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Statistical methods in demographic forecasting
Šimpach, Ondřej ; Langhamrová, Jitka (advisor) ; Arltová, Markéta (referee) ; Palát, Milan (referee)
Dissertation thesis creates a complex and modern scheme for stochastic modeling of demographic processes, which is universally applicable to any population in the world. All calculations are described in detail on the data of the Czech Republic. Throughout the work the attention is drawn to the issues, that every analyst must necessarily take into account in order to obtain correct results. Data comes mostly from the Czech Statistical Office database. However, some data matrices had to be calculated for the purposes of the thesis. Particular demographic processes (mortality, fertility and migration) are modeled using selected modern approaches (ARIMA models, Lee-Carter method) and based on the constructed models these processes are forecasted to the future. Using partially projected results a comprehensive demographic projection of the population of the Czech Republic is created up to the year 2050. However, not on the basis of the current state and expert expectations of the future development, but based on sophistically projected demographic events, which are explained using the trends and main components of their previous development. This demographic projection is created in three scenarios (marked SC1, SC2 and SC3), which are made from selected optimal models, presented in particular sections of the work. One part of the thesis is also the backward retropolation of age-specific number of net migrants by sex in the Czech Republic since 1948. On its basis the analysis and prediction of the migration can be done. The thesis is a synthesis of the projections of demographic processess of mortality, fertility, and migration. Final results are confronted with three scenarios of population projections of the Czech Republic created by the Czech Statistical Office and five scenarios of population projections by Eurostat. The purely statistical approach of demographic forecasting in comparison with deterministic models and expert expectations has its positives and negatives. Therefore, the different results due to various methodological approaches are discussed and compared in the conclusion of the thesis.
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Development and importance of immigration in the Czech Rebublic
Vlk, Tomáš ; Šimková, Martina (advisor) ; Nývlt, Ondřej (referee)
The aim of this bachelor work is to describe the benefit of migration for the Czech Republic. The immigration represents the only way to preserve the number of population and economic activity in the majority of developed countries, in which we see the natural decrease of the population. This work studies, which flows of migrants were used the most in the history of the Czech Republic, how much they are used now, which nationalities immigrate, what look their age structure and economic activity are, why they prefer the Czech Republic and if they adopt our reproductive habits or they preserve their origin habits. Next the work analyses the migration policy of the Czech Republic and it targets on positives and negatives caused by these new foreigners. The important part of the work consists of an analysis of the impact on a labour market. It proves that the migration can preserve or even reverse the situation, when the productive generation is decreasing and the index of economic dependence is increaseing. Next part is focused on the international comparison. It compares, which the levels of migration other neighbour states reach. The conclusion of this work tries to find out a probable development of tendency of migration in the Czech Republic.
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Comparison of early retirement options from demographical point of view
Mačková, Zuzana ; Miskolczi, Martina (advisor) ; Fiala, Tomáš (referee)
The topic of this bachelor thesis is comparison of options for early retirement in the Czech Republic and assesment of their potential toward years 2014--2060. To achieve this, a model for calculating the number of potential persons to retire each year will be used. For over two decades citizens of the Czech Republic with 3 years and less to the standard retirement age can apply for early retirement. Upon granting their request the state begins paying them old age pension which is however permanetly reduced. Since 2013 there exist a new form of early retirement called "předdůchod". Any person with at least 2 years and at most 5 years to the standard retirement age qualifies for this new option provided she has enough funds saved in the so called III. pillar of the pension funding programme. The advantage of this alternative is that the standard old age pension is not reduced. The potential number of early retirees will change rapidly in the following years. The biggest surge will occur by the year 2040 as people born in the 1970's baby boom will begin to reach their retirement age. Their number will then decline again after the year 2040.
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Posibilities of taking the number of children raised into consideration in the pension system construction
Veselý, Václav ; Fiala, Tomáš (advisor) ; Pechholdová, Markéta (referee)
The subject of diploma thesis is the pension system in the Czech Republic. We warn about the deficit increase in the future and suggest taking the number of children raised into consideration in the pension system construction. Pension system in the Czech Republic is described in detail. The first "pay-as-you-go" pillar represents the main part of the system. It could bring financial problems (if the retirement pension and pension income tax will stay at the same level as now) considering the expected trends in demography. Population projection was calculated using cohort component method (including migration). The threshold for the projection is year 2011, projection is calculated with 100-year horizon. There were also calculated revenues and expenses of the pension system for each projected year. If the expected parameters of the projection will be realized, the deficit of pension system in the hundred year period will reach 9.5 billion Kč (prices 2011). It represents the deficit 95.3 milliard Kč each year in the average. To reduce the deficit it is possible to increase the pension tax paid by productive people. But it could also bring the decline of fertility, because lower income could make people decide to reduce number of children. It would deepen the problems in the pay-as-you-go system. The financial problem of pension system could be solved by taking the number of children raised into consideration of the pension system construction. It would eliminate the situation that it is economically more favourable to be childless during the life. It could also bring the fertility increase. In the diploma thesis the value of the deficit is simulated for the various parameters of pension system and for the various demographic development in the future.
