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One-parent families and households in the Czech republic
Jandová, Veronika ; Langhamrová, Jitka (advisor) ; Dotlačilová, Petra (referee)
The thesis handles the topic of families and households from the point of view of EU-SILC, Statistika rodinných účtů and also Sčítání lidu, domů a bytů, especially from the year 2011. It discribes kinds, types of families and households and what is possible on basis of gained information about each family and household see on national as well as international level. Another part of the thesis is focused on definition of poverty limit and it´s impact risks on particular family types mainly in Czech households. On the base of previous development, the future development tendency of number and structure of households and families is mentioned and is expressed by three projections concerning the household development.
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Predikce měnových kurzů
Dror, Marika ; Pánková, Václava (advisor) ; Arltová, Markéta (referee) ; Hančlová, Jana (referee)
The thesis investigates different exchange rate models and their forecasting performance. The work takes previous literature overview and summarize their findings. Despite the significant amount of papers which were done on the topic of exchange rate forecast, basically none of them cannot find an appropriate model which would outperform a forecast of a simple random walk in every horizon or for any currency pair. However, there are some positive findings in specific cases (e.g. for specific pair or for specific time horizon). The study provides up-to-date analysis of four exchange rates (USD/CZK, USD/ILS, USD/GBP and USD/EUR) for the period of time from January 2000 to August 2013 and analyse forecasting performance of seven exchange rate models (uncovered interest rate parity model, purchasing power parity model, monetary model, monetary model with error correction, Taylor rule model, hidden Markov model and ESTAR model). Although, the results are in advantage of Taylor rule model, especially for the exchange rate of USD/CZK, I cannot prove that the forecasting performance is significantly better than the random walk model. Except of the overall analysis, the work suppose instabilities in the time. Stock and Watson (2003) found that the forecast predictability is not stable over time. As a consequence, the econometric model can give us better forecast than random walk process at some period of time, however at other period, the forecasting ability can be worse than random walk. Based on Fluctuation test of Giacomini and Rossi (2010a) every model is analysed how the out-of-sample forecast ability changes over time.
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Family households in the Czech Republic since the second half of the 20th century
Havelková, Veronika ; Fučíková, Simona (advisor) ; Cséfalvaiová, Kornélia (referee)
This bachelor thesis studies the evolution of different types of households, especially family households, based on various demographic indicators and according to various criteria and data sources from the 2nd half of 20th century. An important year for the concept of this thesis is the year 1961, when was first census performed in the concept of census households. The theoretical section explains important concepts, data sources and historical evolution of families and households, and current trends in the formation of these households. It also explains the severance of households, and the last section deals with the family households. The analytical part compares demographic indicators such as demographic structure between 1961 and 2011 and the marriage rate. Furthermore, there are analyzed various type of households, but particularly the family households, according to different data sources and different characteristics. The last part of this chapter deals with the forecast number of family households in the future.
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The assessment of price developments of pork meat in selected EU countries
HAUZEROVÁ, Jana
The main objective of this work is to analyze the prices of pork in selected EU countries in the period 2003-2013. This work consists of several parts. In the first part dealt with theoretical issues - agriculture sector, and therefore the Czech agriculture, the issue of the pricing in agriculture. The last part of the theoretical part contains a comparison of costs and revenues on a pig.The second part is called the methodology, this section contains instructions for calculations that are performed in solutions and results. The third part contains the results of calculations, because the prices of agricultural producers were used per 100 kg live weight and average annual wages. At the end of the work are collected all the results obtained in this work results.
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Simulation analysis of the impact of alternative rates of VAT
Lacinová, Věra ; Hušek, Roman (advisor) ; Formánek, Tomáš (referee)
This thesis is composed of free main chapters. The first two chapters of is a theoretical part. The first chapter is devoted to the theory of economic policy and analysis of economic indicators. The second chapter concerns the econometric theory and describes vector autoregression models theory and econometric forecasting. In the third, practical part, aims to find out with the help of real data of the Czech economy impacts of alternative VAT rates on selected indicators of the czech economy, these indicators are gross domestic product, unemployment rate and consumer price index. As a tool to determine the impact of using models and vector autoregression method scenarios.
