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Top Stocks: A Broad Analysis of Its Performance and Search for Hidden Relationships
Veselá, Barbora ; Polák, Petr (advisor) ; Kurka, Josef (referee)
01 Abstract This thesis focuses on the exploration of the basic characteristics of the Czech equity fund 'TOP STOCKS - open mutual fund' and a detailed analysis of the portfolio performance with respect to industry classification. Uniquely collected data from the fund's establishment allow us to make analysis to the fullest extent possible. Additionally, our dataset may be the basis for further studies of this fund as it is the first of its kind and scope. The research question investigates the connection between the portfolio performance and its industrial structure. Various classification schemes are summarised in the first part of the thesis, including the Global Industry Classification Standard used in our study. Subsequently, appropriate tools for a regression and forecast analysis are presented, mainly the Box-Jenkins method used to fit the ARIMA model to historical data and forecast values of weekly NAV. The results show that a stock-picking strategy operates effectively and immediately reacts to the market development of industry groups, resulting in a protection of investors. Also, the exchange rate commitment of the Czech National Bank supported excessive cash inflow to the fund resulting in considerable performance stimulation during last years. Future research may build on these findings.
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The Influence of Foreign Bank Ownership on the Banking System in the Czech Republic
Čermák, Jakub ; Polák, Petr (advisor) ; Hejlová, Hana (referee)
The intention of the thesis is to analyse the Czech banking sector between the years 2003 and 2017 and focus on the behaviour of the foreign banks. Analysing exhaustive quarterly data from the CNB internal database, it is shown that during the studied period, the foreign banks controlled 90% to 96% of the total banking assets in the country. The lending activities of the foreign banks are found procyclical, in contrast to the countercyclical activities of the Czech banks. Contrary to the expectations, corporate loans of the foreign banks do not show a higher degree of procyclicality than the other types of loans. Furthermore, no evidence is found for the claim that the foreign banks' lending patterns follow the business cycles of the home countries of these banks. However, the relation between the GDP growth of the foreign banks' home countries and the foreign banks' loan growth became significant during the global financial crisis between 2008 and 2009. Out of the bank performance ratios, the equity-to-assets ratio is revealed to significantly influence the loan growth of the foreign banks.
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The Impact of Switching Costs on the Customer Satisfaction-Loyalty Link: Mobile Phone Service in the Czech Republic
Jiráková, Zuzana ; Polák, Petr (advisor) ; Doležel, Pavel (referee)
This thesis seeks to explain the dynamics influencing customer loyalty in the Czech market for mobile phone services. Customer loyalty is an important concept in such a saturated market where acquisition of new customers nearly always merits convincing them to leave their current provider, so customer retention is a more adequate strategy to ensure business prosperity. Structural equation modeling is employed in order to build a reliable model which would explain the relationships among the concepts of customer satisfaction, customer loyalty, service quality, and the role of switching costs. The results yield supporting evidence for the positive relationship between service quality and customer satisfaction, as well as the positive relationship between customer satisfaction and customer loyalty. There is no conclusive evidence for the impact of switching costs on the satisfaction-loyalty link.
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A Meta-Analysis of the Estimates of the Armington Elasticity
Bajzík, Josef ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Polák, Petr (referee)
Josef Bajzík Abstract We examine determinants of Armington elasticities throughout history and nations employing 3,524 observations from 42 studies. We conduct meta-analysis using Bayesian model averaging approach to test the most influential factors. We explore more than 30 variables and compare our results with previous summarizing articles. In this thesis is, for instance, the first comparison of employment of different type of models in this area. Finally, we find out that the level of aggregation of the data used for estimation matters as well as the power of the currency. On the other hand, we discover that there is no significant distinction between long-run and short-run estimates. Moreover, we test for publication bias and we find evidence for it in this field.
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Business Model Analysis of the Czech Peer-to-Peer Insurance Carrier
Doležalová, Radka ; Polák, Petr (advisor) ; Hanus, Luboš (referee)
This thesis provides comprehensive description of a new phenomenon of peer-to-peer in- surance focusing on the classification of its main tendencies. The extended overview is accompanied by the original and unique analysis of the business model of The First Club Insurance Carrier, the only Czech peer-to-peer insurance company. The suitability of the concept developed by The First Club Insurance Carrier is tested using five different scenarios derived from its competitors on the Czech insurance market. The profitability and ability to produce payable bonuses for clients in an appropriate amount as proposed by the founders of the company are considered on the ground of scenarios simulating the future development of The First Club Insurance Carrier. On the basis of the created prediction scenarios, the research concludes that the company could achieve a positive economic result in next few years. The amount of givebacks (payable bonuses) has not accomplished the expected amount of 15% of the gross earned premium but it ranges between 9% and 10% in most scenarios. This thesis offers also some requirements for more favorable outcomes (such as a better distribution of gross earned premium between reinsurance and claims expenses). The subsequent what-if analysis showed the insignific- ance of the potential...
