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Regional Convergence in the European Union: Do the Business Services Make the Difference?
Pintera, Jan ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Kopečná, Vědunka (referee)
Despite years of deepening economic integration among the states and regions of the European Union, empirical research remains inconclusive about speed of convergence across regions, if not its existence. This thesis provides novel evidence on convergence in the EU while focusing on development at regional level after the Great Recession. It uses recently developed log t convergence test by Phillips and Sul (2007). Our findings speak against the convergence in level of income per capita among the European regions and give us five clubs of regions converging in their income growth rates instead. Investigating further the geographical distribution of the convergence clubs, we confirm high inequality within the member states and find large continuous area of high convergence clubs in the urbanized part of Western Europe. Furthermore, we investigated the determinants of convergence club membership using Logistic Regression. The main explanatory variable of interest were Business Services (BS), a dynamic sector of the economy with presumably strong positive effect on regional innovative potential. We found positive effect of BS on membership in higher convergence clubs. Yet, this effect seems to diminish for the very highest club.
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Forecasting and nowcasting power of confidence indikators:Evidence for Central Europe
Herrmannová, Lenka ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Mikolášek, Jakub (referee)
This thesis assesses the usefulness of confidence indicators for nowcasting and short term forecasting of the economic activity in the Czech Republic and three other Central European countries. The predictive power of both the Czech business confidence indicator and the customer confidence indicator is examined using two empirical approaches. First we predict the likelihood of economic downturn using logit models, later we estimate GDP growth out of sample forecasts in the framework of vector autoregression models. The results obtained from the downturn probability models confirm the ability of confidence indicators (especially the business confidence indicator) to estimate the current economic situation, so called nowcast. Results from the out-of-sample GDP growth value forecasting are ambiguous. Nevertheless the customer confidence indicator significantly improved original forecasts based on the model with standard macroeconomic variables and therefore we conclude in favour of its predictive power. Cross- country comparison confirms economic downturn nowcasting power of confidence indices in Hungary and Poland and fails to confirm such an ability of Slovak confidence indicators. One-quarter-ahead forecasts brought mixed results and therefore we conclude that nowcasting and forecasting properties of...
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Forecasting Ability of Confidence Indicators: Evidence for the Czech Republic
Herrmannová, Lenka ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Mikolášek, Jakub (referee)
This thesis assesses the usefulness of confidence indicators for short term forecasting of the economic activity in the Czech Republic. The predictive power of both the business confidence indicator and the customer confidence indicator is examined using two empirical approaches. First we predict the likelihood of economic downturn defined as a discrete event using logit models, later we estimate GDP growth out of sample forecasts in the framework of vector autoregression models. The results obtained from the downturn probability models confirm the ability of confidence indicators (especially the business confidence indicator) to estimate the current economic situation and to anticipate economic downturn one quarter ahead. Results from the out-of-sample GDP growth value forecasting are ambiguous. Nevertheless the customer confidence indicator significantly improved original forecasts based on a model with standard macroeconomic variables and therefore we conclude in favour of its predictive power. This result was indirectly confirmed by OECD as the Czech customer confidence indicator has been included as a new component in the OECD domestic composite leading indicator since April 2012.
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Voters and Non-voters in the Czech Republic
Vavřinová, Tereza ; Linek, Lukáš (advisor) ; Hendl, Jan (referee)
This study discusses voting behavior of the citizens in The Czech republic. Traditional studies of voting behavior differentiate between voters and nonvoters according to their turnout in one election. This thesis takes up multielection approach and differentiates three categories of voting behavior- voters, nonvoters and irregular voters. Specific features of voters, nonvoters and irregular voters are identified using logistic regression analysis. Theoretically, the study is based on socioeconomic, motivational and mobilization theories of turnout. The focus is put on the decision making of irregular voters. Circumstances tied with irregular voters' turnout are identified. The discussion on methodological problems connected with multi-election approach and research of electoral behavior generally is part of the thesis. The Czech election study 2010 is a main source of the data for analysis.
