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Impacts of European Bailout Programs on SMEs Distress rate
Tóthová, Simona ; Parrák, Radovan (advisor) ; Schneider, Ondřej (referee)
Master Thesis - Simona Tothova Abstract This thesis empirically investigates impact of countries' bailouts on probability of SME segment distress. The impact is examined by multi-period logit model where dependent variable is distress rate and explanatory variables includes self-constructed bailout variable, several binary predictors and firm-specific and macroeconomic control variables. The hypotheses are tested on dataset for period from 2005 to 2013 including observations from seven European countries which received financial assistance program (bailout) from Troika. Every bailout from Troika comes with the requirement for austerity measures and our results suggest that impact of bailouts on SMEs probability of distress are depended on the success of application in individual countries and the impacts are more positive in non euro-zone countries. Keywords Bailout, Financial crisis, Credit risk, SME segment, Distress rate Author's e-mail tothova.simona@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail rado.parrak@gmail.com
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Models of default prediction of a client
Hezoučká, Šárka ; Černý, Rostislav (advisor) ; Hurt, Jan (referee)
The aim of the presented work is to investigate possible improvement of scor- ing models prediction power in retail credit segment by using structural models estimating the future development of behavioral score. These models contain the information about past development of the behavioral score by parameters which take into account the sensitivity of clients' probability of default on in- dividual market and life changes. These parameters are estimated with Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods based on score history. Eight different types of struc- tural models were applied on the real data. The diversification measure of indivi- dual models is compared using the Gini coefficient. These structural models were compared with each other and also with the existing scoring model of the credit institution which provided the underlying data. 1
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Credit Default Swap
Kratochvíl, Matěj ; Chudoba, Martin (advisor) ; Hurt, Jan (referee)
of the Bachelor Thesis Title: Credit Default Swap Author: Matěj Kratochvíl Department: Department of Probability and Mathematical Statistics Supervisor: Mgr. et Mgr. Martin Chudoba Abstract: The thesis deals with basic credit derivative - credit default swap. The aim of the first part is to explain its mechanism, contract elements, settlement, and to show practical examples of investment. The second part attempts to clarify how the arbitrage possibilities between bond market and credit derivatives market drive credit default swap prices to a certain range. Further there is presented a simple pricing model and possibilities of its exploitation. Examples are provided for better understanding. The third part focuses on counterparty default risk in credit default swap. Keywords: CDS, default intensity, credit risk
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Credit risk
Srbová, Eliška ; Herman, Jiří (advisor) ; Hurt, Jan (referee)
This thesis deals with credit risk and selected methods of its evalua- tion. It is focused on assumptions, calculation methods, results and specifics of the CreditMetrics and the CreditRisk+ models. The CreditRisk+ model analytically determines the portfolio credit losses distribution that is caused by defaults of counterparties. In the CreditMetrics model, the credit migration risk is addition- ally considered and the future portfolio value distribution is calculated using the Monte Carlo simulation. The third approach covered in this thesis is the Solvency II, the set of requirements proposed by the European Union for determination of regulatory capital for insurance companies. In the practical part the three ap- proaches are applied on a set of three portfolios of different credit quality. Their results, particularly the determined level of capital required to cover the risk of unexpected credit losses, are analyzed and compared.