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Analysis of Czech P2P lending investors' behaviour drivers
Hudcová, Tereza ; Polák, Petr (advisor) ; Dvořáková Švejdová, Lenka (referee)
This empirical study develops an analysis of peer-to-peer lending market in the Czech Republic by analysing uniquely collected dataset from Czech P2P lending platform Zonky and information obtained directly from its investors. The research question investigates, if there exists correlation between peer-to-peer investors' risk attitude, which is inferred by validated survey method, and their real behaviour on platform. The thesis' results show that investors in online environment behave way riskier than they, from the theoretical point of view, actually should. Results also confirmed that investors' risk attitudes are domain specific. Subsequently, OLS estimation method uncovers that the only factor, that is highly statistically significant, in terms of the impact on lenders' expected return, is the interest rate stated at loan request. This finding further supports lenders' inclination to greater risk, resulting in lack of concern with borrower's characteristics.
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Internet and mobile phone diffusion and its determinants
Kračmerová, Veronika ; Polák, Petr (advisor) ; Serdarevič, Goran (referee)
This thesis examines determinants of an Internet and mobile phones diffusion and potentially different impacts of these determinants in case of developing and developed countries. For this purpose panel data from 199 countries for period from 1995 to 2012 are used. There is a number of variables including economic, technological, political and human capital factors. Benefits of this thesis are that the research uses updated dataset and it also adds new variables into its econometric model. This thesis also examines in detail the adoption of information and communication technologies in the Czech Republic, which has not been published previously. One of the conclusions is a finding that penetration of mobile phones and the Internet is faster in developing countries than in developed countries. Fixed effects method in the global testing also showed that the economic wealth of a country is an important determinant for the Internet only for developed countries, while for the mobile phones the GDP is a significant variable in both groups of countries. Analysis of the Czech Republic brings different results for both technologies, but the unemployment rate, which was added to the basic model, has proven to be an important determinant for both the Internet and mobile phones. Key words: Mobile phone,...
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Comparison of criminal behaviour development in the CR with trends in rich countries
Pokorný, Petr ; Cahlík, Tomáš (advisor) ; Polák, Petr (referee)
This bachelor thesis explores crime development in rich countries and compares it with crime development in the Czech Republic. The aim of this bachelor thesis is to statistically verify thoughts discussed in The Economist magazine about the downward trend in crime development in rich countries. In the first part of the thesis, terms related to crime are defined. Subsequently, rich countries are deter- mined. In the second part, the crime development in the rich countries is explored through a fixed effect model estimation of panel data. In the third part, crime de- velopment in the Czech Republic is analyzed by using a simple regression model and an autoregressive model. In the final part of the bachelor thesis, an econometric model analyzes factors that generally affect crime, especially wealth of countries. The arguments about the downward trend in crime development in rich countries are supported by statistical examination. 1
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Willingness to contribute through crowdfunding in the Czech Republic
Vernerová, Rebecca Salome ; Polák, Petr (advisor) ; Schwarz, Jiří (referee)
This Bachelor thesis aims to examine the public's willingness to crowdfund through various Czech online platforms and to find what factors influence this willingness. The method of data gathering was an online question form; the results were analyzed using ordered logit. The dependent variable "willingness to contribute" was sorted by size into four categories. In the final model, these four variables have proven to be significant with positive coefficient: Provize (the contributor researched how much of the donation is deducted by the platform), Sam (the contributor discovered the project on his own), Podnikani (the contributor's favourite categories included business), Dobrovolnictvi (the contributor volunteers for charity). With negative coefficient, these variables: Prispel (the contributor had previously donated via crowdfunding platform), Clanek (the contributor discovered the project through an article in media) and Vzdelavani (the contributor's favorite categories included education). The results have further shown that the only two demographical factors influencing willingness to contribute are sex and age. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Modeling and Forecasting Volatility: Evidence from Bosnia and Herzegovina
Hečimović, Emir ; Polák, Petr (advisor) ; Hausenblas, Václav (referee)
iv Abstract The purpose of this thesis is to research stock market volatility in Bosnia and Herzegovina and provide comparison with regional and European stock markets. We employ symmetric and asymmetric generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models in order to estimate the conditional volatility of benchmark stock market indices in Bosnia and Herzegovina (SASX-10, BIRS), former Yugoslavia region (CROBEX, BELEX15, SBI TOP) and Europe (EURO STOXX50). Additionally, we analyze the evolution of conditional standard deviations for selected markets and develop dynamic GARCH volatility forecasts for SASX-10 and BIRS. Our results suggest that Bosnia and Herzegovina markets are characterized with relatively high persistence and long memory in volatility. However, compared with regional and European markets, SASX-10 and BIRS exhibit lower persistence. Although significant leverage effect was found both for regional and European markets, asymmetric modeling produced insignificant and negative leverage effect for SASX-10 and BIRS time series. Bosnia and Herzegovina stock markets display moderate to low levels of synchronization with regional and European stock markets. In general, SASX-10 was found to be more volatile than BIRS. The latter is, surprisingly, the least volatile among all...
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