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Use of Interest Rate Models for Interest Rate Risk Management in the Czech Financial Market Environment
Cíchová Králová, Dana ; Arlt, Josef (advisor) ; Cipra, Tomáš (referee) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee)
The main goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to interest rate risk modeling in the Czech financial market environment in various situations. Three distinct periods are analyzed. These periods, which are the period before the global financial crisis, period during the financial crisis and in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and calming subsequent debt crisis in the eurozone, are characterized by different evaluation of liquidity and credit risk, different relationship between financial variables and market participants and different degree of market regulations. Within this goal, an application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment is crucial. Use of the BGM model for the purpose of predicting a dynamics of a yield curve is not very common. This is firstly due to the fact that primary use of this model is a valuation of interest rate derivatives while ensuring the absence of arbitrage and secondly its application is relatively difficult. Nevertheless, I apply the BGM model to obtain predictions of the probability distributions of interest rates in the Czech and eurozone market environment, because its complexity, direct modeling of a yield curve based on market rates and especially a possibility of parameter estimation based on current swaptions volatilities quotations may lead to a significant improvement of predictions. This improvement was also confirmed in this thesis. Use of swaptions volatilities market quotations is especially useful in the period of unprecedented mone- tary easing and increased number of central banks and other regulators interventions into financial markets that occur after the financial crisis, because it reflects current market expectations which also include future interventions. As a consequence of underdevelopment of the Czech financial market there are no market quotations of Czech koruna denominated swaptions volatilities. I suggest their approximations based on quotations of euro denominated swaptions volatilities and also using volatilities of koruna and euro forward rates. Use of this approach ensures that predictions of the Czech yield curve dynamics contain current market expectations. To my knowledge, any other author has not presented similar application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment. In this thesis I further predict a Czech and Euro area money market yield curve dynamics using the CIR and the GP models as representatives of various types of interest rates models to compare these predictions with BGM predictions. I suggest a comprehensive system of three criteria, based on comparison of predicti- ons with reality, to describe a predictive power of selected models and an appropria- teness of their use in the Czech market environment during different situations in the market. This analysis shows that predictions of the Czech money market yield curve dynamics based on the BGM model demonstrate high predictive power and the best 8 quality in comparison with other models. GP model also produces relatively good qua- lity predictions. Conversely, predictions based on the CIR model as a representative of short rate model family completely failed when describing reality. In a situation when the economy allows negative rates and there is simultaneously a significant likelihood of their implementation, I recommend to obtain predictions of Czech money market yield curve dynamics using GP model which allows existence of negative interest rates. This analysis also contains a statistical test for validating the predictive power of each model and information on other tests. Berkowitz test rejects a hypothesis of accurate predictions for each model. However, this fact is common in real data testing even when using relatively good model. This fact is especially caused by difficult fulfilment of test conditions in real world. To my knowledge, such an analysis of the predictive power of selected interest rate models moreover in the Czech financial market environment has not been published yet. The last goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to obtaining pre- dictions of Czech government bonds risk premium dynamics. I define this risk premium as a difference between government bond yields and fixed rate of CZK IRS with the same length. I apply the GP model to describe the dynamics of this indicator of the Czech Republic credit risk. In order to obtain a time series of the risk premium which are necessary for estimation of GP model parameters I firstly estimate yield curves of Czech government bonds using Svensson model for each trading day since 2005. Resulting si- mulations of risk premium show that the GP model predicts the real development of risk premiums of all maturities relatively well. Hence, the proposed approach is suitable for modeling of Czech Republic credit risk based on the use of information extracted from financial markets. I have not registered proposed approach to risk premium modeling moreover in the Czech financial market environment in other publications.
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Multimedia communication
Vondra, Zdeněk ; Horný, Stanislav (advisor) ; Skrbek, Jan (referee) ; Jurášková, Olga (referee)
Multimedia is a form of communication and sharing knowledge using synergic effect of parallel connected communication channels. Its main use is in producing communications products and services and in design of user interfaces. Main objective of this dissertation is to develop and create a model of multimedia communication for better understanding of the meaning and the purpose of using multimedia forms in communication process. The model will describe a system of elements and parameters of multimedia communication within the internal and external context. Another objective of this dissertation is to develop multimedia communication methodology that will be used for the design, development and evaluations of concepts of multimedia communication. The methodology will be created by applying the model of multimedia communication into the procedure structure. In theoretical way this dissertation is based on analysis of different definitions and approaches to the multimedia communications topic. This is followed by an analysis of communication theories, concepts of media, multimedia, delivery channels, and communication functions. The theoretical part is followed by the outcomes of the research in practice of four different fields of multimedia use. The knowledge gained is analyzed in the following parts in purpose of creating the model of multimedia communication and the methodology which is derived from the model. The methodology is further validated through case studies and the recommendations for further development are formulated. The model and the methodology of multimedia communication created in this dissertation present complex view on multimedia communication topic that is considered as a useful tool for meeting a specific communication purpose. Dissertation provides mechanics for use and study of multimedia communication and also defines the opportunities for further development of the methodology.
