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Estimating the effective lower bound for the Czech National Bank’s policy rate
Kolcunová, Dominika ; Havránek, Tomáš
This paper focuses on the estimation of the effective lower bound on the Czech National Bank’s policy rate. The effective lower bound is determined by the value below which holding and using cash would be preferable to holding deposits with negative yields. This bound is approximated on the basis of the storage, insurance and transport costs of cash and the loss of convenience associated with cashless payments. This estimate is complemented by a calculation based on interest charges reflecting the impact of negative rates on banks’ profitability. Overall, we get a mean of slightly below –1%, approximately in the interval (–2.0%, –0.4%). In addition, by means of a vector autoregression we show that the potential of negative rates is not sufficient to deliver monetary policy easing similar in its effects to the impact of the Czech National Bank’s exchange rate commitment during the years 2013–2017.
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The Impact of Student Employment on Educational Outcomes: A Meta-Analysis
Kroupová, Kateřina ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Schwarz, Jiří (referee)
Despite the extensive body of empirical research, the discussion on whether student employment impedes or improves educational outcomes has not been resolved. Using meta-analytic methods, we conduct a quantitative review of 861 effect estimates collected from 69 studies describing the relationship between student work experience and academic performance. After outlining the theo- retical mechanisms and methodological challenges of estimating the effect, we test whether publication bias permeates the literature concerning educational implications of student employment. We find that researchers report negative estimates more often than they should. However, this negative publication bias is not present in a subset of studies controlling for the endogeneity of student decision to take up employment. Furthermore, after correcting for the negative publication bias, we find that the student employment-education relationship is close to zero. Additionally, we examine heterogeneity of the estimates using Bayesian Model Averaging. Our analysis suggests that employment intensity and controlling for student permanent characteristics are the most important factors in explaining the heterogeneity. In particular, working long hours re- sults in systematically more negative effect estimates than not working at...
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Essays in Applied Meta-Analysis
Polák, Petr ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Pugh, Geoff (referee) ; Rusnák, Marek (referee) ; Reed, William Robert (referee)
The dissertation consists of three papers presenting applications of meta-analysis in economics and introductory chapter which discusses the development of meta-analysis in author's perspective as well as strengths and weaknesses of this quantitative method to synthesize empirical research. In the first paper analyses the impact of information and communication technology investments on productivity. The second paper focuses on the trade effect of the euro. In the third investigates the relation between international trade flows and trade costs.
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Performance Ranking of Czech Credit Scoring Models
Smolár, Peter ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Jakubík, Petr (referee)
This thesis provides a comprehensive ranking of 11 Czech statistical and 4 foreign credit scoring models. The ranking is based on the predictive performance of individual models, as measured by the area under curve, evaluated on a randomly sampled set of 250 training and validation samples. After establishing a baseline comparison, 3 avenues of estimation setup optimization are explored, namely missing value treatment, estimation method and the use of additional non-financial variables. After being optimized, the models are once again ranked based on their predictive performance. Statistical inference is drawn using ANOVA and the Friedman test, along with the corresponding Tukey and Nemeyi pos-hoc tests. In their baseline form, the Czech credit scoring models are found to be outperformed by the foreign benchmark model. Treating the missing values by OLS imputation and estimating the models by probit, significantly is found to significantly improve their predictive performance. In their optimized form, the difference in predictive performance between Czech and foreign credit scoring model is found to be only marginal. JEL Classification G28, G32, G33, G38 Keywords credit scoring, multiple discriminant analysis, logit analysis, probit analysis Author's e-mail 71247263@fsv.cuni.cz Supervisor's e-mail...
