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Role ekonomického sentimentu v ekonomice zemí EU
Simajchlová, Barbora
This master thesis deals with the identification and quantification of the relationship between selected economic indicators and economic sentiment in EU countries. The literature part is devoted to the definition of the relationship be-tween economic sentiment and selected economic indicators. Econometric methods, in particular VAR models, impulse-response analysis and Granger causality, have been used to identify and quantify the examined relationships. The results showed that ESI has some interdependence with the selected economic variables and can predict their development to some extent.
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Comparison of Monetary Policy in Case of FED and ECB
Ptáčník, Václav
The purpose of the thesis is to assess the impact of monetary policy upon economic performance in the euro area and The United States. The research focuses on differences in responsiveness of real output of economies on money supply and real interest Rate. The responsiveness is examined using Granger causality. The thesis proves whether money supply and real interest rate granger causes real output in the United States and euro area. Also monetary policy itself is described and compared using structural breaks in time series, Taylor rule, Galí rule and Mankiw rule. The empirical results are compared to each other and indicate that there has been differences in performing monetary policy in the United States and euro area; nevertheless responsiveness on monetary policy is in both economies very similar.
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Zadluženost veřejného sektoru ve vybraných zemích Evropské unie
Osičková, Eliška
This thesis analyzes the issue of fiscal imbalance in selected member states of European Union, namely, the first 12 states which officially introduced the Euro banknotes and coins in 2002. Empirical part of thesis analyzes the development of indebtedness in selected countries. The thesis also deals with the existence of causal relationship between public debt and economic growth in these countries via regression analysis of data panel for period 1995-2014 and 2008-2014. Sub-analysis of the thesis aims also at research of determinants of public debt in these countries.
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Vliv nabídky peněz na akciové indexy ve státech G8
Marcinová, Alexandra
The main aim of this diploma thesis is to evaluate the consequences of changes in the nominal money supply on selected G8 countries’ stock indices. The theoretical part explains the basic concepts of the financial markets, the criteria for classification of money aggregates, their composition and definition for individual G8 countries. The stock indices are also explained further in the part of this diploma thesis and the theoretical part is completed by previous empirical studies dealing with impact of the money supply on stock prices. The practical part focuses on examining the causal relationship between money supply and G8 stock indexes, where the correlation analysis and analysis of multivariate time series in the form of VAR models are used to achieve the goal.
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PPI and CPI: What is the relationship?
Červený, David ; Polák, Petr (advisor) ; Havránek, Tomáš (referee)
This bachelor thesis examines the relationship between the PPI and the CPI in the Czech Republic and the euro area. The primary method used in this thesis is the Granger causality test. Granger causality between the price indices is tested for in a bivariate model and also conditional on other variables describing the development of real GDP, a given monetary aggregate and wages. The most apparent conclusion that can be drawn from the empirical results indicates that the PPI Granger-causes the CPI in the Czech Republic and that there is no Granger causality going from the CPI to the PPI in the euro area. These results are consistent with conventional economic theory, which suggests a pass-through effect in the production chain going from producer prices to consumer prices.
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Stock Price Bubbles: Identification and the Effects of Monetary Policy
Koza, Oldřich ; Matějů, Jakub (advisor) ; Ryska, Pavel (referee)
This thesis studies bubbles in the U.S. stock market and how they are influenced by monetary policy pursued by the FED. Using Kalman filtering, the log-real price of S&P 500 is decomposed into a market-fundamentals component and a bubble component. The market-fundamentals component depends on the expected future dividends and the required rate of return, while the bubble component is treated as an unobserved state vector in the state-space model. The results suggest that, mainly in recent decades, the bubble has accounted for a substantial portion of S&P 500 price dynamics and might have played a significant role during major bull and bear markets. The innovation of this thesis is that it goes one step further and investigates the effects of monetary policy on both estimated components of S&P 500. For this purpose, the block- restriction VAR model is employed. The findings indicate that the decreasing interest rates have a significant short-term positive effect on the market-fundamentals component but not on the bubble. On the other hand, quantitative easing seems to have a positive effect on the bubble but not on the market-fundamentals component. Finally, the results suggest that the FED has not been successful at distinguishing between stock price movements due to fundamentals or the price misalignment.
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Granger's causality in financial time series
Marčiny, Jakub ; Voříšek, Jan (advisor) ; Lachout, Petr (referee)
The bachelor thesis discusses causality in multiple time series. Granger causality, along with its more general counterparts instantaneous causality and multistep causality, are utilized to study the mutual influence of the individual components of a multiple time series. These concepts are investigated within the framework of vector autoregressive models VAR. After the introduction of basic definitions and facts, the construction of VAR model is described including methods for order selection and verification. Subsequently, causal relations within the model are examined. Finally, empirical analysis of real financial market data is performed using tests procedures programmed with computational software Mathematica.
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The Inflation-Output Variability Relationship in the CEE countries: A Bivariate GARCH Model
Kubovič, Jozef ; Čech, František (advisor) ; Červinka, Michal (referee)
This thesis examines the output-variability relationship and causal relationships among the inflation, the output growth and their uncertainties for the Central and Eastern European region during the period of time that covers the economic crisis of 2008. We apply the bivariate GARCH(1,1) model with the constant conditional correlation covariance matrix to obtain conditional variances that proxy the two uncertainties and use Granger causality test to determine the causal effects among four variables. We come up with a number of interesting results. First, we did not find statistical evidence neither for the inflation-output variability relationship nor for the Phillips curve. Second, we uncovered support for the positive causal effect of the inflation on its uncertainty and negative causal effect for the reverse direction. Additionally, we also found some support for the indirect negative causal effect of the inflation on the output growth. These results support the policy of low and stable inflation in the countries. Finally, we showed that crisis has a significant impact on the results, changing the behaviour of conditional variances and causal effects among the variables. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Fiskální decentralizace a ekonomický růst v zemích Evropské unie
Šustrová, Romana
Šustrová, R. Fiscal decentralization and economic growth in the European Union countries. Diploma thesis. Brno: Mendel University, 2017. This thesis analyses relationship between fiscal decentralization and economic growth in the European Union countries. The empirical investigation is based on panel data regression analysis. The regression models include 27 member states from 1997 to 2015. The investigation of relationship between economic growth and public budget balance is also one of the research question of this thesis. This relationship is check through Granger Causality testing. Obtained results are compared with results of earlier studies.
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Vlivy změn cen ropy na směnné kurzy
Oberreiterová, Monika
The aim of this thesis is to verify the hypothesis that changes in oil prices have a significant impact on the real effective exchange rates. Vector autoregressive (VAR) model is used to empirically test this influence for monthly data from January 2001 to January 2016 in USA and the Russian Federation. The result was not proving significant impact on the REER. Oil price and REER have demonstrable impacts on total import and export of these countries.
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