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Can Bayesian econometric methods outperform traditional econometrics in inflation forecasting?
Stráský, Josef ; Netuka, Martin (referee) ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor)
Forecasting of inflation rates has become crucial for both policy makers and private agents who try to understand and react to Central Bank decisions since many Central Banks implemented inflation targeting rules instead of control of monetary aggregates. Inflation forecasting is considered to be very complicated issue because univariate regression models and structural macroeconomic models are usually outperformed by naive random walk model. This work is intended for forecasting inflation in the Czech Republic by employing Bayesian econometric method (namely Bayesian Vector autoregression - BVAR). Bayesian methods proved to be useful in inflation forecasting in developed countries (Fabio Canova: G-7 Inflation Forecasts: Random Walk, Phillips Curve or What Else?, 2007). Bayesian econometrics is one of the most developing fields of econometrics for past two decades. In the centre of the approach is Bayesian probabilistic theory based on conditional probabilities. This probabilistic approach is, however, computationally demanding. Fast computer evolution enables wide applications of Bayesian models. Model estimations are based on combining information from some prior beliefs and from the data. Many different sorts of models have their Bayesian variants (e.g. OLS) but the emphasis in this work is on Bayesian...
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Go on Small Boards
Čížek, Pavel ; Majerech, Vladan (referee) ; Hric, Jan (advisor)
In presented work we study applicability of the heuristics used in computer analysis of the chess (to be specific we will consider transposition tables, killer moves, history heuristics and counter-moves) for the valuation of the position in the go. In the first part will try to deal with problems which arises, because rules and behaviour of the chess and go are really different in some ways. Obtained heuristics had been implemented and at the end we will try to evaluate their efficiency and mutual (in)dependence experimentally using this program to solve some simple positions.
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Upínací systémy dílců u CNC obráběcích center a navržení možnosti zdokonalení
Nováček, Jiří
These diploma thesis is focused on the research of particular camping systems of sections for CNC machining centres. It's focused on the proposal of an improvement of elected CNC machine. The first part consists of a drawing documentation and making of functional prototype of a clamping system. The second part contents theoretical proposal of a new clamping system and consequently the making of a computer model.
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The knowledge of the population of the Czech Republic about the radiation risks resulting from accident at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant.
JAROŠ, Luboš
The Chernobyl disaster is still considered to be one of the biggest catastrophic accidents in the history of nuclear energetics. After the explosion of the nuclear reactor, abundance of radioactive substance escaped to the atmosphere and in the shape of the radioactive cloud affected even the area of the former Czechoslovak Socialist Republic. Political parties and state authorities reacted on this situation by setting up the state committee, which under political pressure intentionally concealed the information about the risks and consequences of the disaster for the Czechoslovak population. The collapse of the regime not only revealed the crisis of the mistrust to the official sources of information, but also improved the effort of getting information from unofficial and, according to regime, illegal sources. The Chernobyl disaster also caused the mistrust to nuclear energetics. Therefore construction and initiation of the Temelín nuclear power station elicited the interest to the information about The Chernobyl disaster. I have decided to authenticate in my thesis, how well the residents of the Czech Republic are familiar with the Chernobyl disaster and how objective their knowledge about the radiological risks arising from the Chernobyl disaster at present are. I found out the state of the foreknowledge of the residents of the Czech Republic about the radiological risks arising from the Chernobyl disaster by means of questionnaires, where 200 respondents were interviewed. For more detailed research, I divided the residents of the Czech Republic into two groups. The first one consisted of the inhabitants that live in the zone of the disaster preparedness of the Temelín nuclear power station and comprise one half of respondents. The second group consisted of the inhabitants that live of the zone of the disaster preparedness. I drew up questions in the questionnaire in order to include the given problems completely ? from the knowledge about the risks arising from the disaster and emission of the radioactive substances to their consequences for human?s health and the way of reduction their impacts on the population of the Czech Republic. I evaluated the answers from the respondents to the single answers and drew up the tables. I accomplished them by the percentage evaluation of the right and wrong answers, computation of total mean of the achieved points and the total percentage success rate. The evaluation of the knowledge of the respondents of the Czech Republic was accomplished on the basis of the value of total mean of the achieved points and percentage success rate. I did a statistical evaluation by testing normality using ?2 Pearson's chi-squared test. The mutual comparison of the knowledge I did by testing by means of the two-sample t-test on the basis of the guess of the empirical parameters from each group. On the basis of this evaluation of the results of the questionnaire I can declare that the knowledge of the residents of the Czech Republic about the radiological risks arising from the Chernobyl disaster are at a very good level. The results also proved that inhabitants of the zone of the disaster preparedness of the Temelín nuclear power station have greater knowledge about the radiological risks arising from the Chernobyl disaster than the rest of the Czech Republic. It can be observed in the conclusion that all predetermined aims were successfully achieved and the results of the questionnaire also proved the assigned hypothesis.
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Early diagnostic of mnestic disorders in neurodegenerative diseases
Laczó, Jan ; Bojar, Martin (advisor) ; Jirák, Roman (referee) ; Mareš, Jan (referee) ; Rektorová, Irena (referee)
The ageing of the world's population means that the number of people with dementia, especially Alzheimer's disease (AD), will dramatically increase. That's why there is now a great effort to detect the presence of AD in its earliest predementia stages, in the stage of mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and particularly to identify individuals with amnestic syndrome of the hippocampal type (Ha-MCI - preclinical AD). The aim of our studies was to reveal whether spatial navigation testing could serve as an early biomarker of AD - whether spatial navigation is impaired early in patients with MCI, especially in Ha-MCI patients. We used the human analogue of the Morris water maze, the Hidden Goal Task (HGT), which is designed t! o separate two different modes of navigation, egocentric (body- centred, hippocampus independent) and allocentric (world-centred, hippocampus dependent), using a real space navigation setting called the Blue Velvet Arena (BVA), fully enclosed cylindrical arena, as well as a computer version of the BVA. Our results suggest that spatial navigation is impaired already in patients with amnestic MCI, who are more likely to progress to AD, especially in those with amnestic syndrome of the hippocampal type. The Ha-MCI patients presented severe spatial navigation impairment similar to that seen in...
