National Repository of Grey Literature 28 records found  beginprevious19 - 28  jump to record: Search took 0.01 seconds. 
Sustainable real exchange rates in the new EU member states: what did the great recession change
Babecký, Jan ; Bulíř, Aleš ; Šmídková, Kateřina
Writers find that real misalignments in several countries with pegged exchange rates and excessive external liabilities widened relative to earlier estimates. While countries with balanced net trade positions may experience sustainable appreciation during 2010–2014, several currencies are likely to require real depreciation to maintain sustainable net external debt.
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Central banks' voting records and future policy
Horváth, Roman ; Šmídková, Kateřina ; Zápal, Jan
Writers assess whether the voting records of central bank boards are informative about future monetary policy. First, they specify a theoretical model of central bank board decisionmaking and simulate the voting outcomes. Three different versions of model are estimated with simulated data: 1) democratic, 2) consensual and 3) opportunistic. Next, the model predictions are tested on real data on six countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States).
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Inflation targeting and communication: Should the public read inflation reports or tea leaves?
Bulíř, Aleš ; Šmídková, Kateřina ; Kotlán, Viktor ; Navrátil, David
Using a simple forward-looking policy rule and an assessment of inflation reports, writers provide a new methodology for the empirical evaluation of consistency in central bank communication.
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Inflation persistence in new EU member states: Is it different than in the euro area members?
Franta, Michal ; Saxa, Branislav ; Šmídková, Kateřina
Writors of this paper confirm that one should work carefully with the usual estimation methods when analyzing the NMS, given the scope of the convergence process they went through. They show that due to frequent breaks in inflation time series in the NMS, parametric statistical measures assuming a constant mean deliver substantially higher persistence estimates for the NMS than for the euro area countries.
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Exchange rate in the new EU accession countries: What have we learned from the forerunners?
Bulíř, Aleš ; Šmídková, Kateřina
This study deals with the economic problems associated with the European Union. Estimation and simulation of sustainable real exchange rates in some of the new EU accession countries point to potential difficulties in sustaining the ERM2 regime if entered too soon and with weak policies. According to the estimates, the Czech, Hungarian, and Polish currencies were overvalued in 2003.
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Estimates of Fundamental Real Exchange Rates for the Five EU Pre-Accession Countries
Šmídková, Kateřina ; Barrell, Ray ; Holland, Dawn
The work employs the concept of the fundamental real exchange rate (FRER), taking into account the specific features of countries in the advanced stage of transition. The FRER model approximates the integration gain with the impact of foreign direct investment on trade and allows for larger current account deficits if external debt is below a safety limit.
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What is the appropriate rate of disinflation to be targeted in the Czech economy?
Mahadeva, Lavan ; Šmídková, Kateřina
This work deals with the inflation of the Czech Republic in comparison with countries and values ​​of the European Union. It discusses the changing targets after 1997 and possible solutions disinflation.
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Koruna Exchange Rate Turbulence in May 1997
Šmídková, Kateřina ; Běhounek, Jiří ; Hlédik, Tibor ; Jílek, Josef ; Koštel, Miroslav ; Matalíková, Ivana ; Rottová, Dana ; Staňková, Jana
The report analyzes the change in exchange rate, which dropped significantly in may 1997. It also deals with the consequences of this change and the status and the position of the Czech economy in the world.
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The impact of demographic changes on the real interest rate and international capital flows.
Dybczak, Kamil ; Kodera, Jan (advisor) ; Izák, Vratislav (referee) ; Šmídková, Kateřina (referee)
The demographic structure seems to change dramatically over the next 50 years in the Czech Republic. The aim of this study is to assess the impact of expected demographic changes on the future development of a real interest rate and international capital flows. In order to simulate the impact of the expected demographic changes upon the mentioned variables we apply a computable overlapping generations model. The real interest rate development is simulated under a closed economy assumption. As a result of the future expected demographic changes labour-capital ratio tends to fall, i.e. the real interest rate diminishes. The range of a change is significantly affected by a public budget closure rule. In case of an endogenous income tax rate, the real interest rate falls down by 0.5 percentage point. On the contrary, the real interest rate decreases by almost 1 percentage point in case when public transfers adjusted. Assuming an open economy, we simulate the impact of the expected demographic changes on the international capital flows between the domestic economy and the rest of the world. In case of increasing ratio of older agents, the aggregate domestic wealth surpasses the demand for capital by domestic firms. As a result a part of domestic capital is exported abroad. Increasing level of net foreign assets contributes to positive change in ratio of the balance of payment to the domestic production in a range from 2 to 5 percentage points over next 40 years if income taxes or public transfers change respectively.
