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Use of Interest Rate Models for Interest Rate Risk Management in the Czech Financial Market Environment
Cíchová Králová, Dana ; Arlt, Josef (advisor) ; Cipra, Tomáš (referee) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee)
The main goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to interest rate risk modeling in the Czech financial market environment in various situations. Three distinct periods are analyzed. These periods, which are the period before the global financial crisis, period during the financial crisis and in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and calming subsequent debt crisis in the eurozone, are characterized by different evaluation of liquidity and credit risk, different relationship between financial variables and market participants and different degree of market regulations. Within this goal, an application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment is crucial. Use of the BGM model for the purpose of predicting a dynamics of a yield curve is not very common. This is firstly due to the fact that primary use of this model is a valuation of interest rate derivatives while ensuring the absence of arbitrage and secondly its application is relatively difficult. Nevertheless, I apply the BGM model to obtain predictions of the probability distributions of interest rates in the Czech and eurozone market environment, because its complexity, direct modeling of a yield curve based on market rates and especially a possibility of parameter estimation based on current swaptions volatilities quotations may lead to a significant improvement of predictions. This improvement was also confirmed in this thesis. Use of swaptions volatilities market quotations is especially useful in the period of unprecedented mone- tary easing and increased number of central banks and other regulators interventions into financial markets that occur after the financial crisis, because it reflects current market expectations which also include future interventions. As a consequence of underdevelopment of the Czech financial market there are no market quotations of Czech koruna denominated swaptions volatilities. I suggest their approximations based on quotations of euro denominated swaptions volatilities and also using volatilities of koruna and euro forward rates. Use of this approach ensures that predictions of the Czech yield curve dynamics contain current market expectations. To my knowledge, any other author has not presented similar application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment. In this thesis I further predict a Czech and Euro area money market yield curve dynamics using the CIR and the GP models as representatives of various types of interest rates models to compare these predictions with BGM predictions. I suggest a comprehensive system of three criteria, based on comparison of predicti- ons with reality, to describe a predictive power of selected models and an appropria- teness of their use in the Czech market environment during different situations in the market. This analysis shows that predictions of the Czech money market yield curve dynamics based on the BGM model demonstrate high predictive power and the best 8 quality in comparison with other models. GP model also produces relatively good qua- lity predictions. Conversely, predictions based on the CIR model as a representative of short rate model family completely failed when describing reality. In a situation when the economy allows negative rates and there is simultaneously a significant likelihood of their implementation, I recommend to obtain predictions of Czech money market yield curve dynamics using GP model which allows existence of negative interest rates. This analysis also contains a statistical test for validating the predictive power of each model and information on other tests. Berkowitz test rejects a hypothesis of accurate predictions for each model. However, this fact is common in real data testing even when using relatively good model. This fact is especially caused by difficult fulfilment of test conditions in real world. To my knowledge, such an analysis of the predictive power of selected interest rate models moreover in the Czech financial market environment has not been published yet. The last goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to obtaining pre- dictions of Czech government bonds risk premium dynamics. I define this risk premium as a difference between government bond yields and fixed rate of CZK IRS with the same length. I apply the GP model to describe the dynamics of this indicator of the Czech Republic credit risk. In order to obtain a time series of the risk premium which are necessary for estimation of GP model parameters I firstly estimate yield curves of Czech government bonds using Svensson model for each trading day since 2005. Resulting si- mulations of risk premium show that the GP model predicts the real development of risk premiums of all maturities relatively well. Hence, the proposed approach is suitable for modeling of Czech Republic credit risk based on the use of information extracted from financial markets. I have not registered proposed approach to risk premium modeling moreover in the Czech financial market environment in other publications.
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Usage of unstructured data in Business Intelligence
Rakhmanova, Malika ; Šperková, Lucie (advisor) ; Karkošková, Soňa (referee)
The aim of the thesis is to identify the main trends that are occurring in the market of Business Intelligence and related to unstructured data, to describe the possibilities for integrating unstructured data, to clarify what the impact on the company have the results that can be obtained using these solutions and how generally incorporate an analysis of unstructured data into BI. Another aim is to show the current situation of processing unstructured data on the example of BI system. The thesis is divided into several parts. First part is describing of the Business Intelligence area and the basic components of Business Intelligence, as well as identifying market trends. Then, there is the next part: separating the data into structured and unstructured. Here is the part about how you can access and analyse unstructured data and what is their place in BI systems. This is the end of a block of unstructured data and the beginning of a description of the enhanced version of BI. Finally, the current market situation and BI tools, which include unstructured data, are introduced. This section provides an overview of how BI tools approach to analyse unstructured data. Existed literature, professional and freely available Internet resources are used for writing the work. The purpose is to serve as a source of information for quickly orienting in the current situation, to serve as a guide to the world of BI solutions and to show potential users what are the options and functionality of these BI solutions.
