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Use of Interest Rate Models for Interest Rate Risk Management in the Czech Financial Market Environment
Cíchová Králová, Dana ; Arlt, Josef (advisor) ; Cipra, Tomáš (referee) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee)
The main goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to interest rate risk modeling in the Czech financial market environment in various situations. Three distinct periods are analyzed. These periods, which are the period before the global financial crisis, period during the financial crisis and in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and calming subsequent debt crisis in the eurozone, are characterized by different evaluation of liquidity and credit risk, different relationship between financial variables and market participants and different degree of market regulations. Within this goal, an application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment is crucial. Use of the BGM model for the purpose of predicting a dynamics of a yield curve is not very common. This is firstly due to the fact that primary use of this model is a valuation of interest rate derivatives while ensuring the absence of arbitrage and secondly its application is relatively difficult. Nevertheless, I apply the BGM model to obtain predictions of the probability distributions of interest rates in the Czech and eurozone market environment, because its complexity, direct modeling of a yield curve based on market rates and especially a possibility of parameter estimation based on current swaptions volatilities quotations may lead to a significant improvement of predictions. This improvement was also confirmed in this thesis. Use of swaptions volatilities market quotations is especially useful in the period of unprecedented mone- tary easing and increased number of central banks and other regulators interventions into financial markets that occur after the financial crisis, because it reflects current market expectations which also include future interventions. As a consequence of underdevelopment of the Czech financial market there are no market quotations of Czech koruna denominated swaptions volatilities. I suggest their approximations based on quotations of euro denominated swaptions volatilities and also using volatilities of koruna and euro forward rates. Use of this approach ensures that predictions of the Czech yield curve dynamics contain current market expectations. To my knowledge, any other author has not presented similar application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment. In this thesis I further predict a Czech and Euro area money market yield curve dynamics using the CIR and the GP models as representatives of various types of interest rates models to compare these predictions with BGM predictions. I suggest a comprehensive system of three criteria, based on comparison of predicti- ons with reality, to describe a predictive power of selected models and an appropria- teness of their use in the Czech market environment during different situations in the market. This analysis shows that predictions of the Czech money market yield curve dynamics based on the BGM model demonstrate high predictive power and the best 8 quality in comparison with other models. GP model also produces relatively good qua- lity predictions. Conversely, predictions based on the CIR model as a representative of short rate model family completely failed when describing reality. In a situation when the economy allows negative rates and there is simultaneously a significant likelihood of their implementation, I recommend to obtain predictions of Czech money market yield curve dynamics using GP model which allows existence of negative interest rates. This analysis also contains a statistical test for validating the predictive power of each model and information on other tests. Berkowitz test rejects a hypothesis of accurate predictions for each model. However, this fact is common in real data testing even when using relatively good model. This fact is especially caused by difficult fulfilment of test conditions in real world. To my knowledge, such an analysis of the predictive power of selected interest rate models moreover in the Czech financial market environment has not been published yet. The last goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to obtaining pre- dictions of Czech government bonds risk premium dynamics. I define this risk premium as a difference between government bond yields and fixed rate of CZK IRS with the same length. I apply the GP model to describe the dynamics of this indicator of the Czech Republic credit risk. In order to obtain a time series of the risk premium which are necessary for estimation of GP model parameters I firstly estimate yield curves of Czech government bonds using Svensson model for each trading day since 2005. Resulting si- mulations of risk premium show that the GP model predicts the real development of risk premiums of all maturities relatively well. Hence, the proposed approach is suitable for modeling of Czech Republic credit risk based on the use of information extracted from financial markets. I have not registered proposed approach to risk premium modeling moreover in the Czech financial market environment in other publications.
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Multimedia communication
Vondra, Zdeněk ; Horný, Stanislav (advisor) ; Skrbek, Jan (referee) ; Jurášková, Olga (referee)
Multimedia is a form of communication and sharing knowledge using synergic effect of parallel connected communication channels. Its main use is in producing communications products and services and in design of user interfaces. Main objective of this dissertation is to develop and create a model of multimedia communication for better understanding of the meaning and the purpose of using multimedia forms in communication process. The model will describe a system of elements and parameters of multimedia communication within the internal and external context. Another objective of this dissertation is to develop multimedia communication methodology that will be used for the design, development and evaluations of concepts of multimedia communication. The methodology will be created by applying the model of multimedia communication into the procedure structure. In theoretical way this dissertation is based on analysis of different definitions and approaches to the multimedia communications topic. This is followed by an analysis of communication theories, concepts of media, multimedia, delivery channels, and communication functions. The theoretical part is followed by the outcomes of the research in practice of four different fields of multimedia use. The knowledge gained is analyzed in the following parts in purpose of creating the model of multimedia communication and the methodology which is derived from the model. The methodology is further validated through case studies and the recommendations for further development are formulated. The model and the methodology of multimedia communication created in this dissertation present complex view on multimedia communication topic that is considered as a useful tool for meeting a specific communication purpose. Dissertation provides mechanics for use and study of multimedia communication and also defines the opportunities for further development of the methodology.