Empirické eseje o pravidlech měnové politiky a inflaci
Vašíček, Bořek ; Turnovec, František (advisor) ; Šmídková, Kateřina (referee) ; Macháček, Martin (referee) ; Babecký, Jan (referee)
This dissertation is divided into four essays, each of them having its own structure and methodological framework. Although each of the essays making the chapters of the thesis is self-contained, their topics are very closely related. Consequently, the reader will be able to follow the thesis in its unity. Essay I is a selective survey of the extensive, mostly theoretic, literature dealing with monetary policy rules. We aim at contextualization of the monetary policy rules in the existing monetary economics literature. We explain the logic, the inspiration and the history of the rules for the monetary policy conduct. We distinguish between instrument rules and targeting rules as two basic categories. Finally, we resume specific issues related to policy rules for small open economies. Essay II studies the logic of short-term interest rate setting pursued by 15 EU countries before and after the launch of the EMU. We employ econometric estimation of the augmented Taylor rule (TR) for individual 15 EU countries and the Euro area. Although a vast empirical evidence is available for the major economies like the US, the UK or Germany, there is an important gap in our understanding of the factors behind the short-term interest rate dynamics in smaller economies. We find that in the period preceding the euro adoption, the TR is a poor representation of monetary policy setting in most EU countries and that many central banks considered decisions made by dominant economies rather than their domestic macroeconomic developments. The analysis of monetary policy rule of the ECB features additional problems related to the heterogeneity of the EMU. We argue that results based on Euro-area aggregated series, commonly presented in empirical studies, are subject to diverse econometric problems. We provide some evidence that the ECB is concerned also with national information and propose quasi-panel analysis as a viable framework. Essay III explores the relation between the existing monetary policy and domestic price stability in small open emerging economies, in particular the 12 EU new member states. This work has three principal objectives. First, it aims at revealing the logic of interest rate setting pursued by monetary authority of each country. The linear specification of the Taylor rule, applied already in the Essay II, is accompanied by an extensive analysis of nonlinearities in monetary policy rules and the inference on their possible sources. We find that the official monetary policy is sometimes inconsistent with the empirical evidence on the short term interest rate setting. The second objective consists in revealing the determinants of the inflation process. We have found that inflation rates are driven not only by backward persistency but also by the forward-looking component. Third, we employ analysis of the conditional inflation variance so as to give account on the viability of the existing monetary policy setting for price stability. We conclude that the policy of inflation targeting seems to be preferable to exchange rate peg because it allows decreasing not only inflation rate but also its conditional variance. Essay IV seeks to shed light on inflation dynamics of four CEEC (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia) and test when the predominant model of inflation, the New Keynesian Philips Curve (NKPC), is consistent with the data of these countries. According to the microfounded NKPC, the current inflation is related to inflation expectations and the real marginal cost. The empirical validity of this model has recently become a subject of major controversy in the monetary economics. Although we find some favorable evidence for the NKPC, it seems to be too restrictive model for small open economies. In particular, the failure of the NKPC to explain the inflation dynamics of these countries may be related to the assumption that inflation is related to forward-looking price setting of domestic monopolist firms while our evidence suggests that prices in CEEC have an important backward-looking component and the inflation is significantly driven by external factors like the exchange rate and the foreign inflation rate.

National Repository of Grey Literature : 28 records found   beginprevious19 - 28  jump to record:
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2 Šmídková, Karla
16 Šmídková, Kateřina
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