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Analysis, design and implementation of CRM solutions for selected company
Ilavský, Dávid ; Pour, Jan (advisor) ; Šedivá, Zuzana (referee)
Bachelor thesis focuses on the area of information systems, which are used to support customer relationship management in companies. The main objective of this work is to provide a sample of solution for CRM system implementation for real customer from the banking sector. The first part defines basic functional areas of any CRM application. Each of these areas is described in more detail in terms of its primary use and tasks that within the CRM as a whole performs. Further is described the analytical area of CRM application (or Customer Intelligence), which is gradually playing a key role in the entire CRM system in past few years. It includes its potential uses in various fields. At the end of the theoretical part, the author compares the fundamental differences between cloud model of deployment and traditional on-premise solution. The practical part focuses on the main objective of the thesis and description of the supplied solution in the form of a module, which extends the existing CRM application with the option for business partners registration of Hypoteční banka, a. s. and ČSOB Pojišťovna, centralized in one system. The requirement is build in Microsoft Dynamics CRM 2011 and as the source system it is used CRM system of Hypoteční banka, a. s..
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Design of processes of business department in IT company and measuring their performance
Schütz, Martin ; Oškrdal, Václav (advisor) ; Bruckner, Tomáš (referee)
The thesis deals with design of new processes of business department in IT company which provides server hosting, web hosting and domain registration services. These processes come from identification and analysis of current processes and the theory of business department management. Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) were set for selected processes which can be used for managing the company as a whole. Models of processes were created due to EPC notation. New processes were designed to continuously create data in CRM information system providing evidential and information support necessary for business department management, including the possibility of measuring its performance. Processes also automatize often repetitive activities and provide relevant information to other affected business units within the company. Contribution of the thesis lies in results of analysis of current identified processes containing solution proposals of discovered problems and newly created process models. Both can be used as a pattern for optimization of current processes in already existing organization or for designing new process models in new organization in the same or similar field of business.
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Possibilities of Big Data use for Competitive Intelligence
Verníček, Marek ; Molnár, Zdeněk (advisor) ; Šperková, Lucie (referee)
The main purpose of this thesis is to investigate the use of Big Data for the methods and procedures of Competitive Intelligence. Among the goals of the work is a toolkit for small and large businesses which is supposed to support their work with the whole process of Big Data work. Another goal is to design an effective solution of processing Big Data to gain a competitive advantage in business. The theoretical part of the work processes available scientific literature in the Czech Republic and abroad as well as describes the current state of Competitive Intelligence, and Big Data as one of its possible sources. Subsequently, the work deals with the characteristics of Big Data, the differences from working with common data, the need for a thorough preparation and Big Data applicability for the methods of Competitive Intelligence. The practical part is focused on analysis of Big Data tools available in the market with regard to the whole process from data collection to the analysis report preparation and integration of the entire solution into an automated state. The outcome of this part is the Big Data software toolkit for small and large businesses based on their budget. The final part of the work is devoted to the classification of the most promising business areas, which can benefit from the use of Big Data the most in order to gain competitive advantages and proposes the most effective solution of working with Big Data. Among other benefits of this work are expansion of the range of resources for Competitive Intelligence and in-depth analysis of possibilities of Big Data usage, designed to help professionals make use of this hitherto untapped potential to improve market position, gain new customers and strengthen the existing user base.
