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Optimization of investment decisions in international trade
Gondeková, Tatiana ; Taušer, Josef (advisor) ; Kopa, Miloš (referee)
In this thesis, a portfolio optimization with integer variables which influence optimal assets allocation in domestic as well as in international environment, is studied. At the beginning with basic terms, assets and portfolio background, incentives of portfolio creation, fields of portfolio application and portfolio management is dealt. Following the characteristics of assets and portfolios (expected return, risk, liquidity), which are used by investors to value their properties, are introduced. Next the mean-risk models are derived for the measures of risk - variance, Value at Risk, Conditional Value at Risk and prepared for a practical application. Heuristics implemented in Matlab and standard algorithms of software GAMS are used for solving problems of the portfolio optimization. At the end optimization methods are applied on real financial data and an outputs are compared.
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Models of inflation and its volatility in CZ
Bisová, Sára ; Hušek, Roman (advisor) ; Pelikán, Jan (referee)
This paper focuses on analysing and modelling inflation and its dynamics in Czech Republic applying a special kind of econometric models. Firstly economic theory of inflation is mentioned - fundamental terms, measuring methods of inflation, the way Czech national bank is monitoring the inflation and obviously a short summary of historical evolution of inflation in Czech economy. In the second part of this paper two econometric concepts of modelling time series are introduced - vector autoregression models (VAR models) and volatility models, concretely ARCH and GARCH models. In connection with the VAR models, Granger causality, impulse response functions, cointegration and error correction models are described. The empirical part includes application of selected models on real time series of chosen macroeconomic indicators. The estimation outputs are interpreted and forecasts are implemented. The quality of chosen econometric models for modelling inflation in Czech Republic is discussed.
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Simulation predictions of the Czech economy
Vejdělková, Dita ; Hušek, Roman (advisor) ; Formánek, Tomáš (referee)
The thesis is composed of three main parts. The first part is theoretical and I deal here with economic relationships between macroeconomic magnitudes. Second part dedicated to the econometric theory of prognosis follows, in which I deal with different types of prognoses and prediction methods used at present. In the third, practical, part my intended aim is to create the best possible models of relations between fundamental macroeconomic magnitudes, using real Czech economy data, and to make simulation predictions of these magnitudes based on acquired models while utilising scenario analysis. First, I deal with choice of MSE and VAR models. Then follows the estimate of particular models and validation of prognostic capabilities of particular models for static and dynamic simulation. I conclude with elaboration of macroeconomic magnitudes prognosis while using scenario analysis.
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Application of Value at Risk method on market risk management
Vostatek, Jan ; Witzany, Jiří (advisor) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee)
The bachelor's thesis is focused on the Value at Risk method which is widely used for management of market risk. Value at Risk is put in the whole risk management framework and it is explained its application on the two of three main ways of calculation. The thesis also deals with the role of Value at Risk in regulatory rules of European Union and possible future development of market risk regulation of financial institutions. Some chapters of the thesis describe the application of Value at Risk on economic capital allocation and setting limits on trading desks. At the end of the thesis Value at Risk is deeply evaluated in respect of all relevant information.
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qvantification of credit risk for the needs of assesment of economical capital and capital requirement
Rothová, Adriána ; Málek, Jiří (advisor)
The submitted diploma thesis deals with calculation of capital requirement according to New Basel Capital Accord and calculation of economical capital according to credit model CreditMetrics. The goal of the thesis is to submit hypothesis that level of capital requirement will be higher than economical capital. Analyses were undertaken on the bank loan portfolio made out of 5 corporate and another portfolio, which was gradually extended up to 1000 loans. 5 corporate loans were also examined by effects of correlation of assets and effects of recovery of assets.
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Transmission mechanism of Monetary Policy of the Federal Reserve System
Petříková, Eva ; Jílek, Josef (advisor) ; Potužák, Pavel (referee)
This thesis analyses the chief relations inside the transmission mechanism of the monetary policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve System during the period from 1955 to 2007. The theoretical part of the thesis describes the principles of the history of Federal Reserve and his monetary policy, the development of Fed's monetary policy and its transmission mechanism, the lags in the monetary policy and various theories which deal with try to explain the monetary policy relations. In the analytical part I focus on answering the most laid questions whether, how much and for how long do the nominal interest rates and monetary aggregates affect the real variables (mainly the real domestic product) of the United States. Next I focus on investigating the monetarist assumption of money neutrality in the long run. I also introduce Granger causality and Impulse and Responses investigations into proposed VAR model.
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Operačné riziko v bankách
Holá, Miroslava ; Dvořák, Petr (advisor) ; Tuček, Miroslav (referee)
Nové regulatórne pravidlá BASEL II, ktorých hlavným cieľom je zvýšiť bezpečnosť a stabilitu finančných systémov, posilniť konkurenciu medzi bankami a umožniť väčšiu rizikovú citlivosť definujú nový typ rizika, ktoré je potrebné pokryť dodatočným kapitálom - riziko operačné. BASEL II vymedzuje 3 prístupy (základný, štandardizovaný a pokročilý), ktoré je možné použiť k výpočtu regulatórneho kapitálu, potrebného na pokrytie strát vzniknutých v dôsledku realizácie operačného rizika. V prvej časti diplomovej práce je popísaný nový koncept bankovej regulácie, v časti druhej je vymedzený pojem operačné riziko a základné prístupy k jeho kvantifikácii. Tretia kapitola obsahuje návrh zjednodušeného teoretického modelu, ktorý umožní kapitálovú požiadavku na pokrytie operačného rizika kvantifikovať.
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