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Central bank forecasts as a coordination device
Filáček, Jan ; Saxa, Branislav
Do private analysts coordinate their forecasts via central bank forecasts? In this paper, writers examine private and central bank forecasts for the Czech Republic. The evolution of the standard deviation of private forecasts as well as the distance from the central bank’s forecasts are used to study whether a coordination effect exists, how it is influenced by uncertainty, and the effects of changes in central bank communication. The results suggest that private analysts coordinate their forecasts for the interest rate and inflation, while no or limited evidence exists for the exchange rate and GDP growth.
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Revenue forecast of municipal budgets
Radilová, Marcela ; Sedmihradská, Lucie (advisor) ; Bayer, Ondřej (referee)
The subject of my thesis is to analyze the predictions of tax revenues in ten municipalities of comparable size. The main aim of my thesis is to evaluate the accuracy of predictions for selected municipal tax revenues and see if you can not refine their expert estimation using appropriate statistical methods. A sub-goal is to characterize in detail the various components of the budget revenues, and analyze their size and structure in selected municipalities. Another important sub-goal is to compare the communities to highlight their differences and common elements of municipal budget process. These information are based on interviews at municipalities. The result of the analysis is that the optimal use of prediction methods differ not only income from income, but from city to city. For income tax paid by employees appeared in some cases, reliable prediction of the city, in other cities it was exponential smoothing. For the tax on personal income from independent activities is clearly the most accurate regression analysis, which refines the prognosis of this tax by up to several tens of percent. Although the error of prediction of the city in property taxes was none too small, this approach has remained the most accurate. Only three cities have been more accurate by using exponential smoothing.
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Iceland's economy in the context of the global financial and economic crisis
Bořuta, Lukáš ; Cihelková, Eva (advisor) ; Bartušková, Hana (referee)
This Bachelor thesis analyzes the impact of the global financial and economic crisis on Iceland's economy and the Iceland as a whole. This thesis describes the specifics of the Iceland's economy and the events that led to economic growth from the beginning of the new millennia. It describes the causes and effects of the global financial crisis on the economic and political situation of the country. It closely analyzes the collapse of banking sector, problems with saving bank Icesave and the help provided by International Monetary Fund and surrounding countries. It also briefly describes the development of relations between Iceland and the European Union, provides a view on economic post-crisis development and its gradual recovery. It also deals with short-term forecasts of future economic development. Finally, the thesis describes the main risks and challenges that Iceland faces on its way to full recovery.
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Revenue Forecasting in Municipal Budgets
Talíř, Jan ; Sedmihradská, Lucie (advisor) ; Kostohryz, Jiří (referee)
The diploma thesis is focused on the analysis of prediction of tax revenues in conditions of cities Polička, Svitavy and Litomyšl. The main objective was to determine how surveyed municipalities predict their tax revenues, how accurate their estimates are and, in particular, whether it is possible to achieve more accurate results based on basic statistical methods. Minor objectives of this work were the description of how the individual municipalities forecast tax revenues, how the forecasts are integrated into the budget process and how this issue is dealt with in the United States. The results of the analysis showed that it is not possible to get more accurate predictions using basic quantitative models. It turned out that the quality of predictions of the statistical models was similar to the quality of the municipal estimates, even at forecasts of those tax revenues, where the deviation from the real revenue is quite high.
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Data Mining Aplications in Marketing
Ďurkovský, Jaroslav ; Novotný, Ota (advisor) ; Maryška, Miloš (referee)
In my work I deal with the issue of data mining and its use in the commercial sphere. Specifically, I focused on marketing and sales forecast. The aim of my work was first to assemble knowledge from data mining and then use it to create sales forecasts using data mining add-on for Excel. In the first part I gather the theoretical information about data mining. I focused on definition, the methodology, algorithms and of course on the most frequent usage. The second part consists of the practical application of acquired knowledge. I focus on making the sales forecast of HERO CZECH company. I used data mining add-on for Microsoft Excel 2007. Results are compared with real forecasts prepared by the Key Account Manager. Results of my work proved that forecasts from data mining add-on for Excel were not more accurately than the existing ones from Key Account Manager. Nevertheless, I believe that the use of data mining methods have found use in preparing the forecast, at least as a means of support.
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