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Analysis of factors influencing medicinal products sales - case study
Rozvadský, Matúš ; Červinka, Michal (advisor) ; Kučera, Tomáš (referee)
This thesis analyses impact of economic and natural factors on the OTC market for the Czech Republic. Specifically analyses a section of the OTC drug market for which company Dr. Max offers generic alternatives. This thesis presents the theoretical background of the pharmaceutical and pharmacy market in the Czech Republic as well as regression analysis of which factors influence sales of drugs of our interest. The results are evaluated based on data for distributions of drugs for the period 2018-2020. Specific models were prepared for data divided into groups based on the purpose of a product. Moreover, our study analyses differences between the influence of various factors on the whole market of our interest and products of Dr. Max only. Models were using the two-stage least squares estimator in order to avoid endogeneity bias. Results suggest a significant effect of income and seasonality for all categories as well as the significance of the autoregressive element. Furthermore, we conclude the presence of the effect of the consumer price index of health-related products on categories for allergy-related products and cold/flu-related products. Finally, we concluded a significant positive impact of products of Dr. Max for a category of cold/flu-related products.
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Impacts of various critical situations on aviation industry and parallel with the COVID-19 pandemic
Fedorik, Milan ; Červinka, Michal (advisor) ; Malinská, Barbora (referee)
Civil aviation is expanding industry in the United States. The number of passengers had risen following the Airline Deregulation Act and kept rising until the 9/11 attacks hit the domestic aviation market. This unprecedented event resulted in a decline in the number of passengers. In January 2020 first rumors about disease caused by SARS-CoV-2 spread around the world. New health threats made traveling more dangerous and unessential. In this study, the author copes with aviation history and how critical situations such as terrorist attacks or pandemics a ect the civil aviation market. Additionally, this thesis presents methods of performing regression analysis on the primary U.S. domestic market and specific routes subsidized through the government program Essential Air Service. Keywords aviation, COVID-19 pandemics, Essential Air Service, 9/11 attacks, OLS
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Using spin model to determine FTTx connectivity market potential in the Czech Republic
Munduch, Pavel ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Červinka, Michal (referee)
The our thesis "Using spin model to determine FTTx connectivity market po- tential in the Czech Republic", we firstly map the current landscape of the Czech broadband technology market. Additionally, we present an overview of Ising model's interdisciplinary applications. Afterwards, we describe the dy- namics of the Ising model and in particular we study the convergence tendencies of Ising model generated series as well as the spin positioning in the Ising model lattices based on the input parameters. Consequently, we assume the spins in the model to represent the fiber tech- nology and alternative technology and thus we link the Ising model, its parame- ters and outputs to the problem of fiber connectivity potential. Apart from the standard input parameters of the Ising model, we also introduce variability in terms of the distribution of the initial lattice and we define four archetypes to represent real market situations. Ultimately, we describe the sets of parameters for which the market appears to have the most potential of fiber deployment. JEL Classification A12, C6, C15 Keywords Ising model, econophysics, fiber technology, broadband connection Title Using spin model to determine FTTx connectiv- ity market potential in the Czech Republic
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What is My Car Worth? Hedonic Price Analysis of the German Used Car Market
Doležalová, Radka ; Polák, Petr (advisor) ; Červinka, Michal (referee)
Valuation of used cars, affected by various technical attributes and information asymmetry, is the key objective of all agents operating on the automobile mar- ket. This thesis, focusing on a hedonic price analysis, aims to determine basic as well as additional attributes as determinants of a used car market price. In addition, the analysis sheds light upon novel attributes (service records, cigarette smoke pollution of a vehicle interior, selling channel factor in the e- commerce environment, and a German geographical division). The hedonic price research uses the unique data sample of the German used car market, extracted from the database of the e-commerce platform AutoScout24 com- prised of almost 51 thousand vehicles and 57 attributes. The model selection is specified by the incorporation of the Bayesian model averaging approach. The research proves the complexity of a valuation of a used vehicle in a term of a substantial number of relevant variables. The most interesting innovative conclusions are non-significant effect of selling channels and small local price differences among two German regions. Remarkable are also the significant effect of the status of previous owners, bodywork colour, and smoke pollution. The estimated vehicle lifespan of 10 years shows that cars have shorter than...