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Company's Requirements for Graduates - Software Developers
Trnková, Michaela ; Pecinovský, Rudolf (advisor) ; Pavlíčková, Jarmila (referee)
This thesis maps requirements that are imposed on software developer graduates. This goal is achieved by interviews with specialists from technological companies. A key part of the document is an evaluation of different methodologies of education of programming with a closer focus on a methodology Architecture-first. Approaches are evaluated from the company representatives' point of view, university programming teachers' point of view, and students' of informatics fields point of view. The main benefit of the thesis is a set of recommendations for teaching students as a result of developers' opinions and opinions of students who went through these programming subjects. The thesis includes recommendation for students, who are going to work as developers.
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Usage of unstructured data in Business Intelligence
Rakhmanova, Malika ; Šperková, Lucie (advisor) ; Karkošková, Soňa (referee)
The aim of the thesis is to identify the main trends that are occurring in the market of Business Intelligence and related to unstructured data, to describe the possibilities for integrating unstructured data, to clarify what the impact on the company have the results that can be obtained using these solutions and how generally incorporate an analysis of unstructured data into BI. Another aim is to show the current situation of processing unstructured data on the example of BI system. The thesis is divided into several parts. First part is describing of the Business Intelligence area and the basic components of Business Intelligence, as well as identifying market trends. Then, there is the next part: separating the data into structured and unstructured. Here is the part about how you can access and analyse unstructured data and what is their place in BI systems. This is the end of a block of unstructured data and the beginning of a description of the enhanced version of BI. Finally, the current market situation and BI tools, which include unstructured data, are introduced. This section provides an overview of how BI tools approach to analyse unstructured data. Existed literature, professional and freely available Internet resources are used for writing the work. The purpose is to serve as a source of information for quickly orienting in the current situation, to serve as a guide to the world of BI solutions and to show potential users what are the options and functionality of these BI solutions.
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Strategic analysis of a company RIO Media a.s.
Sláma, Jan ; Boukal, Petr (advisor) ; Krause, Josef (referee)
The aim of the Bachelor's Thesis is to undertake a strategic analysis of the company RIO Media, a.s. The analysis is performed for the period of 2011-2015 with regard to other periods, where it is beneficial. The analysis is done through external analysis, enriched with internal inputs. The analysis is divided into two main sections. First is dealing with theoretical and methodological approaches, which explain the various terms used, methods and their application form. Second part is practical, which builds on the previous section and uses these methods in practice. It also analyzes current trends and significant outputs are processed partly in the SWOT analysis and fully processed at the conclusion. The benefit of this work is to determine the company's position within the industry and to form recommendations for further improvement in this position.
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Support for Nurses in Death Cases at Resuscitation Units and Intensive Care Units
LAYEROVÁ, Helena
At Resuscitation Units and Intensive Care Units nurses face the issue of dying and death every day. Very often they are in contact with the dying and their immediate family and they are expected to have professional approach and provide comprehensive care. Stress that the nurses experience in these situations results into mental, emotional and physical exhaustion, and can be manifested by psychosomatic problems. Preparation of nurses to these situations and support of their management is therefore a key factor for the management of this demanding profession. The theoretical part of the thesis contains a description of the current state of the issue, characterizes resuscitation and intensive care, and deals with the issue of death and dying in Resuscitation Units nad Intensive Care Units, managing situations associated with death and the support of nurses in these situations. The work has four goals. The first objective is to determine what method of preparation of nurses is in practice ensured in Resuscitation Units and Intensive Care Units for the performance of high-quality nursing care for dying patients. Another objective is to determine whether and how the nurses are prepared and trained in the field of management of situations connected with the death of a patient in Resuscitation Units and Intensive Care Units. The third objective is, whether there is and what is the form of assistance to nurses in RU and ICU provided by the team and the management of the Department in case of deaths of patients, and the fourth objective is to determine what form and manner of support nurses expect and require. Research part of the thesis was carried out by quantitative investigation using an anonymous questionnaire. Respondents were answering 38 questions, 13 questions were closed, 21 half open and 4 were open. The support is most frequently understood as a psychological support, good teamwork, communication, supervision and representation where necessary. Management is expected primarily to provide support through education, ensuring supervision, corresponding financial support and professional psychological assistance where necessary. On the basis of this work?s results a proposal for the course for paramedical professions working in RS and ICU called ?Course of the Strategy of Difficult Situations Management in the Care for the Dying and Their Close Family in Intensive and Urgent Care?, was made.
