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Factors influencing the development of exchange rates with a focus on the economy of Czech republic
PÁLINKÁS, Peter
The bachalor thesis deals wirth the basic terms about an exchange rate, for example like the systems of exchange rates or the definition of terms of trade. There is described also the historical development of foreign trade until now, when it is the key item of global economy. The second part is practical, where is fundamental analysis of the czech crown in time intervallum from 2010 until 2019. There is two chosen currency pairs, the EUR/CZK and the USD/CZK. The second part of the practical part of bachalor thesis is looking for impacts on foreign trade with the help of chosen theories of determination of an exchange rate. For the analysis were chosen these theoris - absolute version of the purchasing power parity, relative version of the purchasing power parity, the index ERDI and the theory of current account payments.
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Capital Flight from Ukraine: Measurement and Drivers
Marchenko, Yuliia ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Paulus, Michal (referee)
This thesis presents estimates of capital flight from Ukraine in the period 1994 to 2017. We use the World Bank Residual method to calculate capital flight as a residual difference between sources and uses of funds in the economy. Our findings show that pre-2014, capital flight amounted to 7.5 billion USD on average. On the contrary, in 2014 our method reports unrecorded capital inflow of 10.7 billion USD, which took place in times of economic recession and military conflict in the east of Ukraine. We analyze the factors that might have caused reverse capital flight, and consider that increase in remittance flows, growth of the black currency market and new niches in the underground economy might have had an effect on unrecorded capital inflows. Finally, we study the components of the World Bank Residual method, and suggest that capital flight might have taken forms that the method doesn't encompass. Therefore, we underline the importance of accounting for gaps in the method by adding trade misinvoicing estimates to capital flight volumes. Keywords Ukraine, Capital Flight, World Bank Residual Method, Balance of Payments, Shadow Economy Range of thesis: 89 886 Characters
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Determination of the Exchange Rate
KRČMOVÁ, Daniela
This bachelor thesis deals with determination of the exchange rate. The main aim of the thesis is verification of chosen methods of the determination of a particular exchange rate in real market conditions. In the first part, the bachelor thesis deals with basic terms related to the currency market and are essential for understanding of a given matter. In this part there are described: the currency market, exchange rate quotation and different exchange rate systems. To understand given matter it is necessary to find out, how the given exchange rate works, what we can expect from it in the following years and thus estimate the future development of currency exchange rate. At the end of the theoretical part there are three basic theories of determination of the exchange rate introduced. Those are the purchasing power parity, the interest rate theory, and the last theory deals with the balance of payments. In the practical part I introduce three methods of determination on the exchange pair CZK/GBP, which is observed in the time frame from 2006 to 2017. To prove the validity and consequently compare the theoretical exchange rates with real exchange rates, uncovered interest parity, absolute and relative version of the purchasing power parity and lastly the theory of balance of payments of both countries were used. The future development according to the theory of balance of exchange rate is compared on the basis of current account and overall balance of payments of given countries. Based on the results, a best method of determining the future exchange rate development is suggested.
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State and development of balance of payments of Germany
Sova, Ondřej ; Hnát, Pavel (advisor) ; Procházková Ilinitchi, Cristina (referee)
This thesis focuses on development of balance of payments of Germany, especially on three important historical periods: the international fixed exchange rate system, the unification of Germany and the adoption of euro. The first part of every chapter is based mainly on an economic theory and serves as an introduction to the topic at the same time. In the second part there is a detailed analysis of the balance of payments accounts as well as an analysis of the balance of payments in general at the given period of time and in relation to the given historical events. The first chapter revolves around the international fixed exchange rate system and describes related phenomena. This chapter is little bit different and serves mainly as a theoretical introduction designed to clarify some important economic theorems which are relevant to the following chapters as well. The first half of the second chapter consists in economic aspects of the unification and focuses mainly on the problematic of capital and salary level. In the second half there is a detailed analysis of the international economic relations of the country. The introductory part of the third chapter concerns the development that led to the common European currency as well as some important macro and microeconomic aspects of the euro adoption. Finally there is an analysis in terms of balance of payments of the new common currency establishment.
