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Informační strategie firmy
Kutnar, Petr ; Zahradníček, Pavel (oponent) ; Koch, Miloš (vedoucí práce)
Tato diplomová práce se zabývá návrhem informační strategie pro Fakultní nemocnici Brno, která je největším poskytovatelem zdravotnických služeb na Moravě. První část práce obsahuje teoretická východiska, která popisují použité pojmy. V následující kapitole jsou provedeny analýzy, které si kladou za cíl co nejpřesněji popsat současnou situaci organizace. Třetí část práce obsahuje návrh informační strategie hned z několika pohledů, součástí této kapitoly je také podrobná časová analýza projektu metodou PERT. V závěru jsou pak zhodnoceny náklady a přínosy nové informační strategie fakultní nemocnice.
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Informační strategie firmy
Jedličková, Marie ; Zahradníček, Pavel (oponent) ; Koch, Miloš (vedoucí práce)
Existence informační strategie v podniku napomáhá řídit informační systém a tím tak pozitivně ovlivnit plnění globálních strategických cílů společnosti a její celkový úspěch na trhu. Tato práce se zaměřuje na tvorbu informační strategie ve společnosti působící na českém trhu patřící do sektoru malých a středních podniků. První část práce představuje teoretická východiska problematiky. Druhá část práce je věnována podrobným analýzám současného stavu společnosti a jejího potenciálu, aby pak bylo možné v třetí části navrhnout vhodné změny, které budou v podniku implementovány v rámci informační strategie. Navržené změny budou v souladu s celkovou strategií společnosti a povedou k lepší podpoře budoucího rozvoje společnosti na trhu.
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Analýza ztráty integrity nádrže pomocí MKP
Zahradníček, Pavel ; Nováček, Filip (oponent) ; Stuchlík, Viktor (vedoucí práce)
Tato diplomová práce se zabývá problematikou uskladňovacích nádrží na ropné produkty. V úvodní části práce je uvedeno rozdělení nádrží, související normy a údržba nádrží. Další část práce se zabývá analýzou reálného případu havárie nádrže. Byl vytvořen 3D model havarované nádrže dle naměřených hodnot v nádrži. Dále byl vytvořen skořepinový model nádrže podle výkresové dokumentace a analýza výsledků šetření havárie pomocí metody konečných prvků (MKP) v programu ANSYS. Byl proveden výpočet odolnosti konstrukce na boulení dle ČSN EN 1993-1-6 a jeho porovnání s výsledky výpočtu MKP v programu ANSYS. Cílem práce bylo nalezení kritického stavu konstrukce a stanovení kritického vnitřního podtlaku a přetlaku. Na závěr byla určena opatření pro bezpečný provoz a nastavení ventilačních členů.
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Drivers of soil moisture trends in the Czech Republic between 1961 and 2012
Trnka, Miroslav ; Brázdil, Rudolf ; Balek, J. ; Semerádová, Daniela ; Hlavinka, Petr ; Možný, M. ; Štěpánek, Petr ; Dobrovolný, Petr ; Zahradníček, Pavel ; Dubrovský, Martin ; Eitzinger, Josef ; Fuchs, B. ; Svoboda, M. ; Hayes, M. ; Žalud, Zdeněk
Soil moisture dynamics and their temporal trends in the Czech Republic are forced by various drivers. Our analysis of temporal trends indicates that shifts in drought severity between 1961 and 2012 and especially in the April, May, and June period, which displayed such results as a 50% increase in drought probability during 1961–1980 in comparison to 2001–2012. We found that increased global radiation and air temperature together with decreased relative humidity (all statistically significant at p < 0.05) led to increases in the reference evapotranspiration in all months of the growing season; this trend was particularly evident in April, May, and August, when more than 80% of the territory displayed an increased demand for soil water. These changes, in combination with the earlier end of snow cover and the earlier start of the growing season (up to 20 days in some regions), led to increased actual evapotranspiration at the start of the growing season that tended to deplete the soil moisture earlier, leaving the soil more exposed to the impacts of rainfall variability. These results support concerns related to the potentially increased severity of drought events in Central Europe. The reported trend patterns are of particular importance with respect to expected climate change, given the robustness and consistency of the trends shown and the fact that they can be aligned with the existing climate model projections. Introduction
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Testing a statistical forecasting model of electric energy consumption for two regions in the Czech Republic
Rajdl, Kamil ; Farda, Aleš ; Štěpánek, Petr ; Zahradníček, Pavel
Precise forecasting of electric energy consumption is of great importance for the electric power industry. It helps system operators optimally schedule and control power systems, and even slight improvements in prediction accuracy might yield large savings or profits. For these reasons, many forecasting models based on various principles have been developed and studied. Because of energy consumption’s strong dependence on weather conditions, such models often utilize outputs from numerical weather prediction models. In this study, we present and analyse a statistical model for forecasting hourly electrical energy consumption by customers of E.ON Energie, a.s. in two regions of the Czech Republic. The aim of this model is to create hourly predictions up to several days in advance. The model uses hourly data of consumed energy from 2011–2014 and corresponding predictions of temperature and cloudiness provided by the ALADIN/ CZ model. The statistical model is based on a regression analysis applied to appropriate data samples and supplemented by several optional post-processing methods. Specifically, we use a robust linear regression algorithm to identify energy consumption’s dependence on temperature, the meteorological variable with the largest influence on consumption. Our post-processing methods focused on removing prediction bias resulting from economic situations (represented by the goss domestic product, GDP) and sudden temperature changes. We analysed the presented model from the point of view of the hourly predictions’ accuracy for 2013 and 2014. Accuracy was primarily measured by mean absolute error. It was evaluated for individual months, and the effects of individual parts of the model on accuracy value are shown. Introduction