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Migration and Development: A Meta-Analysis
Palecek Rodríguez, Miroslava María ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Šedivý, Marek (referee)
The current literature on international migration is diverse, and there is an ongoing debate as to the size and magnitude of the development-migration nexus, and no consensus about this effect has been reached. In this thesis, I explore quantitatively the effect of GDP (as a measure of development) on migration using a meta-analysis approach by synthesizing the empirical findings on this effect, adjusting for the biases, and controlling for the design of the studies. To examine the phenomenon in a systematic way, I collected 179 regression coefficients from 40 different articles, where the results suggest a weak presence of publication selection. Nevertheless, when correcting for publication bias, the effect of development on migration is rather small. Additionally, to explain the inherent model uncertainty, the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) was conducted. The results suggest that studies controlling for the variables of direct foreign investment and age results in a larger effect of development on migration and that the presence of country- level differences boosts migration inflows, particularly in OECD countries.
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Impact of Public Health-care Expenditure on economic growth
Nerva, Vijayshekhar ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Mareš, Jan (referee)
This thesis serves to investigate the varying effects of public health-care expenditure and private health-care expenditure on economic growth in developed and developing countries. I have contributed to the literature by using an expansive geographical dataset, lagged variables to address endogeneity, and model averaging techniques. I do so by first addressing the issue of model uncertainty, which is inherent in growth studies, by using Bayesian Model Averaging as the method of analysis in the thesis. Examination of 126 countries (32 developed and 94 developing) in the period 2000-2018 reveals that there is no variation in the impact of public health expenditure on economic growth between developed and developing countries. Contrary to public health expenditure, private health expenditure has a varying impact on both developed and developing countries. My analysis also reveals that the results hold when lagged variables are used in the model. Public health expenditure has unanimously a negative effect on economic growth in both developed and developing countries. Private health expenditure, on the other hand, has a positive impact on economic growth in developed and developing countries. Furthermore, I found that the results are robust to different model specifications. JEL Classification I15, O11,...
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Do Central Bank FX Reserves Matter for Inflation?
Keblúšek, Martin ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Holub, Tomáš (referee)
01 Abstract Foreign exchange reserves are a useful tool and a buffer but maintaining an amount that is too large can be costly to the economy. Recent accumulation of these reserves points to the importance of this topic. This thesis focuses on one specific part of the effect of FX reserves on the economy - the inflation. I use panel data for 74 countries from the year 1996 to the year 2017. There is a certain degree of model uncertainty for which this thesis accounts for by using Bayesian model averaging (BMA) estimation technique. The findings from my model averaging estimations show FX reserves to not be of importance for inflation determination with close to no change when altering lags, variables, when limiting the sample to fixed FX regimes nor when limiting the sample to inflation targeting regimes. The most important variables are estimated to be a central bank financial strength proxy, exchange rate depreciation, money supply, inflation targeting, and capital account openness. These results are robust to lag changes, prior changes, and for the most part remain the same when Pooled OLS is used.
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Price Elasticity of Alcohol Demand: A Meta-Analysis
Boško, Anita ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Janda, Karel (referee)
The main objective to this meta-analysis is to estimate the price elasticity of alcohol demand after correcting for publication bias and to identify the attributes that explain the data heterogeneity. By employing a funnel asymmetry test, this study confirms and corrects for the presence of the publication bias and suggests that price elasticites for wine and spirits have decreased. This finding is in line to the changing drinking patterns, where wine and spirits become more attractive beverages then beer. A stronger publication bias has been confirmed also under the assumption of nonlinearity, which is derived by applying the "stem-based" method. To account for model uncertainty we use Bayesian model averaging and derive that the length of the data, highly frequency data and estimates under the specification for unconditional demand function, contribute the most to the data heterogeneity. Heavy drinkers are not responsive to the price changes, exhibiting a totally inelastic alcohol demand. Country development is important and low and medium income countries may affect the estimated alcohol price elasticities.
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Vizualizace normálového a tečného napětí u lepených spojů
Havránek, Tomáš
This master thesis deal with the glued joint. Teoretical part is focused on basic facts and an advanteges or disadvanteges of this technique. A large part is devoted to theory of gluid process, adhesion, cohesion wettability of glued surfaces. Last part of the theoretical part is searches in the field of tension glued joints and methods to quality assessment of made joint. Experimental testing glued surfaces was made as bend test. During testing was monitored the acoustic emissions. The emissions characterize violation of glued joints. Results of this experiment are evaluated in the end of this thesis.
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