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Determinants of overall domestic performance of a motion picture
Derco, Martin ; Červinka, Michal (advisor) ; Kučera, Tomáš (referee)
A multi-billion film and television industry is a non-negligible component of both national and global economies, employing hundreds of thousands workers in the domestic market alone. An average major motion picture of recent years amounts to a hundred million U.S. dollars investment. The study explores the determinants of box office revenues. Firstly, the domestic film market is described, and related literature is reviewed. Secondly, using a unique cross-sectional dataset obtained from major publicly available sources we construct several models which should provide us with explanatory information on what factors relate to a theatrical success in terms of revenues. The log-log OLS regression is employed to estimate the impact of key determinants of film's profitability. In conclusion the evaluation of hypotheses is provided alongside with several suggestions on future research and film production. Keywords film industry, film, OLS regression, box office revenues
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A simulation based analysis of price elasticity of demand
Kubišta, Michal ; Stráský, Josef (advisor) ; Červinka, Michal (referee)
i Abstract In this work, we describe a novel methodology to analyse the price elasticity of demand. This method combines an artificial neural network that serves as the model of the behaviour of the customers and a subsequent simulation based on this model. We present the validation of our approach using a real-world dataset obtained from an e-commerce retailer and demonstrate its advantages, notably the ability to estimate the elasticity in distinct price points and the inclusion of the complete pricing situations (not only product's own price). JEL Classification C45, C44, C15, D12 Keywords price elasticity of demand, artificial neural net- work, agent-based model Title A simulation based analysis of price elasticity of demand Author's e-mail Supervisor's e-mail
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Can Model Combination Improve Volatility Forecasting?
Tyuleubekov, Sabyrzhan ; Baruník, Jozef (advisor) ; Červinka, Michal (referee)
Nowadays, there is a wide range of forecasting methods and forecasters encounter several challenges during selection of an optimal method for volatility forecasting. In order to make use of wide selection of forecasts, this thesis tests multiple forecast combination methods. Notwithstanding, there exists a plethora of forecast combination literature, combination of traditional methods with machine learning methods is relatively rare. We implement the following combination techniques: (1) simple mean forecast combination, (2) OLS combination, (3) ARIMA on OLS combined fit, (4) NNAR on OLS combined fit and (5) KNN regression on OLS combined fit. To our best knowledge, the latter two combination techniques are not yet researched in academic literature. Additionally, this thesis should help a forecaster with three choice complication causes: (1) choice of volatility proxy, (2) choice of forecast accuracy measure and (3) choice of training sample length. We found that squared and absolute return volatility proxies are much less efficient than Parkinson and Garman-Klass volatility proxies. Likewise, we show that forecast accuracy measure (RMSE, MAE or MAPE) influences optimal forecasts ranking. Finally, we found that though forecast quality does not depend on training sample length, we see that forecast...
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Pricing Options Using Monte Carlo Simulation
Dutton, Ryan ; Dědek, Oldřich (advisor) ; Červinka, Michal (referee)
Monte Carlo simulation is a valuable tool in computational finance. It is widely used to evaluate portfolio management rules, to price derivatives, to simulate hedging strategies, and to estimate Value at Risk. The purpose of this thesis is to develop the mathematical foundation and an algorithmic structure to carry out Monte Carlo simulation to price a European call option, investigate Black-Scholes model to look into the parallel between Monte Carlo simulation and Black-Scholes model, provide a solution for Black-Scholes model using Lognormal distribution of a stock price rather than solving Black-Scholes original partial differential equation, and finally compare the results of Monte Carlo simulation with Black- Scholes closed-form formula. Author's contribution can be best described as developing the mathematical foundation and the algorithm for Monte Carlo simulation, comparing the simulation results with the Black-Scholes model, and investigating how path-dependent options can be implemented using simulation when closed-form formulas may not be available. JEL Classification C02, C6, G12, G17 Keywords Monte Carlo simulation, Option pricing, Black-Scholes model Author's e-mail ryandutton4@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail oldrich.dedek@fsv.cuni.cz
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