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Balance of payments of the Republic of Lithuania after 2004
Kánský, Štěpán ; Jiránková, Martina (advisor) ; Krupka, Lukáš (referee)
The bachelor thesis aims to map the development of the balance of payments and the external economic balance of the Republic of Lithuania after 2004. The theoretical backgrounds of the balance of payments and the external economic balance are described in the first chapter, which provide the basis for the practical part, which is divided into two chapters. The second chapter deals with the analysis of individual accounts and sub-accounts of the balance of payments. The third part deals with the analysis of the external economic balance using various indicators to assess its shape.Many graphs are used to show the development of individual items and to highlight the significant trends.
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Balance of payments of Slovenia in 2004 - 2015
Kočišková, Mária ; Jiránková, Martina (advisor) ; Sankot, Ondřej (referee)
The bachelor thesis aims to analyse external economic balance of Slovenia in 2004 - 2015, mainly through the use of balance of payments. The thesis is divided into 3 parts. The first one is wholly theoretical and gives the background for the other two analytical parts. The first of them covers the problematics of the balance of payments, with its accounts and items and tries to find the reasons for such a development. The last part of the thesis deals with the external economic balance using various indicators such as cumulative balances, international investment position and external debt.
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Dynamics of Exchange Rates in Selected Emerging Markets in Risk-on/Risk-off Periods
Ivanov, David ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Šíma, Ondřej (referee)
This thesis focuses on exchange rates dynamics in Mexico, Turkey and South Korea. We examine the capital flow development in mentioned countries and currency dynamics of the Mexican Peso, Turkish Lira and Korean Won. The main goal of the paper is to evaluate the performance of these currencies in risk-on and risk-off episodes on a sample period from 1997 until 2016. We use analysis and comparison as a methodology for this paper, emphasizing on the relationship and causality between capital flow and exchange rates. We shall reveal that the examined currencies depreciate in risk-off periods and only the Korean Won appreciates in risk-on periods.
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The Role of German Economic Policy in Shaping European Union and Eurozone
Šimunek, Martin ; Dědek, Oldřich (advisor) ; Břízová, Pavla (referee)
The thesis complexly assesses the role of Germany in present European Union and Eurozone, especially its influence and responsibility on the formation of the macroeconomic imbalances before the Eurozone crisis, as well as its resolution. The crisis is caused by a divergence in unit labour costs between member countries, and the thesis aims to evaluate the effect of applied austerity measures in the debtor countries on the adjustment of said unit labour costs divergence. It explores additional policy options available as well. Keywords Germany, Eurozone, European Union, crisis, balance of payments, unit labour cost Author's e-mail Thorrmartin@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail dedek@fsv.cuni.cz
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Current account adjustment in the Baltic countries
Vostřák, David ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Šopov, Daniel (referee)
In last twenty years, the Baltic countries have experienced turbulent develompents of their current accounts. Deficits on these accounts were often substantially above 10% of GDP and there was active discussion about their sustainibility. We will look in this work on the developments of the current accounts both from practical and theoretical point of view. The later is made with usage of an intertemporal model of representative agent, who maximazes his utility by optimizing his consumption profile over infinite time horizon. This model is then used in empirical part, where we compare estimated values of the current accounts with their real values. We assume that expectations about future values of key variables are realized by following the vector autoregression of order one. The results of this work suggest that big deficits in past were caused by high expectations about growth rates of the economies. Decreasing of this expectations then resulted in the adjustments of the current accounts. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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The Role of China's Economic Activities in the Third Geopolitical Dividing of Africa
Procházka, Petr ; Horálek, Adam (advisor) ; Frajer, Václav (referee)
China is recognised as a key power in the contemporary, third geopolitical dividing of Africa. The goal of this thesis is to demonstrate that it is only in terms of trade, not assets which would then determine further, cultural links. A comprehensive index of economic dependence is introduced. It takes into account foreign direct investment, migrant remittances and official development assistance flowing into developing countries. For every African nation, their main economic partners will be determined.
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