen entry parameters, sensitivity analysis is performed. This thesis then defines the situation when electricity produced from solar irradiation becomes competitive with other conventional sources.
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Energy use of phytomass in the South Bohemia Region
NEJEDLÁ, Alice
This bachelor thesis focuses on energetic use of phytomass in the Southern Bohemia. There was identified real and potential production of biomass in the Czech Republic and in the Southern Bohemia. According to the information acquired from literature, internet and questionnairy research there was identified volume of use of energetic sources and biomass deliberately cultivated in Southern Bohemia for energetic use. The results of this research show that Czech Republic meets the commitment to cover 6% of energetic consumption by renewable energy source ? it even reached 8%. Southern Bohemia produces 4,5% of all renewable energy sources of the Czech republic. The research shows that there is a lack of biomass in the Czech Republic, that is why it must be produced by growing energy crops (PEP) and fast growing woods (RRD). Energy crops produces in the Czech Republic are: Sorrel Feed, Miscanthus Chinese, Knotweed, Reed Canary Grass, Hemp, Sorghum. As fast growing woods there are willows and poplars recommended. The most of the renewable energy sources in Southern Bohemia is represented by biomass and its combustion. Its potential is huge, mostly the waste of wood processing ? sawdust and wooden chips, is the most used fuel. Energetic use of biomass has a good perspective in Southern Bohemia. There is still unused waste from logging and straw in agricultural production. There is still hidden potential in growing energy crops and fast growing woods. The development is defended especially by economic reasons and state financial support.
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Is subvention program supporting production of electricity in photovoltaic plants in the Czech Republic efficient?
Vaniš, Miloš ; Mičúch, Marek (advisor) ; Zajíček, Miroslav (referee)
As a consequence of recent generous subvention program, supporting electricity production from renewable resources, number and size of installed capacity of the photovoltaic plants in the Czech Republic skyrocketed. Strikingly, using photovoltaic plants to reduce CO2 is the most expansive but paradoxically the most supported way to reduce emissions compared to alternative electricity production in the Czech Republic. Guaranteed producers' purchase price increases electricity prices for households and firms. Production of electricity in photovoltaic plants also encumber power transfer network. Purchase prices of electricity from photovoltaic plants were introduced to increase the share of electricity produced in photovoltaic plants on the overall consumption and to reduce CO2 emissions. Reducing CO2 emissions to stop climate change was the main reason for introducing photovoltaic subvention. Analysing the relationship between amount of CO2, number of photovoltaic plants and GDP on the data of selected countries showed that the production of electricity in a photovoltaic plants contributes nothing to CO2 reduction in short-term.
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Elaboration of Business Plan
Ondrák, Jan ; Dvořák, Jiří (advisor) ; Pirožek, Petr (referee)
This thesis is focused to create a project of photovoltaic power plant with energy output 1 MWp. Project should be realized in a land register of Lipnice nad Sázavou. Next target is identificatio of conditions for enterprising in energetics and renewable energy. Details are described in the branch of photovoltaics business. Part of thesis is focused to evaluation of feasibility, financial and administration obstacles include description of particular documents necessary for realization of the project. Other part of the thesis is focused to PESTEL analysis of corporate environment. There are described all aspects important for business activities in the field of photovoltaics. Thesis includes an economic analysis too. There are mentioned calculations of supposed economic progres during the 20 year. In this years redemption price is fixed in law. Unfortunatelly a changes are expect in next year. So these changes are took into account in calculations too.
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Valuation of effectiveness of constrution of photovoltaic power plant
Rákosník, Milan ; Sieber, Patrik (advisor) ; Marek, Miroslav (referee)
The main objective of this thesis is to provide management of specific company with valid information concerning intended investment in construction of a small photovoltaic power plant. Valuation of the investment is done using methods: payback period, discounted payback period, net present value, internal rate of return and profitability index. There is a comlete sensitivity analysis included in the thesis. Besides the valuation itself, the thesis provide also relevant information about the company, legal environment, czech and european renewable energy market and current state of the project.
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Photovoltaic's resources economy
Rožánek, Lukáš ; Horník, Tomáš (advisor) ; Nowak, Ondřej (referee)
This assignment aims on phenomenon of last years, soler energy and it's use, photovoltaic. The first part of this assignment is elaborated on theoretical base and specialized literature and it is focused mainly on explanation of photovoltaic, photovoltaic's cell, electro energetic expressions etc. Further on the first part describes specific areas contextual with use of photovoltaic at present, as are legislation or system of support etc. The second part on the contrary to the first part deals with practical study aims on build-up and operation of solar power station. In this part of my assignment will be described all expenses, revenues and also cash flow. On the basis of a few investment criterion will be advised possibilities of it's investing with using loan capital or equity capital. At the end this assignment evaluate subject of photovoltaic's development of late years and it's influence on future of electro energetic, acceptableness of investment to this branch of business, height of return of investment and payback period as well.
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