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Use of Interest Rate Models for Interest Rate Risk Management in the Czech Financial Market Environment
Cíchová Králová, Dana ; Arlt, Josef (advisor) ; Cipra, Tomáš (referee) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee)
The main goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to interest rate risk modeling in the Czech financial market environment in various situations. Three distinct periods are analyzed. These periods, which are the period before the global financial crisis, period during the financial crisis and in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and calming subsequent debt crisis in the eurozone, are characterized by different evaluation of liquidity and credit risk, different relationship between financial variables and market participants and different degree of market regulations. Within this goal, an application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment is crucial. Use of the BGM model for the purpose of predicting a dynamics of a yield curve is not very common. This is firstly due to the fact that primary use of this model is a valuation of interest rate derivatives while ensuring the absence of arbitrage and secondly its application is relatively difficult. Nevertheless, I apply the BGM model to obtain predictions of the probability distributions of interest rates in the Czech and eurozone market environment, because its complexity, direct modeling of a yield curve based on market rates and especially a possibility of parameter estimation based on current swaptions volatilities quotations may lead to a significant improvement of predictions. This improvement was also confirmed in this thesis. Use of swaptions volatilities market quotations is especially useful in the period of unprecedented mone- tary easing and increased number of central banks and other regulators interventions into financial markets that occur after the financial crisis, because it reflects current market expectations which also include future interventions. As a consequence of underdevelopment of the Czech financial market there are no market quotations of Czech koruna denominated swaptions volatilities. I suggest their approximations based on quotations of euro denominated swaptions volatilities and also using volatilities of koruna and euro forward rates. Use of this approach ensures that predictions of the Czech yield curve dynamics contain current market expectations. To my knowledge, any other author has not presented similar application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment. In this thesis I further predict a Czech and Euro area money market yield curve dynamics using the CIR and the GP models as representatives of various types of interest rates models to compare these predictions with BGM predictions. I suggest a comprehensive system of three criteria, based on comparison of predicti- ons with reality, to describe a predictive power of selected models and an appropria- teness of their use in the Czech market environment during different situations in the market. This analysis shows that predictions of the Czech money market yield curve dynamics based on the BGM model demonstrate high predictive power and the best 8 quality in comparison with other models. GP model also produces relatively good qua- lity predictions. Conversely, predictions based on the CIR model as a representative of short rate model family completely failed when describing reality. In a situation when the economy allows negative rates and there is simultaneously a significant likelihood of their implementation, I recommend to obtain predictions of Czech money market yield curve dynamics using GP model which allows existence of negative interest rates. This analysis also contains a statistical test for validating the predictive power of each model and information on other tests. Berkowitz test rejects a hypothesis of accurate predictions for each model. However, this fact is common in real data testing even when using relatively good model. This fact is especially caused by difficult fulfilment of test conditions in real world. To my knowledge, such an analysis of the predictive power of selected interest rate models moreover in the Czech financial market environment has not been published yet. The last goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to obtaining pre- dictions of Czech government bonds risk premium dynamics. I define this risk premium as a difference between government bond yields and fixed rate of CZK IRS with the same length. I apply the GP model to describe the dynamics of this indicator of the Czech Republic credit risk. In order to obtain a time series of the risk premium which are necessary for estimation of GP model parameters I firstly estimate yield curves of Czech government bonds using Svensson model for each trading day since 2005. Resulting si- mulations of risk premium show that the GP model predicts the real development of risk premiums of all maturities relatively well. Hence, the proposed approach is suitable for modeling of Czech Republic credit risk based on the use of information extracted from financial markets. I have not registered proposed approach to risk premium modeling moreover in the Czech financial market environment in other publications.
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Optimalization of material flow in automotive industry
Kolář, Tomáš ; Jirsák, Petr (advisor) ; Vinš, Marek (referee)
This master thesis is focussed on optimalization of material flow in an automotive company. First part introduce theoretical background. Automotive industry and its actual trends on global markets. Follows short introduction of the company where project of this thesis was executed. Main theoretical part describes concept of lean management, its tools in practical examples, but it is also focussed on philosophical approach to the work and mindset of the company. Follows the aplication part based on theoretical background. The whole project of this master thesis is focussed on specific area called PC store. At first this area is showed in context of overall material flow. Shortly there are introduced processes and areas where full material packaging flows. Follows deeper analysis and optimalization of PC store itself. There are three approaches of stock and lead time reduction applied. Last part shows the comparison of initial and future state including performed changes.