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The Application of Art Therapy and Artefiletics in the Work with Children in the Pre-primary Education
NIKODÝMOVÁ, Monika
The aim of this work is to describe possibilities of Art Therapy and Artephiletics application to children in a nursery school and above all the use of their methods in a social and family context. In the theoretical part it deals with pre-school child´s particularities from the view of his/her individual developement and circumstances reflected in the child´s emotional sphere, in the play and primarily in the art expression. It defines the basic features of Art Therapy and Artephiletics. In the practical part the work deals with a possible study of the family within artephiletic and artetherapeutic sequence, secondly, it concerns with the projective method itself.
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Analýza vymezených prvků ÚSES v porovnání s jejich skutečným stavem
Suchopýr, o.p.s., Oldřichov v Hájích ; Hlídková, Alena
Studie navrhuje metodický postup ověření skutečného stavu ÚSES na jednotlivých hierarchických úrovních a prověření aplikaci územního systému ekologické stability (ÚSES) v praxi, a to především na úseku územního plánování obcí. Analytická část porovnává návaznosti mezi plány ÚSES a územními plány (ÚP) obcí v území působnosti vybraných obcí s rozšířenou působností (ORP). Metodika a výstupy z analytické části by měly v dalším kroku sloužit jako podklady pro část srovnávací zaměřenou na návaznost mezi vymezenými prvky ÚSES zahrnutými v územních plánech obcí a skutečným stavem, zjištěným na základě terénních šetření ve vegetační sezóně. Jsou definovány nejčastější problémy v dané oblasti a návrhy jejich řešení.
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Odborná východiska pro zpracování metodiky vymezování ÚSES
AGERIS, s.r.o., Brno ; Zimová, Eliška ; Kocián, Jiří ; Hájek, Miroslav ; Glos, Josef ; Bínová, Ludmila
Studie přináší analýzy a odborná stanoviska nezbytná pro zpracování metodiky pro vymezování ÚSES. Obsahuje vyhodnocení stávajících metodik, definici pojmů v dané oblasti, popisuje role jednotlivých subjektů v procesu vymezování ÚSES, vztahy a vazby mezi různými úrovněmi státní správy při stanovování zásad územního rozvoje a návrh metodiky zpracování plánů ÚSES pro účely zapracování do územních plánů obcí. V příloze je uvedena analýza zásad územního rozvoje krajů.
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Selected Characteristics of Labour Market in Connection with Population Ageing
Pour, Vojtěch Václav ; Miskolczi, Martina (advisor) ; Kotýnková, Magdalena (referee)
Bachelor thesis is concerned with labour market with regard to effects of population ageing in the Czech Republic. Together with introduction of terminology from the area of demography and economics it describes trends on labour market and presents analysis of population dynamics in 1950-2009. The ageing on labour market for last sixty years is summarized there. The thesis is focused on use of existing predictions till 2060 and their comparison. Three independent population projections (from the Czech Statistical Office, Eurostat and Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs) are considered. Their comparison is implemented by calculation of total dependency ratio, senior and junior dependency ratio, eventually by second economic generation and population pyramids. Moreover, second economic generation is modelled in several variants as it follows progressive shift of labour market entry because of increasing length of education and, on the other end, shift of retirement age: age limits 20-64, 20-69, 23-64 and 23-69 completed years.
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Projection of Population of the Czech Republic with Different Variants of Net Migration
Hammerbauer, Jiří ; Fiala, Tomáš (advisor) ; Kačerová, Eva (referee)
The theme of bachelor thesis is based on the projection of population of the Czech Republic with different variants of net migration. The goal is to show whether and how migration is able to prevent population decline and possibly affect the aging of population. Besides the projection and description of its calculation, the thesis deals with the current development of international migration in the Czech Republic since 1993 and its institutional framework. Emphasis is placed on immigration to the Czech Republic, the structure of immigrants by sex, age and citizenship is analyzed.
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