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Discrimination measures in credit risk
Polak, Michal ; Pešta, Michal (advisor) ; Zahradník, Petr (referee)
Scoring models represent a fundamental tool for the modern management of credit risk. This is mainly due to a significant development in the field of information technology. Such models are used not only when providing credit, but also in strategies relating to the future management of credit risk, or in strategies connected with enforcing receivables. In my thesis I deal with discrimination measures used in the validation of diversification potential of logistic scoring models. At the beginning, I focus on the term 'risk'. Then, I introduce a basic division of scoring models. Next, I describe the method of scoring logistic regression, I concentrate on estimating parameters, their significance and on testing their relevance. For the measurement and illustration of diversification potential of the model I mention the most commonly used methods such as the Lorenz and ROC curve, the Gini coeficient, the c-statistic as well as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. Finally, I apply the theoretical knowledge to real data. I design a scoring model and subsequently compare the discrimination measures which it contains. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Laptop Touchpad Palm Detection with AI/ML
Menzyński, Mark Alexander ; Kavetskyi, Andrii (referee) ; Drahanský, Martin (advisor)
Situace ohledně detekci a odmítnutí dlaně na laptopech je méně než ideální. Většina výzkumů se zabývá odmítnutím dotyků na dotykových obrazovkách, a na laptopy probíhá téměř žádný. Patrně nějaký uzavřený výzkům probíhá uvnitř výrobců laptopů, ale i přes to je technologie pozadu. Tato práce prozkoumává několik metod plytkého a hlubokého strojového učení, a výsledná přesnost byla zjištěna jako více než dostačující. Také implementuje aplikaci v reálném čase na demonstraci modelu.
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Bankruptcy Prediction Modelling in the Manufacturing Industry
Tichá, Barbora ; Bartoš, Vojtěch (referee) ; Karas, Michal (advisor)
This diploma thesis deals with the issue of bankruptcy prediction of small and medium-sized enterprises operating in the manufacturing industry in selected Central European countries. The theoretical part of the thesis defines the concepts related to the prediction of bankruptcy and methods of model creation. The analytical part of the work includes testing the accuracy of selected bankruptcy model by other authors and creating a new bankruptcy model. The accuracy of the newly created model is then compared with the accuracy of selected models by other authors.
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Electoral volatility in European Parliament Elections in V4 Countries: 2004-2019
Mertlík, Arnošt ; Linek, Lukáš (advisor) ; Dvořák, Tomáš (referee)
This diploma thesis focuses on changes in voting behaviour among voters in the Visegrad Group states (V4), specifically electoral volatility between the European Parliament elections and the national elections in the particular state. The approach to examining electoral volatility in this work is based on the second-order national elections theory, which divides elections into less and more important ones. The aim of the work is first to describe the overall electoral volatility in the V4 states in a cross-section of all European elections based on individual data from post-election questionnaire surveys. Subsequently, I find out what are the specific causes and motivations for changes in electoral behaviour. The analysis shows that there are several different patterns of volatile behaviour in the V4 countries, but the consistent and general pattern is a high degree of electoral demobilisation in the European elections. This may be due to political attitudes or the level of trust in the European institutions. I then analyze voters' demobilization among government and opposition voters, who differ mainly in their views of the national political situation. Keywords Electoral volatility, vote switching, electoral behaviour, second-order national election theory, European Parliament elections,...
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Fertility changes in the context of gender revolution with focus on the man's role in the family in the Czech Republic
Koudelka, Pavel
Title: Fertility changes in the context of gender revolution with focus on the man's role in the family in the Czech republic Author: Mgr. Pavel Koudelka Department: Department of Demography and Geodemography Statistics Supervisor: Prof. RNDr. Jitka Rychtaříková, CSc. Abstract: Profound changes are occurring in the relations between men and women in European families and societies, a transformation that is referred to as the 'gender revolution'. Considering the unprecedented drop in fertility, some important questions may be asked: in a more egalitarian society/family, could we expect a rise in the birth rate? Does men's participation in housework and child- care have an impact on the number of children born (in a family)? Czech society is slowly adapting to gender equality, but this is more apparent in the general mood and opinions than in the reality of households and families. We drew on two waves of a panel study Generations & Gender Survey (GGS) performed in the Czech republic and compared the information about the real involvement of men in households in which (a number of) children were born in between the waves. This is an advantage of GGS over similar studies: we have information about real- ity, real facts, and not only values and attitudes to gender equality or the number of children a...
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The effect of female fertility on their employment in the United States between 1987 and 2003
Retter, Maria ; Kurtinová, Olga (advisor) ; Fialová, Ludmila (referee)
The effect of female fertility on their employment in the United States between 1987 and 2003 Abstract The master thesis is focused on discovering the relationship between female fertility levels and women's employment in the US based on data from longitudinal surveys, which happened in three waves in 1987-1988, 1992-1994 and 2001-2003, in regards to the demographic trends since the second half of the 20th century. The aim is to examine the existence of a relationship between female fertility and their employment depending on the number of children in the household, their education level, marital status and age. The method of binary and multinomial multiple logistic regression is applied. The result of the analysis is that the women's odds ratio of being employed is statistically significantly affected by the number of children, the age of children present in the household and the level of education in the first and second wave of the survey data set. The women's odds ratio of being employed is also influenced by the women's marital status and age. Another finding is that the women's odds ratio of staying, coming or finding a new job is also affected by the number of new children in the household, the level of education and age. Keywords: Demographic trends, fertility, women's employment, USA, logistic...
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