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Výběr a implementace open source nástroje pro řízení portfolia projektů
Marek, Jan ; Chlapek, Dušan (advisor) ; Kučera, Jan (referee)
Methods and ways of implementation of changes and innovations in companies through project management are in today's society very well established. There exists methodologies, techniques and tools for the management of individual projects. However in a role of project manager, I very often faced the fact that companies are performing the project portfolio management in very intuitive way. This in itself leads to failed and prematurely terminated projects, initiation of the wrong projects or realisation of correct projects, but at the wrong time. Very often I have also recognized, that there is lack of awareness of fact, that there are also Open Source applications that can help with the organization's portfolio. This thesis deals with the definition of requirements, search and selection of proper OSS application and subsequent implementation. In the first part of this thesis I prepare a theoretical framework about PPM, and on that basis then identify and verify a set of requirements for selection of right OSS PPM application. The next section of thesis describes searching for suitable applications from a variety of sources, assessment against the requirements and the final selection. In the last part the implementation project is drafted, which aims to serve other colleagues in project management as one of the possible implementation paths. The outputs are then continuously confronted with experts in matter of projects and project management in the field of IT in order to maximize symbiosis between theory and real life experiences. Virtually every project management methodology defines the collection of already-proven techniques, best practices or lessons learned from the previous similar implementations. The main contribution of this thesis I see in fact that it contains not only the design of the project implementation, but also describes a logical path, what leads to the result. Therefore this thesis could be used as a base or discussed best practice, when a project of implementation of PPM application in place.
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ELECTRON BEAM REMELTING OF PLASMA SPRAYED ALUMINA COATINGS
Matějíček, Jiří ; Veverka, J. ; Čížek, J. ; Kouřil, J.
Plasma sprayed alumina coatings find numerous applications in various fields, where they enhance the properties of the base material. Examples include thermal barriers, wear resistance, electrical insulation, and diffusion and corrosion barriers. A typical structure of plasma sprayed coatings, containing a multitude of voids and imperfectly bonded interfaces, gives them unique properties - particularly low thermal conductivity, high strain tolerance, etc. However, for certain applications such as permeation barriers or wear resistance, these voids may be detrimental.\nThis paper reports on the first experiments with remelting of plasma sprayed alumina coatings by electron beam technology, with the purpose of densifying the coatings and thereby eliminating the voids. Throughout the study, several parameters of the e-beam device were varied - beam current, traverse velocity and number of passes. The treated coatings were observed by light and electron microscopy and the thickness, structure and surface morphology of the remelted layer were determined and correlated with the process parameters. Based on the first series of experiments, the e-beam settings leading to dense and smooth remelted layer of sufficient thickness were obtained. In this layer, a change of phase composition and a marked increase in hardness were observed.\n
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Modelling, parameter estimation, optimisation and control of transport and reaction processes in bioreactors.
ŠTUMBAUER, Václav
With the significant potential of microalgae as a major biofuel source of the future, a considerable scientific attention is attracted towards the field of biotechnology and bioprocess engineering. Nevertheless the current photobioreactor (PBR) design methods are still too empirical. With this work I would like to promote the idea of designing a production system, such as a PBR, completely \emph{in silico}, thus allowing for the in silico optimization and optimal control determination. The thesis deals with the PBR modeling and simulation. It addresses two crucial issues in the current state-of-the-art PBR modeling. The first issue relevant to the deficiency of the currently available models - the incorrect or insufficient treatment of either the transport process modeling, the reaction modeling or the coupling between these two models. A correct treatment of both the transport and the reaction phenomena is proposed in the thesis - in the form of a unified modeling framework consisting of three interconnected parts - (i) the state system, (ii) the fluid-dynamic model and (iii) optimal control determination. The proposed model structure allows prediction of the PBR performance with respect to the modelled PBR size, geometry, operating conditions or a particular microalgae strain. The proposed unified modeling approach is applied to the case of the Couette-Taylor photobioreactor (CTBR) where it is used for the optimal control solution. The PBR represents a complex multiscale problem and especially in the case of the production scale systems, the associated computational costs are paramount. This is the second crucial issue addressed in the thesis. With respect to the computational complexity, the fluid dynamics simulation is the most costly part of the PBR simulation. To model the fluid flow with the classical CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) methods inside a production scale PBR leads to an enormous grid size. This usually requires a parallel implementation of the solver but in the parallelization of the classical methods lies another relevant issue - that of the amount of data the individual nodes must interchange with each other. The thesis addresses the performance relevant issues by proposing and evaluation alternative approaches to the fluid flow simulation. These approaches are more suitable to the parallel implementation than the classical methods because of their rather local character in comparison to the classical methods - namely the Lattice Boltzmann Method (LBM) for fluid flow, which is the primary focus of the thesis in this regard and alternatively also the discrete random walk based method (DRW). As the outcome of the thesis I have developed and validated a new Lagrangian general modeling approach to the transport and reaction processes in PBR - a framework based on the Lattice Boltzmann method (LBM) and the model of the Photosynthetic Factory (PSF) that models correctly the transport and reaction processes and their coupling. Further I have implemented a software prototype based on the proposed modeling approach and validated this prototype on the case of the Coutte-Taylor PBR. I have also demonstrated that the modeling approach has a significant potential from the computational costs point of view by implementing and validating the software prototype on the parallel architecture of CUDA (Compute Unified Device Architecture). The current parallel implementation is approximately 20 times faster than the unparallized one and decreases thus significantly the iteration cycle of the PBR design process.