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The capacity of the European Union to form a common foreign policy: The approach towards Russia during the crisis in Ukraine
Grycová, Adéla ; Rolenc, Jan Martin (advisor) ; Cibulková, Petra (referee)
The thesis deals with the issues of framing and europeanization of the foreign policy of the European Union in the context of an actorness of the EU. These two theoretical concepts are applied on the case of an approach of the Czech Republic and European Union towards Russian Federation during the crisis in Ukraine. The aim of this thesis is to find out if the European Union is capabble of affecting the behaviour of a member state in order to create unified and operational foreign policy. The first chapter deals with teoretical definition of the two concepts and detailed description of the stances of Czech Republic and European Union follows in the second one. On the basis of these chapters the assessment is conducted. The last part firstly concludes if any attempt of influecing is present and secondly the success rate of the attempt is evaluated.
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Application of Monte Carlo simulations in banking
Boruta, Matěj ; Teplý, Petr (advisor) ; Fučík, Vojtěch (referee)
Currently, banking is exposed to huge market risks. One of those risks is occurrence of negative interest rates in the EU. Nowadays, it is important to use sophisticated and modern measurement tools and approaches to measure and manage banking risks. One of those methods is Monte Carlo simulation. This bachelor thesis is aimed at analysis and prediction of 3-month maturity Prague Interest Offer Rate (PRIBOR) for 3, 6 and 12 months with using Monte Carlo simulations. It was found that this method is suitable for prediction market variables with low volatility. If anybody uses this method, it is necessity to have in mind all pitfalls and assumptions, that this method includes, as an adequate random generated number of scenarios, approximation of correct probability distribution, independence of dataset and not least, as far as possible, to focus on factors generating randomness of market variable and not the prices, that express rather consequences of randomness than its cause. Further, the Monte Carlo prediction was compared with prognosis of the Czech Nation Bank and it was found that Monte Carlo prediction is more accurate for short term predictions. 12-month prediction of Monte Carlo simulation discovered also possible occurrence of negative interest rate at 0,05% level of probability in compare to the Czech National Bank prognosis, where was no negative interest rate predicted.
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Analysis of Reporting in Business and its Technological Coverage by Microsoft BI
Lučan, Martin ; Pour, Jan (advisor) ; Pavlíčková, Jarmila (referee)
This master thesis deals with an analysis of reporting in business and its technological coverage by Microsoft Business Intelligence portfolio. The main objective of this work is to analyze the individual organization's requirements on reporting and coverage options. This work can serve as a tool for implementation of reporting in a company or for increasing the efficiency of reporting. The first part is theoretical. It deals with Business Intelligence as an environment for reporting. It also defines the basic concepts. The next part covers the area of reporting. This section provides an insight into the history, definition of outcomes and detailed classification of reporting from different perspectives. Furthermore, the definition of users reporting and the reporting standards in companies is also covered. At the end of this chapter, there is the definition of the benefits of reporting for companies. The main part of this master thesis is an analysis of the requirements for reporting in companies. The chapter defines five key perspectives which are described in a greater detail. The methods how companies should methodically approach these requirements are also discussed. The chapter further looks at the requirements for a concrete report. An output of this chapter is an effective template for gathering requirements for a specific report. The last chapter focuses on reporting portfolio analysis of Microsoft and defines the concept of Microsoft. It provides detailed information about reporting products that Microsoft offers. An analyses and a mapping of the individual characteristics of the products and the requirements is defined in this thesis.
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Consumers protection during the process of contracting
Kakáčková, Tereza ; Švarc, Zbyněk (advisor) ; Kříž, Radim (referee)
The main purpose of diploma thesis - Consumers protection during the process of contracting - was to analyze the consumer protection legislation at national level and European level. Thesis deals with consumers protection during the process of contracting in Czech Republic with closer focus on distance contracts and off-premises contracts. The general part of thesis provides a comprehensive insight into the private, public and European regulation of consumer law, as well as it summarizes basic concepts and consumer contracts more in detail. Two chapters of the general part are devoted to the distance contracts and to the off-premises contracts. Analytical part of thesis is based on quantitative research made by me. These results are compared with the results of two European surveys (Eurobarometers). The aim of the research was to define the attitude of Czech consumers to the consumer law, protection of the consumer rights and also find out more about their approach within the distance contracts.
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