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Support for Nurses in Death Cases at Resuscitation Units and Intensive Care Units
LAYEROVÁ, Helena
At Resuscitation Units and Intensive Care Units nurses face the issue of dying and death every day. Very often they are in contact with the dying and their immediate family and they are expected to have professional approach and provide comprehensive care. Stress that the nurses experience in these situations results into mental, emotional and physical exhaustion, and can be manifested by psychosomatic problems. Preparation of nurses to these situations and support of their management is therefore a key factor for the management of this demanding profession. The theoretical part of the thesis contains a description of the current state of the issue, characterizes resuscitation and intensive care, and deals with the issue of death and dying in Resuscitation Units nad Intensive Care Units, managing situations associated with death and the support of nurses in these situations. The work has four goals. The first objective is to determine what method of preparation of nurses is in practice ensured in Resuscitation Units and Intensive Care Units for the performance of high-quality nursing care for dying patients. Another objective is to determine whether and how the nurses are prepared and trained in the field of management of situations connected with the death of a patient in Resuscitation Units and Intensive Care Units. The third objective is, whether there is and what is the form of assistance to nurses in RU and ICU provided by the team and the management of the Department in case of deaths of patients, and the fourth objective is to determine what form and manner of support nurses expect and require. Research part of the thesis was carried out by quantitative investigation using an anonymous questionnaire. Respondents were answering 38 questions, 13 questions were closed, 21 half open and 4 were open. The support is most frequently understood as a psychological support, good teamwork, communication, supervision and representation where necessary. Management is expected primarily to provide support through education, ensuring supervision, corresponding financial support and professional psychological assistance where necessary. On the basis of this work?s results a proposal for the course for paramedical professions working in RS and ICU called ?Course of the Strategy of Difficult Situations Management in the Care for the Dying and Their Close Family in Intensive and Urgent Care?, was made.
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The capacity of the European Union to form a common foreign policy: The approach towards Russia during the crisis in Ukraine
Grycová, Adéla ; Rolenc, Jan Martin (advisor) ; Cibulková, Petra (referee)
The thesis deals with the issues of framing and europeanization of the foreign policy of the European Union in the context of an actorness of the EU. These two theoretical concepts are applied on the case of an approach of the Czech Republic and European Union towards Russian Federation during the crisis in Ukraine. The aim of this thesis is to find out if the European Union is capabble of affecting the behaviour of a member state in order to create unified and operational foreign policy. The first chapter deals with teoretical definition of the two concepts and detailed description of the stances of Czech Republic and European Union follows in the second one. On the basis of these chapters the assessment is conducted. The last part firstly concludes if any attempt of influecing is present and secondly the success rate of the attempt is evaluated.
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Geodiversity values as a basis for geosite and geomorphosite assessment: a case study from Žďárské vrchy Highland
Bajer, A. ; Kirchner, Karel ; Kubalíková, L.
Paper presents geodiversity values, geodiversity is understood as a set of geological, geomorphological and pedological components, including systems consisting of this components and geological, geomorphological and pedological processes. Geodiversity values are analyzed in relation to ecosystem values (e.g. cultural, functional value). Geodiversity values were used as basis for a methodical approach to geosite and geomorphosite assessment. Methodological approach is presented at selected sites in the top part of the Žďárské vrchy Highland. The acquired results can serve as a basis for geoconservation of PLA Žďárské vrchy, development of geotourism as well as an offer for extension geoeducational activities.\n
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Teaching the theme human parasites on grammar school.