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Markov chains and credit risk theory
Cvrčková, Květa ; Prokešová, Michaela (advisor) ; Lachout, Petr (referee)
Markov chains have been widely used to the credit risk measurement in the last years. Using these chains we can model movements and distribution of clients within rating grades. However, various types of markov chains could be used. The goal of the theses is to present these types together with their advan- tages and disadvantages. We focus our attention primarily on various parameter estimation methods and hypotheses testing about the parameters. The theses should help the reader with a decision, which model of a markov chain and which method of estimation should be used for him observed data. We focus our attention primarily on the following models: a discrete-time markov chain, a continuous-time markov chain (we estimate based on continuous- time observations even discrete-time observations), moreover we present an even- tuality of using semi-markov chains and semiparametric multiplicative hazard model applied on transition intensities. We illustrate the presented methods on simulation experiments and simu- lation studies in the concluding part. Keywords: credit risk, markov chain, estimates in markov chains, probability of default 1
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An Empirical Analysis of Liquidity Situation and Interbank Rates in the Czech Republic during Global Crisis
Lešanovská, Jitka ; Geršl, Adam (advisor) ; von Terzi, Martina (referee)
This diploma thesis focuses on the development of the interbank market liquidity and interest rates in the Czech interbank market with special focus on the period of global crisis. We analyze determinants of the interbank interest rates and their development with respect to the key monetary policy rate. We explain the significant departure of the interbank interest rates from the key monetary policy rate (impairment of monetary policy transmission) during the global crisis by an increase in risk premia on interbank lending. The source of the risk premia is decomposed into the individual components such as liquidity risk, counterparty risk, foreign influence and other factors. Their contribution to the overall risk premia over time during the global crisis is analyzed. We find that the liquidity risk was the key determinant of tensions in the Czech interbank market in the beginning of the global crisis. However, its influence weakened over time while the role of counterparty risk increased. Keywords: interbank market, liquidity, interest rates, crisis, risk premia, credit risk, liquidity risk, counterparty risk JEL classification: G190, G210
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Stress Testing of the Banking Sector in Emerging Markets A Case of the Selected Balkan Countries
Vukelić, Tatjana ; Jakubík, Petr (advisor) ; Mejstřík, Michal (referee)
Stress testing is a macro-prudential analytical method of assessing the financial system's resilience to adverse events. This thesis describes the methodology of the stress tests and illustrates the stress testing for credit and market risks on the real bank-by-bank data in the two Balkan countries: Croatia and Serbia. Credit risk is captured by the macroeconomic credit risk models that estimate the default rates of the corporate and the household sectors. Setting-up the framework for the countries that were not much covered in former studies and that face the limited availability of data has been the main challenge of the thesis. The outcome can help to reveal possible risks to financial stability. The methods described in the thesis can be further developed and applied to the emerging markets that suffer from the similar data limitations. JEL Classification: E37, G21, G28 Keywords: banking, credit risk, default rate, macro stress testing, market risk
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Discrimination measures in credit risk
Polak, Michal ; Pešta, Michal (advisor) ; Zahradník, Petr (referee)
Scoring models represent a fundamental tool for the modern management of credit risk. This is mainly due to a significant development in the field of information technology. Such models are used not only when providing credit, but also in strategies relating to the future management of credit risk, or in strategies connected with enforcing receivables. In my thesis I deal with discrimination measures used in the validation of diversification potential of logistic scoring models. At the beginning, I focus on the term 'risk'. Then, I introduce a basic division of scoring models. Next, I describe the method of scoring logistic regression, I concentrate on estimating parameters, their significance and on testing their relevance. For the measurement and illustration of diversification potential of the model I mention the most commonly used methods such as the Lorenz and ROC curve, the Gini coeficient, the c-statistic as well as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. Finally, I apply the theoretical knowledge to real data. I design a scoring model and subsequently compare the discrimination measures which it contains. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Výpočet korelace v úvěrovém portfoliu a její vliv na celkové kreditní riziko portfolia
Pacovský, Matěj ; Kopa, Miloš (advisor) ; Dostál, Petr (referee)
In recent years many works employed the topic of the estimation of the asset value correlation from the portfolio of debtors and their properties. The results vary depending on the methods used or the data sets, on which the model was applied. The Master Thesis describes the methods of estimation of the asset value correlation from 5-year default performance of small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) debtors of Komercni Banka. Each method is firstly described in detail and then applied. Estimations of the asset value correlation are performed in rating and industrial homogeneous group. The conclusion contains a comparison of resulting capital with a former Basel correlation and the capital when our estimations of the asset correlation are used as a parameters. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Credit Risk Models and Their Relationship with Economic Cycle
Jakubík, Petr ; Teplý, Petr (advisor) ; Mejstřík, Michal (referee)
The significance of credit risk models has increased with the introduction of new Basel accord known as Basel II. The aim of this study is default rate modeling. This thesis follows the two possible approaches of a macro credit risk modeling. First, empirical models are investigated. Second, a latent factor model based on Merton's idea is introduced. Both of these models are derived from individual default probability models. We employed data over the time period from 1988 to 2003 of the Finnish economy in the first part of this thesis. Time series of bankruptcy and firm's numbers were used. Aggregate data for whole economy as well as industry specific data were available. First, linear vector autoregressive models was used in case of dynamic empirical model. We examined how significant macroeconomic indicators determined the default rate in the whole economy and in the industry specific sector. However these models cannot provide microeconomic foundation as latent factor models. We employed a one- factor model in our estimation although, multi-factor models were also considered. A one-factor model was estimated using disaggregated industrial data. This estimation can help understand relation between credit risk and macroeconomic indicators. Obtained results were used in the second part of this...
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