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Výběr a implementace open source nástroje pro řízení portfolia projektů
Marek, Jan ; Chlapek, Dušan (advisor) ; Kučera, Jan (referee)
Methods and ways of implementation of changes and innovations in companies through project management are in today's society very well established. There exists methodologies, techniques and tools for the management of individual projects. However in a role of project manager, I very often faced the fact that companies are performing the project portfolio management in very intuitive way. This in itself leads to failed and prematurely terminated projects, initiation of the wrong projects or realisation of correct projects, but at the wrong time. Very often I have also recognized, that there is lack of awareness of fact, that there are also Open Source applications that can help with the organization's portfolio. This thesis deals with the definition of requirements, search and selection of proper OSS application and subsequent implementation. In the first part of this thesis I prepare a theoretical framework about PPM, and on that basis then identify and verify a set of requirements for selection of right OSS PPM application. The next section of thesis describes searching for suitable applications from a variety of sources, assessment against the requirements and the final selection. In the last part the implementation project is drafted, which aims to serve other colleagues in project management as one of the possible implementation paths. The outputs are then continuously confronted with experts in matter of projects and project management in the field of IT in order to maximize symbiosis between theory and real life experiences. Virtually every project management methodology defines the collection of already-proven techniques, best practices or lessons learned from the previous similar implementations. The main contribution of this thesis I see in fact that it contains not only the design of the project implementation, but also describes a logical path, what leads to the result. Therefore this thesis could be used as a base or discussed best practice, when a project of implementation of PPM application in place.
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Psychometric characteristics of Youth Self-Report in clinical sample
Urbánek, Tomáš ; Čermák, Ivo ; Štěpánek, Petr ; Schmidtová, Jana
The paper deals with reliability and validity analyses of the Youth Self-Report questionnaire by Thomas M. Achenbach. It is a method comprising eleven subscales, mostly syndromes of pathological conduct of children and adolescents. The data were obtained from the psychiatric patients (girls) from 12 to 18 years, most of them were exposed to family violence and abuse. The analyses of internal consistency and correlation analyses supporting the empirical validity of scales were conducted.
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Height measurement in the northern area of mining areas Doubrava and Karviná Mines In 2016
Kajzar, Vlastimil ; Waclawik, Petr ; Staš, Lubomír
In the northern area of mining areas Doubrava and Karvina mines on the border RA Detmarovice and Doubrava are implemented, the mining activities. For this reason, in order to detect possible effects of the mine to the surface and surface objects twice a year height focuses, points in this area stable. From 2014 he was a contractor for these works chosen by the Institute of Geonics, v.v.i., Ostrava. In August and November 2016 survey conducted campaigns planned this year, during which it conducted a total of 4 highrise focus of inter-related leveling routes, which are formed by these points. Highrise points are stabilized in the area of interest in several ways - usually in steel design height marks on buildings, then as an iron bolt concreted in the ground or using nails driven into the concrete foundation or other alternative means. Distribution points in the area of interest is indicative captured in the map appendix. Existing trace and focus points are highlighted in green, yellow trace inaccessible points, refocused points in red and violet points that have occurred to their long term disablement or destruction. Each zaměřovaných points in order to trace the terrain carefully documented (GPS coordinates, photos, text description) and registered. These documents are available from the contractor.
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The leveling of the newly stabilized elevation points in RA Detmarovice in 2016
Kajzar, Vlastimil ; Waclawik, Petr ; Staš, Lubomír
In the northern area of mining areas Doubrava and Karvina mines on the border RA Detmarovice and Doubrava are implemented, the mining activities. For this reason, in order to detect possible effects of the mine to the surface and surface objects twice a year height focuses, points in this area stable. From 2014 he was a contractor for these works chosen by the Institute of Geonics, v.v.i., Ostrava. The measurement results are annually presented in the final report - elevation measurements in the northern area of mining areas Doubrava and Karviná Mines I. In 2016, the existing network of height points in a cadastral municipality Dětmarovice expanded by 11 new points. New points are stabilized by means of steel bench mark on objects. Elevation point near house No. 713 is a stabilized form of measuring support cast-in steel casing
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Access to Information and Access to Justice in Environmental Matters in the Republic of Irealand and the Czech Republic
Vítková, Martina ; Stejskal, Vojtěch (advisor) ; Sobotka, Michal (referee)
This diploma thesis deals with access to environmental information and access to justice in environmental matters introduced by Aarhus Convention in the specific conditions of Czech Republic and Ireland. These rights are considered to be very important tools for environmental protection. At a time when people threaten their own existence by negative interference with the environment it is necessary that effective means for its protection exist. These means are access to environmental information and access to justice in environmental matters, which together can be called as environmental procedural rights. The first chapter of this thesis presents the sources of environmental procedural law and observes the development of law at international, European and national level. The most important international document in this field is the Aarhus Convention that was adopted in 1998 by most of the European countries and that provides for access to environmental information, access to justice and public participation in environmental decision-making. This convention has largely affected the law of the European Union, where several directives has been adopted, including most importantly the Directive 2003/4/EC on access to environmental information and the Directive 2003/35/EC on public participation in...
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