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Predikce měnových kurzů
Dror, Marika ; Pánková, Václava (advisor) ; Arltová, Markéta (referee) ; Hančlová, Jana (referee)
The thesis investigates different exchange rate models and their forecasting performance. The work takes previous literature overview and summarize their findings. Despite the significant amount of papers which were done on the topic of exchange rate forecast, basically none of them cannot find an appropriate model which would outperform a forecast of a simple random walk in every horizon or for any currency pair. However, there are some positive findings in specific cases (e.g. for specific pair or for specific time horizon). The study provides up-to-date analysis of four exchange rates (USD/CZK, USD/ILS, USD/GBP and USD/EUR) for the period of time from January 2000 to August 2013 and analyse forecasting performance of seven exchange rate models (uncovered interest rate parity model, purchasing power parity model, monetary model, monetary model with error correction, Taylor rule model, hidden Markov model and ESTAR model). Although, the results are in advantage of Taylor rule model, especially for the exchange rate of USD/CZK, I cannot prove that the forecasting performance is significantly better than the random walk model. Except of the overall analysis, the work suppose instabilities in the time. Stock and Watson (2003) found that the forecast predictability is not stable over time. As a consequence, the econometric model can give us better forecast than random walk process at some period of time, however at other period, the forecasting ability can be worse than random walk. Based on Fluctuation test of Giacomini and Rossi (2010a) every model is analysed how the out-of-sample forecast ability changes over time.
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Specification of the relationship between gas consumption in commercial and industrial sector and outside temperature
Pálková, Eliška ; Stroukal, Dominik (advisor) ; Čermáková, Klára (referee)
Aim of this thesis is to make the relationship between the gas consumption in commercial and industrial sector and temperature more accurate. The thesis is based on broad data which describes gas consumption of companies from the whole distribution network in the Czech Republic and information about temperature in the areas where the distribution networks operates. For the estimation of the model is used the weighted least squares method. The results show decreasing trend in the consumption during summer by 61%, during weekend by 41% and during holidays by 28%. The consumption is the most sensitive to the changes in temperature in the range of -1 °C to 20 °C and when the temperature is below -7 °C or above 24 °C the consumption doesn't react to the changes in temperature anymore.
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Hospodářské dopady změn struktury půdního fondu dvou krajů ČR
Pluhařová, Romana
The goal of this bachelor thesis is to create regression models of regions Pardubice and Zlín. The theoretical part includes the general information about the land foundation, land registry and public administration. The reader is informed here about the characteristic of regions Pardubice and Zlín. Problems of the timelines and the regression analysis are explained here. The progress of particular kinds of land in regions Pardubice and Zlín from 1994 to 2013 is analysed in the practical part. Their future evolution is determined by an appropriate trend function. Dependence, between the particular folders of lands and the economic performance and the employment in individual economic sectors and in the region as a complex, is researched under the terms of the regression analysis. The mutual comparison between the regions is carried out on the ground of obtained results.
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Simulation analysis of the impact of alternative rates of VAT
Lacinová, Věra ; Hušek, Roman (advisor) ; Formánek, Tomáš (referee)
This thesis is composed of free main chapters. The first two chapters of is a theoretical part. The first chapter is devoted to the theory of economic policy and analysis of economic indicators. The second chapter concerns the econometric theory and describes vector autoregression models theory and econometric forecasting. In the third, practical part, aims to find out with the help of real data of the Czech economy impacts of alternative VAT rates on selected indicators of the czech economy, these indicators are gross domestic product, unemployment rate and consumer price index. As a tool to determine the impact of using models and vector autoregression method scenarios.
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An evaluation of real GDP growth forecasts
Kačmareková, Monika ; Jablonský, Petr (advisor) ; Dobrovolný, Marek (referee)
This paper is aimed at verifying the reliability of real GDP growth forecasts for Czech Republic periodically published. Concretely the prediction of different groups of institutions have been examined. It includes analysis of forecasts for the period 2003-2011. Evaluation criteria for assessing their accuracy consist of summary statistics, directional accuracy rate and graphical illustration of avereged prediction. These evaluation methods are important for the hypothesis verification. It has been demonstrated the ability to deliver more accurate forecasts in comparison with earlier period in a specific horizon, next, a rising precision of predictions with declining time horizon, systematic underestimation of forecasts in the time of expansion and overestimation in the time of recession. At last, the conducted analysis displays that czech institutions are doing not considerably better in forecasting real GPD growth.
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New trends in internet marketing.
Vaľková, Alexandra ; Štědroň, Bohumír (advisor) ; Kocour, Vladimír (referee)
This Master's Thesis describes the evolution of the Internet, its importance in marketing and new trends and tools used in internet marketing. It also deals with question of potential Internet collapse in future, describes variants of how it could happen and gives the suggestions to solve this problem, too. The Master's Thesis also includes forecasts of evolution of the Internet till 2030 and forecasts of major global agencies concerning the evolution of information technologies and technological news, which can significantly influence the entrepreneurial activity of many companies all over the world.
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Simulation predictions of the Czech economy
Vejdělková, Dita ; Hušek, Roman (advisor) ; Formánek, Tomáš (referee)
The thesis is composed of three main parts. The first part is theoretical and I deal here with economic relationships between macroeconomic magnitudes. Second part dedicated to the econometric theory of prognosis follows, in which I deal with different types of prognoses and prediction methods used at present. In the third, practical, part my intended aim is to create the best possible models of relations between fundamental macroeconomic magnitudes, using real Czech economy data, and to make simulation predictions of these magnitudes based on acquired models while utilising scenario analysis. First, I deal with choice of MSE and VAR models. Then follows the estimate of particular models and validation of prognostic capabilities of particular models for static and dynamic simulation. I conclude with elaboration of macroeconomic magnitudes prognosis while using scenario analysis.
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Analysis of aplication of the logistics in the selected company
TESAŘ, Martin
This diploma thesis analyses the production plant Schneider Electric, a. s. Písek both from present and future application of main logistic principles. It includes the analyse of material and information as well as applied methods: Lean Manufacturing, Kanban, Just-in-time, Short Interval Management, Six Sigma. This diploma thesis accents an importance of informational securing of the supplier and customer relationship through the forecast. The forecast is being tested and thereafter the results will be presented as an introduction for the improvement.
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