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Contemporary measures of financial risk
Leder, Ondřej ; Hurt, Jan (advisor) ; Zichová, Jitka (referee)
The main goal of this thesis is to talk about some financial risks and to introduce some methods of measuring them. We place great emphasis on the value at risk, its extension in form of conditional value at risk and introduction of some of its possible alternatives, which are expectile and spectral risk measures. For this it is necessary to introduce some findings of the theory of probability. Our goal is to show the similarity of expectile and quantile, because value at risk is practicaly a quantile. Another goal of this thesis is to show weakness of VaR and to practically illustrate the possibility of using expectile as an alternative to VaR. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Product processes as a tool for financial analysis
Krejčí, Kateřina ; Zichová, Jitka (advisor) ; Hurt, Jan (referee)
This bachelor thesis discusses product processes as a tool for modeling financial time series. The thesis is divided into the theoretical and the practical part. Basic issues are summarized in the theoretical part. Properties of some moments and correlations are described and derived in this part, parameter estimates of a product process are derived subsequently. The practical part deals further with the parameter estimates. The quality of derived parameter estimates is verified in a simulation study in software Mathematica 9 and the proposed estimates are applied to real financial data. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Contemporary measures of financial risk
Leder, Ondřej ; Hurt, Jan (advisor) ; Zichová, Jitka (referee)
The main goal of this work is to talk about some financial risks and to introduce some methods of measuring them. The most important part of this work is the value at risk, its extension in form of conditional value at risk and introduction of some of its possible alternatives, which are expectile and spectral risk measures. For this it is needed to give a theoretical framework from the theory of probability. Its goal is to show the similarity of expectile and quantile, because value at risk is practicaly a quantile. Another goal of this fork is to show some weak properties of VaR and to practically illustrate the possibility of using expectile as an alternative to VaR. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Study of the dependence structure in economic and financial data
Hlavandová, Radana ; Zichová, Jitka (advisor) ; Petrásek, Jakub (referee)
Title: Study of the dependence structure in economic and financial data Author: Radana Hlavandová Department: Department of Probability and Mathematical Statistics Supervisor: RNDr. Jitka Zichová, Dr., Department of Probability and Mathematical Statistics Abstract: The thesis focuses on the issue of graphical models as a possible \\method for determining relationships between different variables. The thesis provides a broad theoretical basis for two methods of testing data, the test of zero partial correlation coefficients and the test based on maximum likelihood estimate. The last mentioned approach is a test of a graphical model with a data set on the basis of deviance. The thesis describes the theory of conditional independence and Markov properties as the basis of both tests, which are illustrated by general examples and by an example with real financial data. Keywords: partial correlation coefficients, conditional independence graph, graphical models
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Non-linear models for financial time series and software tools for their analysis
Fučík, Jan ; Zichová, Jitka (advisor) ; Hendrych, Radek (referee)
This thesis deals with some time series models applicable in finance. First, the basic concepts are introduced and the linear AR models are presented. Afterwards, the reader becomes familiar with the nonlinear ARCH volatility models including their properties and the model-building. The generalized GARCH models are briefly mentioned. Another part of the thesis shows the usage of these models to real data in two available software products - R and Mathematica. The programs are compared from the point of the obtained results and the usability for the analysis of financial time series via the explained models. The description of the procedures and the attached CD with the outputs of the programs allow the reader to apply the models on his or her own data.
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Mathematical methods of investment portfolios construction
Kůs, David ; Witzany, Jiří (advisor) ; Zichová, Jitka (referee)
This thesis describes statistical approaches of investment portfolio constructions. The theoretic part presents modern portfolio theory and specific statistical methods used to estimate expected revenue and risk of portfolio. These procedures are specifically selection method, modelling volatility using multivariate GARCH model, primarily DCC GARCH procedure and Bayes approach with Jeffrey's and conjugated density. The practical part of the thesis covers application of above mentioned statistical methods of investment portfolio constructions. The maximization of Sharp's ratio was chosen as optimization task. Researched portfolios are created from Austria Traded Index issues of shares where suitable time series of historical daily closed prices. Results attained within assembled portfolios in two year investment interval are later compared.
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Portfolios behaviour on efficient and inefficient markets
Kováčová, Iveta ; Hurt, Jan (advisor) ; Zichová, Jitka (referee)
Title: Portfolios behaviour on efficient and inefficient markets Author: Iveta Kováčová Department: Department of Probability and Mathematical Statistics Supervisor: Doc. RNDr. Jan Hurt, CSc., KPMS MFF UK Abstract: In this thesis we summarize the results concerning the construction of optimal portfolios. We introduce the geometric representation of the portfolios in the case that the assumptions about an efficient market are violated. We perform a technical analysis of the portfolio on the given data by using the program Mathematica 8.0. and compare an efficient set of the portfolio at different investment strategies.
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Modelling of yield curves
Šmejkal, Jan ; Hurt, Jan (advisor) ; Zichová, Jitka (referee)
In practice, yield curves, i.e. plots of relation between yields and times to maturity for a group of comparable securities, are an important tool for assets and liabilities pricing as well as for financial decision making. The theoretical risk-free yield curve represents the term structure of interest rates that are used e.g. in insurance industry for pricing the liabilities, for which reserves are created, or also as a benchmark for pricing other assets in the market. When constructing the yield curve, it is not possible to observe yields of a group of assets for all maturities. That is why we use various mathematical methods which enable us to construct the yield curve also for unobserved maturities. In this thesis, some of these methods are introduced. The Svensson's method is one of the most important and frequently used ones. We use this method to derive the coupon curve from Czech government bonds aiming to construct the risk-free zero coupon yield curve. Later on, we use different weights for particular bonds trying to improve pricing of all the bonds based on the derived curve. Then, we also look for the curve that minimizes the mean squared error of estimated (compared to observed) prices. Because problems with liquidity can appear especially for long maturities, we apply all of the procedures to a...
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Testing heteroscedasticity
Špaková, Mária ; Kalina, Jan (advisor) ; Zichová, Jitka (referee)
Title: Testing heteroscedasticity Author: Mária Špaková Department: Department of Probability and Mathematical Statistics Supervisor: RNDr. Jan Kalina Ph.D., Institute of Computer Science, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic Abstract: This paper deals with testing heteroscedasticity. It is divided into four chapters. The first three chapters focus on the theory and the last one is devoted to practical testing using specific data. In the beginning of the theoretical part, basic concepts, knowledge and relationships concerning the linear regression, the regression model and the estimation of parameters by the method of ordinary least squares are introduced. The rest of this part is devoted to heteroskedasticity, its consequences and solutions. The following heteroscedasticity tests are being discussed: Breusch - Pagan, Goldfeld - Quandt and White. The practical part contains actual applications of the described tests and other methods to detect heteroskedasticity using three examples: Outlays vs. income, GDP and Expenditures on food. The aim of this paper is to discuss the above-mentioned tests. Three examples on real data with economic motivation confirm the theoretical properties of the tests. A uniformly optimal test of heteroscedasticity does not exist and different tests yield rather different...
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