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Aortic stenosis
Šmíd, Michal ; Rokyta, Richard (advisor) ; Rosolová, Hana (referee) ; Ošťádal, Petr (referee) ; Sovová, Eliška (referee)
Aortic annulus and ascending aorta: comparison of preoperative and periooperative measurement in patients with aortic stenosis Introduction Precise determination of the aortic annulus size constitutes an integral part of the preoperative evaluation prior to aortic valve replacement. It enables the estimation of the size of prosthesis to be implanted. Knowledge of the size of the ascending aorta is required in the preoperative analysis and monitoring of its dilation enables the precise timing of the operation. Our goal was to compare the precision of measurement of the aortic annulus and ascending aorta using magnetic resonance (MR), multidetector-row computed tomography (MDCT), transthoracic echocardiography (TTE), and transoesophageal echocardiography (TEE) in patients with degenerative aortic stenosis. Materials and Methods 15 patients (9 males and 6 females, mean age 68.8 + 7,1 years,) indicated for aortic valve replacement due to degenerative aortic stenosis were enrolled into this prospective study. The study followed the principles established in the Declaration of Helsinki. The protocol was accepted by the local ethical board and informed consent was obtained from each patient. The study was performed in a tertiary medical centre. Preoperatively, TTE was performed in all patients, while TEE was...
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The influence of personality structure on the success in triatlon performance
Marková, Kateřina ; Kovářová, Lenka (referee) ; Horčic, Josef (advisor)
Title: The influence of personality structure on the success in triatlon performance Aim: The main purpose of this thesis is to verify in the personal report if there are any differences in the basic physical personality structure among triatlonists and common population and also among triatlonists of single performance levels. Metod: For the collection of needed data it was used questionaire SPARO from the testing battery Diaros. Results were evaluated via special computing program. There were compared results of triatlonists with results of common population. There were also triatlonists separeted into three main performance groups and these were mutually compared as well. Results: Research shows there are statistically significant differences among triatlonists and common population. Triatlonists tend to dynamical interactions connected with a intensive mental energizing with a high situation excitement. They tend to go trough situation pension, they search for situation dynamic. There was also possible to observe statistically significant differences in some dimensions of personality structures among performance groups of triatlonists. Key words: triatlon, performance group, basic self-regulation and integrated personality, SPARO, cognitive, emotional, regulatory, adjustion variability
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Convergence of Regional Productivity
HARUDA, Martin
The main task of bachelor´s thesis is the analysis of productivity in individual regions in the Czech Republic and the appraisal theirs convergence of macroeconomic view. The theoretical part is primarily focused on differentiation of basic concepts relating to productivity. Farther it develops individual types of productivities - labour, capital and capital-labour MFP. My thesis brings theoretical basis of analysis of types and methodology of convergence´s computation. The practical part mainly focuses on demarcated types of productivities´ calculations in the regions of the Czech Republic in totally 16 years range. It endeavours to answer the questions concerning mutual region´s convergence in territorial delimitation NUTS 3. In the conclusion of my thesis there is a summary and also there are analyzed results of researched hypotheses.
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The issue of prevention and early detection for patients with vertebrogenic syndrome in the cervical spine
HORKÁ, Michaela
This bachelor thesis deals with preventive measures and early detection of the vertebrogenic algic syndrome in the cervical spine. Vertebrogenic algic syndrome is a pain in different parts of the spine, which is one of the most common reasons for doctor visits. An alarming fact is that up to 80% of adults face these difficulties up and age of patients is constantly decreasing. Most common cause is poor posture, cervical spine injuries, mental health, degenerative changes, tumors and more. Part of this work is devoted to the prevention of vertebral problems. In these modern times, when the use of computers, laptops, tablets, became the ordinary matter, it is necessary to raise awareness of the basic ergonomic principles when using these devices, modifying work and home environment. The theoretical part is supposed to inform about the causes, mechanisms and physiotherapy practice in the treatment of vertebrogenic algic syndrome. It includes basic knowledge of anatomy, biomechanics of the cervical spine and preventive measures concerning the ergonomics of the working environment, sleeping position and appropriate sports activities. For the practical part of the thesis has been used qualitative research method. Qualitative research was done in the form of case studies of three persons. Each was subjected to an input and output kinesiology examination and history-taking in the form of a structured interview. The probands were interviewed regarding home and work ergonomics. The therapy lasted five weeks at the Health centre Medipont in České Budějovice. The task of the practical part was to use physiotherapy techniques to alleviate pain in a particular segments of the cervical spine and report about basic preventive measures. The result is the production of an educational booklet that contains exercises to stretch and release the cervical spine, basic ergonomic positions accompanied by photographs. This brochure will be available at the front desk at the Health centre Medipont in České Budějovice, in waiting rooms of general practitioners in Jemnice as a practical and synoptical helper in the fight against the problems in the cervical spine. This bachelor thesis could increase an awareness among general public about preventive measures and how to prevent pain in the cervical spine. Furthermore, it can be used by clinical practice physiotherapists in the treatment of vertebrogenic algic syndrome.
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