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Global Economy Outlook - December 2016
Česká národní banka
Global Economic Outlook presents the regular monthly overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. In this issue, we also focus on a major phenomenon of the day: the migration of people into Europe, and Germany in particular. In this context, we present an analysis of the effect of the increased number of refugees on the German labour market. We show, among other things, that the incoming migrants will be far from enough to cover the demand for labour in Germany and also that they will compete more with workers arriving in search of jobs in Germany from Central and Eastern European countries than with German citizens.
Fulltext:  PDF; PDF
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Association of Idependent Theatres of the Czech Republic – Analysis and Description of the Current State
Bodoríková, Markéta ; KAŠPAR, David (advisor) ; PROKOP, Petr (referee)
The thesis is focused on newly established Association of Independent Theaters of the Czech Republic, officially using the abbreviation AND ČR. The aim of the thesis is to describe formation of the association, its current state, future plans and its functioning. The first part examines the term “independent professional theater” and briefly characterizes selected organizations from the Czech Republic and Europe with the potential to meet with the AND ČR in the cultural area in future. In the following parts were researched needs of independent professional scene in Prague and was described the needs analysis for the field of “independent” theater from the year 2013. The thesis describes the development of AND ČR, its activities up to current stage, organizational structure and future short-term plans. In the final part of the thesis, there is defined the management system of the association and established its possible improvements so the AND ČR would become the leading organization representing independent professional theaters in the Czech Republic.
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FAUST AND JOB´S
Slezáková, Kateřina ; ULLRICHOVÁ, Daria (advisor) ; SÍLOVÁ, Zuzana (referee)
This thesis examins the nature of Faust’s inner ambivalence in the context of modern times. It tries to identify the basic traits leading to the feeling of emptiness. The authoress uses comparing the dramatic character of Faust with his biblical prototype of Job and one of the most successful entrepreneurs today Steve Jobs. Based on the comparison she contemplates the validity or mutation of the drawing theses nowadays. In the second part the authoress reflects the production of the project of Faust. Due to her specialization in the field of dramaturgy she pursues especially the process of the selection of particular dramatic situations, adjustments of dramatic text and the choice of suitable staging means.
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Fluidized-bed Combustion of Dry Stabilized Sewage Sludge in Oxy-fuel Mode
Moško, Jaroslav ; Pohořelý, Michael ; Durda, Tomáš ; Zach, Boleslav ; Šyc, Michal ; Svoboda, Karel
Sewage sludge is an inevitable waste stream from wastewater treatment and its disposal is complicated due to specific characteristics of its composition. Sewage sludge combustion/incineration is the only suitable way for disposal of large volumes of sewage sludge containing POPs and some heavy metals. Sewage sludge combustion reduces the volume of such waste and causes destruction of organic contaminants. Oxy-fuel combustion is a technology for simplifying CO2 sequestration from the flue gas by using nearly pure oxygen instead of air for the combustion. In order to control the combustion temperature, part of the flue gas is recycled to combustion chamber. The paper brings information about investigation of the effects of combustion temperature and concentration of oxygen in inlet combustion media on the emissions of NOx, N2O and SO2 in FB combustion of sewage sludge. The experimental results have shown that an increase in combustion temperature leads to an increase in NOx and to a decrease in N2O emissions in the temperature range 750–930 °C. The lowest SO2 emissions were measured in the temperature interval from 800 to 820 °C in all experiments with different oxygen concentration in inlet gas. It was found that when the oxygen concentration in inlet gas increased, the emissions of SO2 increased while emissions of NOx slightly decreased.
Fulltext: content.csg - PDF
Plný tet: SKMBT_C22016112214480 - PDF
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Comparison of Atmospheric Aerosol Volatility at a Suburban and Rural Measurement Site.
Kubelová, Lucie ; Vodička, Petr ; Schwarz, Jaroslav ; Makeš, Otakar ; Ždímal, Vladimír
One of the most important characteristics of atmospheric aerosols is their volatility. Volatility affects the formation, life time, and removal of aerosol particles (Huffman et al., 2009). Accurate description of volatility of atmospheric aerosols can lead to a better identification of their sources and it is also crucial for models incorporating condensation and aging of aerosols. However, there is still a lack of knowledge regarding aerosol properties such as volatility especially in case of organic aerosols. To increase our understanding of aerosols volatility, we have performed summer (21.8.-2.10.2012; 17.6.-18.8.2014) and winter (19.2.-28.5.2013; 9.1.-13.3.2014) measurement campaigns with a thermodenuder at a suburban site in Prague Suchdol and at a rural site Košetice, respectively.
Fulltext: content.csg - PDF
Plný tet: SKMBT_C22016102412230 - PDF
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