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Köppen–Geiger climate classification by different regional climate models according to the SRES A1B scenario in the 21st century
Szabó-Takács, Beáta ; Farda, Aleš ; Zahradníček, Pavel ; Štěpánek, Petr
We investigate future climate conditions projected by six regional climate model (RCM) simulations driven by the SRES A1B emission scenario. As a diagnostic tool of climate change, we used the Köppen–Geiger climate classification as it is suitable for assessing climate change impacts on ecosystems. The analysis is based on a comparison of Köppen–Geiger climate subtypes during two future time slices (2021–2050 and 2070– 2100) with climate subtypes observed during 1961–2000. All RCMs showed expansion of the area covered by warmer climate types in the future, but the magnitude of the growth varied among RCMs. The differences stemmed from several sources, mainly boundary forcing provided by the driving global circulation models (GCMs) as well as different physical packages, resolution, and natural variability representation in individual GCMs. In general, RCMs driven by the ECHAM5-r3 GCM projected cooler climate conditions than did RCMs driven by the ARPÈGE GCM. This can be explained by two factors related to ECHAM5-r3: i) exaggerated transport of cool and moist air from the North Atlantic to Europe in summer, and ii) winter advection of cold air from the Artic owing to North Atlantic Oscillation blocking pattern alteration during solar minima as well as higher natural variability. RCM-related properties, such as physical package and spatial resolution, may also significantly affect climate predictions, although they do so to a smaller extent than does the driving GCM data.
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Quality control and homogeneity testing of daily time series of eca ECA&D
Zahradníček, Pavel ; Štěpánek, Petr ; Farda, Aleš ; Skalák, Petr
For any meaningful climate analysis, it is necessary for analysed time series to be homogeneous, which means that their variations are caused solely by variations in weather and climate (Conrad and Pollak 1950). Th us, prior to any analysis, the need to homogenize data and check their quality arises. Unfortunately, most of the climatological series that span over decades, to centuries, contain inhomogeneities caused by station relocations, exchange of observers, changes in the vicinity of the stations (e.g. urbanization), changes in instruments, observing practices (e.g. diff erent formulas for calculating daily means, diff erent observation times), etc. In this work we focused on testing the quality and homogeneity of daily data produced by ECA&D. Th is is a free available dataset of daily meteorological elements from the European Climate Assessment & Dataset (http://eca.knmi.nl/). Th is database was used to create a regular grid of EOBS points, which are oft en used to validate climate models.
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Past hydrometeorological extremes in south-western Moravia (Czech republic) derived from taxation records
Chromá, Kateřina ; Brázdil, Rudolf ; Valášek, H. ; Zahradníček, Pavel ; Dolák, L.
Historical records related to taxation at fi ve landed estates located in the south-western part of Moravia in today’s Czech Republic are employed for the study of hydrological and meteorological extremes during the 1761–1900 period. At that time, the tax system in Moravia allowed farmers to request tax relief if their crops or land were damaged by natural disaster. Th is study disclosed a total of 69 hydrometeorological events resulting in damage in the 1761–1900 period, with the highest concentration of extreme events in 1771–1799 and 1822– 1849 (together 82.6%). Of 113 extremes classifi ed, torrential rains (34.5%) and hailstorms (31.9%) were the most frequent, followed by thunderstorms, fl oods, windstorms and fl ash fl oods. June (30.4%) was the month with the highest occurrence of extreme events and July (31.0%) for classifi able extremes; in both cases their highest frequency occurred in May–August. However, the results obtained are infl uenced by uncertainties related to taxation records, such as temporal and spatial incompleteness or limitation of the vegetation period, as well as by the local occurrence of the phenomena studied, a trend demonstrated by comparison with the results of Dolák et al. (2013). Taxation records constitute a very important source of data for historical climatology and hydrology.
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Comparison of corrected and uncorrected model simulations in the perspective of climate change in the area of the Czech Republic
Štěpánek, Petr ; Farda, Aleš ; Zahradníček, Pavel ; Skalák, Petr
In recent years, simulations from various regional climate models became available for the area of the Czech Republic, thanks to several national and international projects (e.g. the EC FP6 projects CECILIA, ENSEMBLES or the national project VaV SP/1a6/108/07). Th e simulations of all the models were performed according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario with various spatial resolutions. Since models suff er from biases, the model outputs were statistically corrected using the quantile approach of M. Déqué. Aft er correction, the RCM outputs were statistically processed and analyzed, especially for air temperature and precipitation, but also for other elements (like relative humidity, wind speed and sunshine duration). In this study, the diff erences between models outputs, as well as the corrected and uncorrected results, are presented.
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