Houšková, Barbora ; Janštová, Vanda (advisor) ; Havlová, Michaela (referee)
Nowdays, when people travel all around the world and they can become infected with different parasites, teaching about human parasites shouldn't be neglected even in education on primary and grammar schools. In my work, I have mapped the basic knowledge of parasitology and human parasites of students from the selected primary schools and lower grades of grammar schools. For this purpose, I have created a test which examined the knowledge and attitude of the students. The work has also sought to propose a new approach to teaching of the subject in biology lessons. Two different teaching concepts were tested and compared in two paralel classes of the same grammar school. Presented representatives of human parasites, were chosen on the basis of analysis of biology textbooks for basic schools. Final suggestion of teaching at schools, which was teste dat three schools contains powerpoint presentations suitable for use in the lessons and practical exercise taken like didactical games.
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Effect of snowpack on runoff generation during rain on snow event.
Juras, Roman ; Máca, Petr (advisor) ; Ladislav , Ladislav (referee)
During a winter season, when snow covers the watershed, the frequency of rain-on-snow (ROS) events is still raising. ROS can cause severe natural hazards like floods or wet avalanches. Prediction of ROS effects is linked to better understanding of snowpack runoff dynamics and its composition. Deploying rainfall simulation together with hydrological tracers was tested as a convenient tool for this purpose. Overall 18 sprinkling experiments were conducted on snow featuring different initial conditions in mountainous regions over middle and western Europe.
Dye tracer brilliant blue (FCF) was used for flow regime determination, because it enables to visualise preferential paths and layers interface. Snowpack runoff composition was assessed by hydrograph separation method, which provided appropriate results with acceptable uncertainty. It was not possible to use concurrently these two techniques because of technical reasons, however it would extend our gained knowledge. Snowmelt water amount in the snowpack runoff was estimated by energy balance (EB) equation, which is very efficient but quality inputs demanding. This was also the reason, why EB was deployed within only single experiment.
Timing of snowpack runoff onset decrease mainly with the rain intensity. Initial snowpack properties like bulk density or wetness are less important for time of runoff generation compared to the rain intensity. On the other het when same rain intensity was applied, non-ripe snowpack featuring less bulk density created runoff faster than the ripe snowpack featuring higher bulk density. Snowpack runoff magnitude mainly depends on the snowpack initial saturation. Ripe snowpack with higher saturation enabled to generate higher cumulative runoff where contributed by max 50 %. In contrary, rainwater travelled through the non-ripe snowpack relatively fast and contributed runoff by approx. 80 %.
Runoff prediction was tested by deploying Richards equation included in SNOWPACK model. The model was modified using a dual-domain approach to better simulate snowpack runoff under preferential flow conditions. Presented approach demonstrated an improvement in all simulated aspects compared to the more traditional method when only matrix flow is considered.
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Managerial skills
Červinková, Barbora ; Kříž, Josef (advisor) ; Zdeněk, Zdeněk (referee)
The theoretical basis of this thesis explains the terms closely associated with the management and managerial skills. Introductory part relates to approach the concept itself and the executive management, we are further broken down managerial functions, which are continuously illuminates to describe other skills, such as communication, goal setting, skills and coaching. The main point is to approach the concepts of soft and hard skills that managers should possess, or which should in the course of his practice to learn. Only by careful control of both of these groups of skills can lead to good organization. For a clearer explanation of the managerial skills included graphic view, which approximates the distribution of skills. In the second part, a practical part, described the situation with the existing skills of managers in the selected company. Thanks to the questionnaire, it is possible to measure the current level of acquired skills of managers at three levels and can be evaluated, what is the interest of improving individual skills, or whether managers feel sufficiently qualified for their job positions.
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Design of Experiment for Non-Stationary Processes of Production
Jadrná, Monika ; Macák, Tomáš (advisor)
The doctoral thesis is concerned with the services sector and the area of mass production. Particularly, the optimization of the product portfolio of the travel agency and the optimization of production rounds of ammunition.
The theoretical part deals with the current overview of discussed topic. Further, the terminology and methods of the decision-making process are defined to support decision making. The theoretical basis of research focused on the choice of appropriate input variables in the area of services, and on the choice of a particular material option in the production area and appropriate equipment for the production. The theoretical part forms the basis for the practical part of the thesis.
For the doctoral thesis was chosen an enterprise operating in the defined sector. Product portfolio for the services sector is optimised using Fuzzy logic and Fuzzy sets so that the enterprise can maintain its competitiveness in todays highly ambitious market. Product portfolio for manufacture is optimised for achieving desired properties of the product.
The main aim of the thesis is to propose a new methodological approach for the management of selected business processes in their nonstationary time course. The aim of the practical implementation is to verify the functionality of the proposed methodological approach, both in the area of services and in the field of mass production.
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