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Repealing NAFTA: The impact on international trade with focus on Mexico
Kolář, Daniel ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Cazachevici, Alina (referee)
The North American Free Trade Agreement came into force in 1994 after long and emotive discussions. When Donald Trump became the US president in 2016, its future became uncertain, which motivates this paper to attempt to quantify the impact of its repeal. To do that, it uses a standard GTAP general equilibrium model and models an increase of intra-NAFTA tariffs to the derived MFN rates. It finds that NAFTA repeal would notably reduce intra-NAFTA trade and have a modest but negative impact on countries' welfare. NAFTA repeal is estimated to decrease Canadian GDP by 0.48%, US GDP by 0.39% and Mexican GDP by 0.06%. It would severely damage US-Mexico value chains and increase income inequality in Mexico by hurting unskilled workers more. Additional simulations are performed to control for variation in sectoral MFN rates and to observe the sensitivity of results to the choice of closure. The only positive of NAFTA repeal is that it might mitigate regional economic disparities in Mexico by damaging sectors concentrating their production near the US-Mexico border. 1
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Repealing NAFTA: The impact on international trade with focus on Mexico
Kolář, Daniel ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Cazachevici, Alina (referee)
The North American Free Trade Agreement came into force in 1994 after long and emotive discussions. When Donald Trump became the US president in 2016, its future became uncertain, which motivates this paper to attempt to quantify the impact of its repeal. To do that, it uses a standard GTAP general equilibrium model and models an increase of intra-NAFTA tariffs to the derived MFN rates. It finds that NAFTA repeal would notably reduce intra-NAFTA trade and have a modest but negative impact on countries' welfare. NAFTA repeal is estimated to decrease Canadian GDP by 0.48%, US GDP by 0.39% and Mexican GDP by 0.06%. It would severely damage US-Mexico value chains and increase income inequality in Mexico by hurting unskilled workers more. Additional simulations are performed to control for variation in sectoral MFN rates and to observe the sensitivity of results to the choice of closure. The only positive of NAFTA repeal is that it might mitigate regional economic disparities in Mexico by damaging sectors concentrating their production near the US-Mexico border. 1
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Meta-Analysis in International Economics
Havránek, Tomáš ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Stanley, Tom (referee) ; Wörz, Julia (referee) ; Vacek, Pavel (referee)
The dissertation consists of three papers presenting applications of meta-analysis in international economics. The first paper examines the effect of common currency on international trade, while the remaining two papers address the relationship between foreign investment and the productivity of domestic firms. An introductory chapter puts these applications into perspective. In the first application I present a meta-analysis of the effect of currency unions on trade, focusing on the euro area. I find strong publication bias in the literature. The estimated trade- promoting effect of currency unions other than the euro reaches more than 60%. In contrast, the euro's trade-promoting effect is insignificant when I correct for publication bias. The empirical literature on this topic shows signs of the so-called economics research cycle: the relation between the reported t-statistics and publication years has an inverse U-shaped form. During the last decade more than 100 researchers have examined productivity spillovers from foreign affiliates to local firms in upstream or downstream sectors. Yet results vary broadly across methods and countries. To examine these vertical spillovers in a systematic way, in the second application I collect 3,626 estimates of spillovers and review the literature quantitatively....
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Czech republic in international comparison: Selected indicators
Český statistický úřad
Publikace, kterou držíte v ruce, volně navazuje na předchozí vydání a dále je rozšiřuje. Jedná se především o srovnání České republiky se zeměmi Evropské unie, ale i dalšími státy světa formou tabulek a grafů s vybranými ukazateli. Hlavní z použitých skupin zemí jsou přesně vymezeny níže. Výběr dat se řídil v první řadě zájmem ze strany veřejnosti a také existencí a dostupností údajů v mezinárodních zdrojích
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Central bank monitoring - June 2011
Česká národní banka
Latest monetary policy developments at selected central banks and news. Spotlight: „Central bank communication“. Selected speech: „Challenges for monetary policy in EMU“ by Axel A. Weber (previous President of Deutsche Bundesbank).
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Central bank monitoring - September 2011
Česká národní banka
Latest monetary policy developments at selected central banks and news. Spotlight: „Spillover reports“ summarise the IMF’s new spillover reports examining the impacts of national economic policies on other countries in the region and globally. Selected speech: „The near- and longer-term prospect for the US economy“ by Ben S. Bernanke (Federal Reserve Chairman).
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The current state of economic development and economic policy of BRIC countries: Study 2.096
Cupalová, Marcela
Práce analyzuje specifika zemí skupiny BRIC (Brazílie, Rusko, Indie, Čína) a zabývá se konkrétně charakteristikou jednotlivých ekonomik a jejich vývoje, hospodářskou politikou jejich vlád i výhledy ekonomického vývoje do budoucna. Analyzuje také ekonomiky některých zemí (Jihoafrická republika, Turecko a Indonésie), které by mohly v budoucnosti do této skupiny patřit, a to jak vzhledem k dynamice jejich ekonomického vývoje, tak i díky nedávno zvýšenému hodnocení ratingových agentur. Práce se také pokouší identifikovat slabší a problematická místa všech výše zmíněných ekonomik, která by mohla jejich budoucí vývoj výrazněji poškodit.
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Economic research bulletin (2007, No.1)
Heřmánek, Jaroslav ; Hlaváček, Michal ; Jakubík, Petr ; Geršl, Adam ; Derviz, Alexis ; Podpiera, Jiří ; Šmídková, Kateřina
This issue of the CNB Research Bulletin looks at advances in the area of financial stability. Financial stability issues have attracted the attention of central banks in the last 10 years, mainly due to the rapid development of financial systems, the emergence of new financial products and the increased integration of the financial system across borders. These issues are extremely important for the Czech financial sector as well. One of the most widely used analytical tools for evaluating the stability of the financial sector is stress testing. The first article – by Jaroslav Heřmánek, Petr Jakubík and Michal Hlaváček – describes progress in this area as compared to earlier versions of stress testing. Progress has been made primarily in the areas of modelling credit risk and linking the stress testing to the CNB’s official macroeconomic forecast. The second and third articles – by Adam Geršl and by Alexis Derviz and Jiří Podpiera – are devoted to the issue of cross border-contagion in the Czech Republic. This problem is of great importance for the Czech Republic due to the strong foreign ownership of the Czech banking sector and the increasing crossborder flows of capital. The article by Adam Geršl uses macroeconomic data from BIS and compares the threats of cross-border contagion from other CEECs using a common creditor index. The article by Alexis Derviz and Jiří Podpiera presents the results of a sophisticated microeconomic model of lending contagion within multinational banking groups together with an empirical model of lending contagion using individual bank data from Bankscope.
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Hedging behaviour of Czech exporting firms
Čadek, Vlastimil ; Rottová, Helena ; Saxa, Branislav
The hedging behaviour of Czech exporting firms is analysed using questionnaire information and interviews with banks. Approximately 60% of the 184 firms surveyed hedge their FX exposures, and about 88% of their exports are hedged. Most exporters use natural hedging, i.e. they balance incoming and outgoing payments in foreign currency as well as foreign currency assets and liabilities.
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